Sg1
Conservative
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 22, 2023 10:01:14 GMT
Obviously by-elections in usually unwinnable seats in the second half of a Parliamentary termthrow up very young career path politician MPs, it's how the selection process works and it's why Chloe Smith is retiring before 40 I do wonder what the red room would have made of a 25 year old very well connected kid with a blue rosette winning Hartlepool Apparently being a Tory is when a centre-left MP is a slightly posh? Who knew. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 22, 2023 10:02:43 GMT
I have family not far from this seat, and giving the Tories that much of a hiding in an unnecessary by-election (partly because it is unnecessary) is a very Yorkshire thing to do.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 22, 2023 10:06:14 GMT
Clement Attlee and Tony Benn were pure Red Tories, glad it’s finally being recognised. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 22, 2023 10:20:16 GMT
Obviously by-elections in usually unwinnable seats in the second half of a Parliamentary termthrow up very young career path politician MPs, it's how the selection process works and it's why Chloe Smith is retiring before 40 I do wonder what the red room would have made of a 25 year old very well connected kid with a blue rosette winning Hartlepool He is the sort of wimpish little prick that gives even party hack Clones a bad name. |
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greenhert
Green
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Post by greenhert on Jul 22, 2023 10:44:38 GMT
Do you know the most annoying bit of all this? Nigel, who I know quite well, has stood down and his staff and office will get wrapped up. That will cost the tax payer money....as did the by-election. The Labour candidate who is now elected, will have little choice but to set up a new constituency office and employ staff to work in it.....this will all cost the taxpayer money. Some time in the next 15 months he will lose the seat and a new Conservative MP will have to set up an office.....etc etc etc But I guess that is democracy Will he lose next time, assuming he is selected for the new Selby seat? If he is selected for the new Selby seat, which includes parts of Leeds, he has a decent chance in my opinion. The claims about "1977 in reverse" are correct except this time there are boundary changes coming. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 22, 2023 10:51:35 GMT
Obviously by-elections in usually unwinnable seats in the second half of a Parliamentary termthrow up very young career path politician MPs, it's how the selection process works and it's why Chloe Smith is retiring before 40 I do wonder what the red room would have made of a 25 year old very well connected kid with a blue rosette winning Hartlepool Quoting in aid a complete crank and fraud like Beckett is maybe not the wisest move on your part. The winning Tory in Hartlepool was older, but had little connection with the constituency - whereas Mather is actually from the Selby area originally. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 22, 2023 11:09:04 GMT
All the things listed in the previous post [EDIT: previous post but one!] that needlessly cost the taxpayer money were caused by Mr Evans resigning in a fit of pique because he'd attached himself to the cult of Johnson instead of being a Conservative for all seasons. And the last of them might not even come to pass. Will be interesting to see which of the successor seats is considered a nailed-on Tory win (albeit by somebody whose biases are well known on here) and if Mather actually contests that constituency. he's Adams not Evans. Nigel Evans remains in Parliament. Yes of course. My mind must've slipped over to the other side of the Pennines for a moment there! For all Evans' faults, I could not accuse him of being a member of the cult of Boris. Remark withdrawn. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 22, 2023 11:20:37 GMT
Obviously by-elections in usually unwinnable seats in the second half of a Parliamentary termthrow up very young career path politician MPs, it's how the selection process works and it's why Chloe Smith is retiring before 40 I do wonder what the red room would have made of a 25 year old very well connected kid with a blue rosette winning Hartlepool Quoting in aid a complete crank and fraud like Beckett is maybe not the wisest move on your part. The winning Tory in Hartlepool was older, but had little connection with the constituency - whereas Mather is actually from the Selby area originally. The appalling remarks of Beckett, mirroring the less than worthy ones of Johnny Mercer, ignore the fact that Mr Beckett's hero, Tony Benn, was also elected at 25 years old and had a far more privileged background than Keir Mather. What one can say of Tony Benn is that he would have warmly congratulated the new MP. offered him a listening ear and, whatever differences they may have had, been staunch in his defence. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 22, 2023 11:57:12 GMT
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 22, 2023 12:43:26 GMT
Any credible speculation about how the different wards voted? Can obviously make some guesses, but with such a big swing i doubt UNS is too much use. It's stretching my LSOA analysis to the limit, but as a very rough estimate, these would be some figures for the pre unitary wards here (with minor ward boundary changes noted below). Instead of UNS, I used raking to create these figures from my original 2019 estimates - this is a fairly similar technique to UNS but works better for such large swings as this where a non-linear approach is needed.
