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Post by kvasir on Jul 20, 2023 15:13:31 GMT
But I mean at any election there's always going to be a bunch of close seats that would have gone this way or that with a slightly larger swing. This is how the Corbynistats sustain the myth of them also winning in 2017 Or look what might have been in 2019 0.2%Bedford0.3%Coventry NW
Alyn & Deeside0.5%Dagenham & Rainham
Coventry South0.6%Weaver Vale0.8%Warwick & Leamington1.2%Wansbeck
Newport West1.3% Conservative majority of 100Stockton North1.4% Yvette Cooper loses seatNormanton, Pontefract & Castleford
Hemsworth1.6%Canterbury1.7% Chesterfield
Warrington North
Oldham East & Saddleworth1.9% Tim Farron decapitatedWolverhampton SEWestmorland & Lonsdale2%Hull East2.1%Gower2.7%Wentworth & Dearne2.8% Lancaster & Fleetwood
Doncaster Central
Newport East
Halifax2.9% Conservative majority of 134, Miliband loses seatDoncaster North
Bradford SouthVery true. My point was more a reflection on the 1997 seats that could have fallen and their specific narrative effects. Labour taking the last Tory seat in the North East and the last two seats in the Manchester suburbs, Labour and Liberal Democrats winning big in rural East Anglia, Liberal Democrats basically nearly completely carrying the entire South West. There would of course be narrative changes like that in all elections; in 2019 the 'red wall' collapse narrative would be very different if Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper had also both lost. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 20, 2023 15:24:45 GMT
But I mean at any election there's always going to be a bunch of close seats that would have gone this way or that with a slightly larger swing. This is how the Corbynistats sustain the myth of them also winning in 2017 Or look what might have been in 2019 1.9% Tim Farron decapitatedWolverhampton SEWestmorland & Lonsdale2%I know that First Past The Post can be brutal sometimes but that would be a Modest Proposal |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 20, 2023 15:25:27 GMT
But I mean at any election there's always going to be a bunch of close seats that would have gone this way or that with a slightly larger swing. This is how the Corbynistats sustain the myth of them also winning in 2017 Or look what might have been in 2019 1.9% Tim Farron decapitatedWolverhampton SEWestmorland & Lonsdale2%I know that First Past The Post can be brutal sometimes but that would be a Modest Proposal  |
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Rural Radical
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Post by Rural Radical on Jul 20, 2023 20:18:47 GMT
If they had gained it in 1997 then they almost certainly would have held it in 2001. not necessarily, there was the odd seat which was Labour in 97 but not 2001. Castle Point I think was one Romford and Norfolk North West were the other 2 |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 20, 2023 20:49:43 GMT
If Labour wins Selby & Ainsty, the net swing from Conservative to Labour will be the biggest in any parliamentary by-election since Staffordshire South East, 11th April 1996.
I’m cautiously thinking that there might be a narrow Conservative hold in Selby & Ainsty, and a more-narrow-than-expected Labour gain in Uxbridge & South Ruislip.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 20, 2023 21:21:11 GMT
If Labour wins Selby & Ainsty, the net swing from Conservative to Labour will be the biggest in any parliamentary by-election since Staffordshire South East, 11th April 1996. I’m cautiously thinking that there might be a narrow Conservative hold in Selby & Ainsty, and a more-narrow-than-expected Labour gain in Uxbridge & South Ruislip.
Changed your mind a bit, since your entry to the prediction competition?
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jul 20, 2023 21:23:42 GMT
If Labour wins Selby & Ainsty, the net swing from Conservative to Labour will be the biggest in any parliamentary by-election since Staffordshire South East, 11th April 1996. I’m cautiously thinking that there might be a narrow Conservative hold in Selby & Ainsty, and a more-narrow-than-expected Labour gain in Uxbridge & South Ruislip.
Changed your mind a bit, since your entry to the prediction competition?
