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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 21, 2023 3:29:13 GMT
He looks younger than Mhairi Black did when she was elected at 20. I think that's the effect of living in Paisley vs Selby for most of your life. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 21, 2023 3:33:49 GMT
Ashfield 1977 in reverse.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 3:54:28 GMT
Oh my goodness I didn’t realise until now how young he is. He’s the most beautiful MP since Matthew Taylor in 1987.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 3:55:30 GMT
Green Party in 3rd place in all three by-elections. They wait 14 years for a held deposit in parliamentary by-elections and then two come along at once.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 3:57:48 GMT
Good god, how old is he? He looks 12! I demand a recount! He can’t be less than about 19. But anyway, someone the other day pointed out that he (would be / is) the first MP born after Blair’s victory in 1997. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2023 4:20:13 GMT
Oh my goodness I didn’t realise until now how young he is. He’s the most beautiful MP since Matthew Taylor in 1987. Stuart Donaldson in West Aberdeenshire wasn’t so bad. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 21, 2023 4:40:37 GMT
I take it that at least part of the constituency's northern fringe have never had a Labour MP before?
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Jul 21, 2023 7:17:02 GMT
David Herdson (ex-Con, now Yorkshire party - reliable) calls Selby for Labour: "I'm at the count in the #SelbyByelection and Labour will win comfortably. My guess is a 4-6k majority, though that's still an educated guess. Close for a very distant third between Yorkshire, Reform and Lib the Dems." He's a member of this site too |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261 
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Post by polupolu on Jul 21, 2023 7:25:49 GMT
Changed your mind a bit, since your entry to the prediction competition?
Perhaps the Keynes quote is in John's mind? The usual form is something along the lines of:
Keynes was accused of inconsistency when switching his position on something but replied:
When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
(As with most good quotes there are other versions and other people expressing similar views. However he certainly did write something along these lines in one of his publications).
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Post by London Lad on Jul 21, 2023 7:30:49 GMT
Pretty good article..  |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jul 21, 2023 8:06:43 GMT
A fantastic result for Labour and for Keir. Politics and parliament are dominated by old fogeys and it is time for a new generation to be heard in the House. Of course for the Tories, and especially Mercer it seems, anyone under the age of 50 should not be allowed into parliament as they have nothing to offer. Thankfully our party knows better.....
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 21, 2023 8:20:08 GMT
Would be interesting to know what the turnout was across different parts of the seat. If it were lower in Selby town then that would suggest that the rural and previously Tory areas contributed significantly to the result, which would make it all the more remarkable.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 21, 2023 8:25:41 GMT
David Herdson (ex-Con, now Yorkshire party - reliable) calls Selby for Labour: "I'm at the count in the #SelbyByelection and Labour will win comfortably. My guess is a 4-6k majority, though that's still an educated guess. Close for a very distant third between Yorkshire, Reform and Lib the Dems." He's a member of this site too Ended up being an accurate prediction! |
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 21, 2023 8:28:10 GMT
He's a member of this site too Ended up being an accurate prediction! Apart from getting the third placed party completely wrong!  |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Jul 21, 2023 8:32:14 GMT
Ended up being an accurate prediction! Apart from getting the third placed party completely wrong! There was a follow up tweet where he said he'd forgotten the Greens and that they were also in the mix for third. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 21, 2023 8:34:08 GMT
Green Party in 3rd place in all three by-elections. They wait 14 years for a held deposit in parliamentary by-elections and then two come along at once. The Conservatives were the only party to save all 3 deposits, of course, Labour and the Greens saving 2 each and the lib Dems 1 and nobody else managing at all. 8 saved deposits across 3 by-elections. |
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 21, 2023 8:39:03 GMT
Green Party in 3rd place in all three by-elections. They wait 14 years for a held deposit in parliamentary by-elections and then two come along at once. The Conservatives were the only party to save all 3 deposits, of course, Labour and the Greens saving 2 each and the lib Dems 1 and nobody else managing at all. 8 saved deposits across 3 by-elections. The Lib Dems continuing their record in this Parliament of either winning or losing their deposit. |
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davidh
Forum Regular
Posts: 39
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Post by davidh on Jul 21, 2023 8:55:09 GMT
Apart from getting the third placed party completely wrong! There was a follow up tweet where he said he'd forgotten the Greens and that they were also in the mix for third. This one - I was box-counting at the time so just nipped out to dash off the tweet and inadvertently missed the Greens from the race for third (hence also 'Lib the Dems'!). As the follow-up implied, though I didn't want to say for obvious reasons, we thought they would probably finish third but the Green vote was very geographically concentrated so had the widest margin of error in our figures, even before you add in that we didn't have the relative turnouts for the various boxes or accurate baseline figures for their strong polling districts. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Jul 21, 2023 9:02:39 GMT
The Conservatives were the only party to save all 3 deposits, of course, Labour and the Greens saving 2 each and the lib Dems 1 and nobody else managing at all. 8 saved deposits across 3 by-elections. The Lib Dems continuing their record in this Parliament of either winning or losing their deposit. That record was broken by Chester earlier this year. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2023 9:20:54 GMT
I take it that at least part of the constituency's northern fringe have never had a Labour MP before? The Ainsty section (ex-Harrogate district and part of Vale of York 1997-2010) has never had a Labour MP |
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