Some important warnings and caveats before we begin: - This is based on purely demographics* from the 2011 Census† - I've gone into more detail about these issues at the end of the post as they're a little involved.
- There have been various boundary changes so the LSOAs and wards don't always match - but in general I've made them fit fairly well. The main exception is in the Ainsty, where there are also split wards; here I have merged the Huby area in Washburn ward into Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale and the small part of Claro ward in the seat is split between Spofforth and Marston Moor. I have also split Selby West ward into Selby North and Selby West - the current ward here is very large and splitting into its two main parts makes the Selby figures more granular which I think may be useful.
- There was no candidate for Reform last time but I can use how the Brexit Party would have been expected to do here had they stood a candidate as a baseline. For Michael Jordan there is a similar issue as while he did stand last time I don't have a specific model for the Yorkshire Party - these figures are instead based on my models for predicting the nationalist parties (essentially I tweaked the SNP model to work outwith Scotland and to produce much lower vote shares that would be more reasonable for the Yorkshire Party).
- The votes for the smaller parties seem a little too high in the rural areas and a little too low in Selby - particularly in the case of the Lib Dems. I think this is due to the way the raking algorithm works - essentially Labour's strength in Selby means everyone else gets their estimated vote reduced there, while in the rural areas everyone gets their estimate increased due to Tory weakness.
But with that out the way, here are my rough figures for the various wards:
| Ward | CON | LAB | LD | REF | GRN | MJ | OTH | | Appleton Roebuck & Church Fenton | 40.5% | 38.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | | Barlby Village | 35.3% | 46.5% | 2.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | | Brayton | 33.8% | 46.2% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.3% | | Byram and Brotherton | 31.6% | 45.8% | 1.9% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | | Camblesforth & Carlton | 41.0% | 42.8% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.8% | | Cawood & Wistow | 41.5% | 38.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | | Derwent | 42.1% | 38.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.2% | | Eggborough | 39.0% | 41.5% | 2.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | | Escrick | 46.4% | 29.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | | Hambleton | 37.4% | 43.2% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | | Monk Fryston | 38.3% | 39.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | | Riccall | 39.8% | 41.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | | Selby East | 15.3% | 68.8% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | | Selby North | 16.1% | 64.6% | 1.1% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | | Selby West | 28.6% | 49.9% | 3.2% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | | Sherburn in Elmet | 28.6% | 52.2% | 2.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | | South Milford | 43.9% | 37.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.8% | | Tadcaster | 27.7% | 55.0% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | | Thorpe Willoughby | 38.1% | 43.1% | 2.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | | Whitley | 40.1% | 40.9% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | | Marston Moor | 42.2% | 35.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | | Ouseburn | 35.1% | 41.1% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | | Spofforth with Lower Wharfedale | 42.5% | 33.6% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2%
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* The main issue here is that the Green strength in Ouseburn wouldn't be picked up - davidh mentions their vote was very geographically concentrated and I assume it would be around there. The model does pick up a lot of Labour strength there, specifically in Green Hammerton - there's a boarding school which skews local demographics and makes the area seem younger and more diverse than it is - but this doesn't seem very realistic and my guess is the Conservatives carried all of the Ainsty wards. Obviously not knowing about local political factors also means local incumbency (such as Michael Jordan in Camblesforth and Carlton) isn't picked up. † This is a bit of an issue as while generally this isn't an area seeing huge demographic change, there has been a fair amount of new housing built. For instance there is quite an upmarket estate which has expanded in part of Selby East ward which means the Tory vote there is an underestimate. And yes, I will get round to doing a version based on the 2021 census figures at some point - this time I'll also do it at an Output Area level which will mean more granular figures and so less issues with ward boundaries in future analyses.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 22, 2023 13:40:52 GMT