Perhaps the Keynes quote is in John's mind? |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 20, 2023 21:24:14 GMT
If Labour wins Selby & Ainsty, the net swing from Conservative to Labour will be the biggest in any parliamentary by-election since Staffordshire South East, 11th April 1996. I’m cautiously thinking that there might be a narrow Conservative hold in Selby & Ainsty, and a more-narrow-than-expected Labour gain in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Staffs SE is the basis for the current Tamworth seat, so there could be an interesting comparison 27 years later. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 20, 2023 21:26:49 GMT
If Labour wins Selby & Ainsty, the net swing from Conservative to Labour will be the biggest in any parliamentary by-election since Staffordshire South East, 11th April 1996. I’m cautiously thinking that there might be a narrow Conservative hold in Selby & Ainsty, and a more-narrow-than-expected Labour gain in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Changed your mind a bit, since your entry to the prediction competition?
No, because I know what “might” means |
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Post by borisminor on Jul 20, 2023 21:28:52 GMT
If Labour wins Selby & Ainsty, the net swing from Conservative to Labour will be the biggest in any parliamentary by-election since Staffordshire South East, 11th April 1996. I’m cautiously thinking that there might be a narrow Conservative hold in Selby & Ainsty, and a more-narrow-than-expected Labour gain in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. What was the largest Lab majority needed to win by one vote which they overturned was it Mid Staffordshire, 1994? |
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Post by batman on Jul 20, 2023 21:31:03 GMT
Mid Staffordshire was in 1990
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ArmchairCritic
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Jul 20, 2023 21:48:54 GMT
Yesterday at King's X I was crossing the concourse to the door up to the First Class lounge, naturally, when I happened across a chap I recognised as a senior bod at CCHQ.
We shook hands and chatted for 10 minutes about the party, why I left it and the prospects for victory at Uxbridge, Frome and Selby, where he was heading on the same train.
He didn't say they were going to lose them all but I've known him long enough to know what the expression on his face meant.
We didn't sit together on the train because he was in Second, which I think was ironic really.
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Post by willpower3 on Jul 20, 2023 22:01:18 GMT
Yesterday at King's X I was crossing the concourse to the door up to the First Class lounge, naturally, when I happened across a chap I recognised as a senior bod at CCHQ. We shook hands and chatted for 10 minutes about the party, why I left it and the prospects for victory at Uxbridge, Frome and Selby, where he was heading on the same train. He didn't say they were going to lose them all but I've known him long enough to know what the expression on his face meant. We didn't sit together on the train because he was in Second, which I think was ironic really.Ironic? Apt, surely. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 20, 2023 22:47:57 GMT
David Herdson (ex-Con, now Yorkshire party - reliable) calls Selby for Labour:
"I'm at the count in the #SelbyByelection and Labour will win comfortably. My guess is a 4-6k majority, though that's still an educated guess.
Close for a very distant third between Yorkshire, Reform and Lib the Dems."
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 20, 2023 22:53:09 GMT
David Herdson (ex-Con, now Yorkshire party - reliable) calls Selby for Labour: "I'm at the count in the #SelbyByelection and Labour will win comfortably. My guess is a 4-6k majority, though that's still an educated guess. Close for a very distant third between Yorkshire, Reform and Lib the Dems." That would suggest a swing, guessing at turnout, of 23%+. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 0:08:27 GMT
David Herdson (ex-Con, now Yorkshire party - reliable) calls Selby for Labour: "I'm at the count in the #SelbyByelection and Labour will win comfortably. My guess is a 4-6k majority, though that's still an educated guess. Close for a very distant third between Yorkshire, Reform and Lib the Dems." Because of the ULEZ issue, it would be fun if the Labour majority is less in Uxbridge &SR than in Selby & Ainsty. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 21, 2023 0:16:05 GMT
Changed your mind a bit, since your entry to the prediction competition?
Perhaps the Keynes quote is in John's mind? What Keynes quote? |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jul 21, 2023 0:48:29 GMT
44.77% turnout.
This one is going long compared to the other two.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 21, 2023 0:53:15 GMT
35,886 BPs verified.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 21, 2023 0:55:27 GMT
c35000 votes then?
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