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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 9:24:17 GMT
John Curtice said that this was the second largest ever swing to Labour in a by-election. Is this true? The largest swing always cited was Fulham East in 1933 when it was 29.2% - were none bigger in the 1992-97 parliament?
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 9:29:42 GMT
Good god, how old is he? He looks 12! I demand a recount! He can’t be less than about 19. But anyway, someone the other day pointed out that he (would be / is) the first MP born after Blair’s victory in 1997. I suppose this also means that for the first time I am more than twice as old as an MP. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2023 9:30:21 GMT
John Curtice said that this was the second largest ever swing to Labour in a by-election. Is this true? The largest swing always cited was Fulham East in 1933 when it was 29.2% - were none bigger in the 1992-97 parliament? Dudley West in late 1994 surely? I suspect that is the one Curtice was thinking of too. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 21, 2023 9:30:50 GMT
John Curtice said that this was the second largest ever swing to Labour in a by-election. Is this true? The largest swing always cited was Fulham East in 1933 when it was 29.2% - were none bigger in the 1992-97 parliament? Dudley West was bigger. The problem is that Wikipedia’s by-election records page starts in 1945; it’s the second biggest since then. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2023 9:32:45 GMT
Labour not exactly sounding confident here eitehr.. Given the actual result, what on earth was this about? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 9:32:51 GMT
Yes I thought Dudley West must have been bigger - I should have checked that first. 29.1% there so literally a fraction below the Fulham East swing
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 21, 2023 9:35:34 GMT
Labour not exactly sounding confident here eitehr.. Given the actual result, what on earth was this about? Either no-one had told Judith Cummins what was going on or she was engaged in some absurd expectation management. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 9:42:43 GMT
Labour not exactly sounding confident here eitehr.. Given the actual result, what on earth was this about? I guess that they weren’t sure about some of their sampling, and that they didn’t have detailed base line information from last time, and that there were lumpy geographical variations in different parts of the constituency. All combining to make them less sure and more nervous. |
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Post by Dave Morgan on Jul 21, 2023 10:09:32 GMT
Pretty good article..  Interesting article. Selby and Ainsty is one of the most "mortgaged" constituencies in the country, 36th highest in England and Wales. Its certainly become something I know people now talk about (I was at a kids birthday parents at the weekend and the parents were talking about it then) |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jul 21, 2023 12:30:08 GMT
I take it that at least part of the constituency's northern fringe have never had a Labour MP before? The Ainsty section (ex-Harrogate district and part of Vale of York 1997-2010) has never had a Labour MP I'm fairly certain I have never set foot in any part of this seat - though I must've traveled through it on several occasions. Maybe I should've made a point of visiting the unsullied-by-Labour portion while I had the chance... |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 21, 2023 12:36:39 GMT
Can I have some percentages and swing figures please. That's a swing of 23.7% To put that in context, Richmond (Yorks) would fall on a swing of 23.6%. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 12:47:47 GMT
And as if to prove the point above, a bit of UNS madness (Labour do indeed gain Richmond (Yorks) by 0.2% - and Somerton & Frome  )  | Lab | 524 | | Con | 43 | | SNP | 38 | | LD | 23 | | PC | 2 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 |
| | | Lab Majority | 398 |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 21, 2023 13:09:37 GMT
And as if to prove the point above, a bit of UNS madness (Labour do indeed gain Richmond (Yorks) by 0.2% - and Somerton & Frome ) | Lab | 524 | | Con | 43 | | SNP | 38 | | LD | 23 | | PC | 2 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 |
| | | Lab Majority | 398 |
Are you working on the other 2? Please... |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 21, 2023 13:51:54 GMT
And as if to prove the point above, a bit of UNS madness (Labour do indeed gain Richmond (Yorks) by 0.2% - and Somerton & Frome ) | Lab | 524 | | Con | 43 | | SNP | 38 | | LD | 23 | | PC | 2 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 |
| | | Lab Majority | 398 |
Are you working on the other 2? Please... maybe one of the combined swing across all three as well? |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 21, 2023 14:04:17 GMT
The Ainsty section (ex-Harrogate district and part of Vale of York 1997-2010) has never had a Labour MP I'm fairly certain I have never set foot in any part of this seat - though I must've traveled through it on several occasions. Maybe I should've made a point of visiting the unsullied-by-Labour portion while I had the chance... I've stepped on the ground at the A64 service stations near Tadcaster. Otherwise, I've only ever driven through the Ainsty end. I had a day's work at Selby HSBC, which I think is my entire history there. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 21, 2023 15:44:16 GMT
I used to live in this constituency - before and post-boundary changes. It really is a remarkable result.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 15:52:25 GMT
Are you working on the other 2? Please... maybe one of the combined swing across all three as well?  | Lab | 311 | | Con | 218 | | SNP | 52 | | LD | 45 | | PC | 4 | | Grn | 1 | | Speaker | 1 | | | | | | |
Amusing that on this scenario, Labour gain Uxbridge & South Ruislip easily, Tories hold Selby & Ainsty comfortably and Somerton & Frome very narrowly |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 21, 2023 16:52:43 GMT
Any credible speculation about how the different wards voted? Can obviously make some guesses, but with such a big swing i doubt UNS is too much use.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jul 21, 2023 17:15:52 GMT
So the other day, when I said that Labour were rubbish at by elections... Nailed it again James. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 21, 2023 17:47:51 GMT
Any credible speculation about how the different wards voted? Can obviously make some guesses, but with such a big swing i doubt UNS is too much use. As I have said before, UNS is no longer useful due to greater and more entrenched electoral divergence. |
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