The figures in Bryam & Brotherton are very similar to those in the local elections of 2015 (Lab 44 Con 32.6 UKIP 23.4). This was the only ward outside Selby/Barlby that Labour carried that year, borders and is somewhat demographically similar to the Knottingley/Castleford area of Wakefield. Given that, and that the Conservatives carried this constituency by a 25% margin that year, you'd think that would be rather stronger for Labour than your model suggests
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Jul 22, 2023 13:54:26 GMT
The word from the count is that Labour carried Ouseburn ward
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 22, 2023 14:00:47 GMT
The figures in Bryam & Brotherton are very similar to those in the local elections of 2015 (Lab 44 Con 32.6 UKIP 23.4). This was the only ward outside Selby/Barlby that Labour carried that year, borders and is somewhat demographically similar to the Knottingley/Castleford area of Wakefield. Given that, and that the Conservatives carried this constituency by a 25% margin that year, you'd think that would be rather stronger for Labour than your model suggests You are almost certainly right here - there are two main issues which have caused the rather weak Labour performance there, one being down to the model and the other being down to boundaries. Because I've used 2019 as a baseline here, my model will have picked up on the particularly weak Labour showings in Castleford and places like it - and I suspect the various demographic similarities means it predicts Labour did relatively badly in Bryam and Brotherton then. This is probably why it's also identified as somewhere Reform did well - the Brexit Party did well in working class ex mining areas in Yorkshire, so it assume Bryam would follow this trend too. I do think the area probably saw a bigger swing to the Conservatives than the seat as a whole between 2017 and 2019, but it would still be fairly good Labour territory. Regarding the boundaries, Fairburn is in Bryam and Brotherton ward but is mostly in a census LSOA which extends into Monk Fryston ward. I couldn't split the LSOA so I decided to include it as part of B&B - meaning there are some villages like Burton Salmon which would have been incorrectly included within the ward, further reducing the margin. For what it's worth, the core Bryam and Brotherton LSOA (which essentially just includes those villages) was estimated as being 51.1% Lab, 24.0% Con, 13.1% Reform. That does seem a more plausible figure for how the ward might have voted. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 22, 2023 14:03:11 GMT
The word from the count is that Labour carried Ouseburn ward The rural backlash is real. |
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Post by kvasir on Jul 22, 2023 14:35:31 GMT
For some reason, I cannot read Great Ouseburn without remembering Blackadder saying "Great Boo's up" and therefore it always puts a smile on my face when around those parts.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 22, 2023 14:44:11 GMT
The word from the count is that Labour carried Ouseburn ward The rural backlash is real. How much of a dent in Sunak's majority could we see in Richmond and Northallerton next time? Hague did rather well in 2001 there as Leader despite the national circumstances but he was of course opposition leader so probably they liked his increased profile. Plus there was already a sizeable swing there in '97 (but Labour still couldn't get closer than 10,000 votes behind). Major did see his majority reduced considerably in '97 but I think there were boundary changes and Huntingdon still remained one of the, if not the, safest seat nationally. I don't think Blair saw any major swing (majority-wise) against him despite the Iraq backlash in 2005. |
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 22, 2023 15:49:30 GMT
The word from the count is that Labour carried Ouseburn ward The rural backlash is real. I'm going to put this down to NIMBYISM: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maltkiln |
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Post by batman on Jul 22, 2023 16:28:55 GMT
Obviously by-elections in usually unwinnable seats in the second half of a Parliamentary termthrow up very young career path politician MPs, it's how the selection process works and it's why Chloe Smith is retiring before 40 I do wonder what the red room would have made of a 25 year old very well connected kid with a blue rosette winning Hartlepool Apparently being a Tory is when a centre-left MP is a slightly posh? Who knew. being suspended from the Labour Party for racist comments is not exactly Labour either, is it. I already had zero respect for Howard Beckett, now I have less than that. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 22, 2023 16:43:11 GMT
We can also say, and without fear of litigation, that he misappropriated funds from sick former miners. There are also some other things that might be said of him as well, but I gather we'll have to wait on the CPS for that.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 22, 2023 16:48:28 GMT
Why is there a rural backlash? What specifically are they lashing back against ? Genuine question as I have no real connection to rural England
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