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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 18, 2023 22:34:03 GMT
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jul 20, 2023 9:50:36 GMT
Just to note that the poll here is now closed, and we've gone for:
Lab win 75 (74%)
Con win 23 (23%)
Oth win 3 (3%)
We'll see tonight...
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Post by kvasir on Jul 20, 2023 11:01:09 GMT
Just to note that the poll here is now closed, and we've gone for: Lab win 75 (74%) Con win 23 (23%) Oth win 3 (3%) We'll see tonight... Considering how difficult this is for Labour, it suggests a poor job of expectation management. Though the momentum is clearly in Labour's direction, it is a huge ask. If Labour do win the response shouldn't be 'saw that coming, onto the next', it should be 'the Tories look well fucked now OMG'. I really hope Keir and Co pull this off, especially as it is in my neck of the woods, but the numbers are tough. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jul 20, 2023 11:52:02 GMT
Just to note that the poll here is now closed, and we've gone for: Lab win 75 (74%) Con win 23 (23%) Oth win 3 (3%) We'll see tonight... Considering how difficult this is for Labour, it suggests a poor job of expectation management. Though the momentum is clearly in Labour's direction, it is a huge ask. If Labour do win the response shouldn't be 'saw that coming, onto the next', it should be 'the Tories look well fucked now OMG'. I really hope Keir and Co pull this off, especially as it is in my neck of the woods, but the numbers are tough. I agree on one level, but the figures here are better than the betting odds for the Tories. Those odds having swung so firmly to Labour do make this seem a lot less exceptional than it is. Same with the LDs in Somerset, overturning a 19k majority is ‘expected’ and what Lib Dems do in winnable by-elections. It’s still a 19k majority to respect and tackle. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 20, 2023 11:52:58 GMT
Just to note that the poll here is now closed, and we've gone for: Lab win 75 (74%) Con win 23 (23%) Oth win 3 (3%) We'll see tonight... Considering how difficult this is for Labour, it suggests a poor job of expectation management. Though the momentum is clearly in Labour's direction, it is a huge ask. If Labour do win the response shouldn't be 'saw that coming, onto the next', it should be 'the Tories look well fucked now OMG'. I really hope Keir and Co pull this off, especially as it is in my neck of the woods, but the numbers are tough. Though if Labour do win this, there's a good chance we can win any Tamworth byelection as well. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 20, 2023 11:56:20 GMT
Considering how difficult this is for Labour, it suggests a poor job of expectation management. Though the momentum is clearly in Labour's direction, it is a huge ask. If Labour do win the response shouldn't be 'saw that coming, onto the next', it should be 'the Tories look well fucked now OMG'. I really hope Keir and Co pull this off, especially as it is in my neck of the woods, but the numbers are tough. Though if Labour do win this, there's a good chance we can win any Tamworth byelection as well. Though Tamworth was Labour until 2010. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 20, 2023 11:58:24 GMT
As was the (admittedly slightly different to this one) Selby seat.
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graham
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Post by graham on Jul 20, 2023 12:02:57 GMT
As was the (admittedly slightly different to this one) Selby seat. I believe the former boundaries there were more favourable for Labour. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 20, 2023 12:22:32 GMT
Yes it wouldn't have been Labour in 2005 and it would have been extremely close in 2001&1997
Possibly not in 2001 but maybe in 1997
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Post by willpower3 on Jul 20, 2023 12:36:02 GMT
Yes it wouldn't have been Labour in 2005 and it would have been extremely close in 2001&1997 Possibly not in 2001 but maybe in 1997 If they had gained it in 1997 then they almost certainly would have held it in 2001. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 20, 2023 13:51:18 GMT
Yes it wouldn't have been Labour in 2005 and it would have been extremely close in 2001&1997 Possibly not in 2001 but maybe in 1997 If they had gained it in 1997 then they almost certainly would have held it in 2001. not necessarily, there was the odd seat which was Labour in 97 but not 2001. Castle Point I think was one |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 20, 2023 13:57:38 GMT
Yes it wouldn't have been Labour in 2005 and it would have been extremely close in 2001&1997 Possibly not in 2001 but maybe in 1997 If they had gained it in 1997 then they almost certainly would have held it in 2001. there were five seats that were Tory gains from labour in 2001: Castle Point Upminster Romford Norfolk North West Newark |
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Post by kvasir on Jul 20, 2023 14:05:12 GMT
If they had gained it in 1997 then they almost certainly would have held it in 2001. there were five seats that were Tory gains from labour in 2001: Castle Point Upminster Romford Norfolk North West Newark And least we forget Newark was it's own special hell... 1997 was interesting because it wouldn't have taken much of a further swing at all for Labour to take a couple more very interesting seats and for the Liberal Democrats to clean up massively in the South West. It was an awful night for the Tories, but actually they could have suffered even more humiliation. I use to have the seats to hand but there were many more right on the edge. In regards to the old Selby, we cannot forget that the South York suburbs were much more friendly to New Labour than the Harrogate District rural villages are. And the next iteration of the seat takes in former mining communities in Leeds that are prime Labour territory and will be much better. This is very much the least friendly Labour seat in the area you can draw. I suspect this comes down to turnout. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2023 14:05:40 GMT
If they had gained it in 1997 then they almost certainly would have held it in 2001. there were five seats that were Tory gains from labour in 2001: Castle Point
Upminster
RomfordNorfolk North West Newark Essex man loved William Hague for some reason? |
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Post by borisminor on Jul 20, 2023 14:09:26 GMT
there were five seats that were Tory gains from labour in 2001: Castle Point Upminster Romford Norfolk North West Newark And least we forget Newark was it's own special hell... 1997 was interesting because it wouldn't have taken much of a further swing at all for Labour to take a couple more very interesting seats and for the Liberal Democrats to clean up massively in the South West. It was an awful night for the Tories, but actually they could have suffered even more humiliation. I use to have the seats to hand but there were many more right on the edge. In regards to the old Selby, we cannot forget that the South York suburbs were much more friendly to New Labour than the Harrogate District rural villages are. And the next iteration of the seat takes in former mining communities in Leeds that are prime Labour territory and will be much better. This is very much the least friendly Labour seat in the area you can draw. I suspect this comes down to turnout. From this: www.theguardian.com/politics/election2001/page/0,9030,503379,00.html. Some would have been LD facing but I haven't looked in detail. 0.1%Dorset South Bedfordshire South-West 0.2%Teignbridge Hexham Lichfield 0.3%Bury St Edmunds 0.5%Wells Meridien 0.7% - Labour majority of 220.Dorset Mid & Poole North Boston & Skegness 0.8%Beverley & Holderness Totnes 0.9%Uxbridge 1.0%Bosworth Chipping Barnet 1.1%Norfolk North 1.2%Norfolk Mid Billericay 1.4%Tiverton & Honiton 1.5%Altrincham & Sale West 1.6%Bridgwater 1.7% - Oliver Letwin loses £20bn gamble.Dorset West 1.9%Eastbourne Suffolk West Christchurch 2.1% - Gillian Shephard loses seat.Norfolk South-West Basingstoke Shropshire North 2.3%Wycombe 2.4%Surrey South-West 2.9% - Labour majority of 284, Gummer loses seat.Suffolk Coastal |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 20, 2023 14:16:26 GMT
As has been noted before and elsewhere, there were two parliamentary by-elections on 28th April 1977, which resulted in:
(a) Labour unexpectedly holding the relatively marginal seat of Grimsby, with a swing from Labour to Conservative of 7.1%;
(b) Conservative unexpectedly gaining the safe Labour seat of Ashfield, with a swing of 20.2%.
If one reverses the swings (from Conservative to Labour, instead of Labour to Conservative) and applies those net swings to today's by-elections:
(c) Conservative Party holds Uxbridge & South Ruislip by a margin of 0.9%;
(d) Labour gains Selby & Ainsty with a margin of 6.0%.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 20, 2023 14:23:51 GMT
And least we forget Newark was it's own special hell... 1997 was interesting because it wouldn't have taken much of a further swing at all for Labour to take a couple more very interesting seats and for the Liberal Democrats to clean up massively in the South West. It was an awful night for the Tories, but actually they could have suffered even more humiliation. I use to have the seats to hand but there were many more right on the edge. In regards to the old Selby, we cannot forget that the South York suburbs were much more friendly to New Labour than the Harrogate District rural villages are. And the next iteration of the seat takes in former mining communities in Leeds that are prime Labour territory and will be much better. This is very much the least friendly Labour seat in the area you can draw. I suspect this comes down to turnout. From this: www.theguardian.com/politics/election2001/page/0,9030,503379,00.html. Some would have been LD facing but I haven't looked in detail. 0.1%Dorset South
Bedfordshire South-West0.2%TeignbridgeHexham
Lichfield0.3%Bury St Edmunds
0.5%WellsMeriden0.7% - Labour majority of 220.Dorset Mid & Poole North
Boston & Skegness
0.8%Beverley & Holderness
Totnes0.9%Uxbridge1.0%Bosworth
Chipping Barnet1.1%Norfolk North
1.2%Norfolk Mid
Billericay1.4%Tiverton & Honiton
1.5%Altrincham & Sale West
1.6%Bridgwater1.7% - Oliver Letwin loses £20bn gamble.Dorset West
1.9%EastbourneSuffolk West
Christchurch2.1% - Gillian Shephard loses seat.Norfolk South-West
Basingstoke
Shropshire North2.3%Wycombe2.4%Surrey South-West
2.9% - Labour majority of 284, Gummer loses seat.Suffolk Coastal
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Post by evergreenadam on Jul 20, 2023 14:33:39 GMT
From this: www.theguardian.com/politics/election2001/page/0,9030,503379,00.html. Some would have been LD facing but I haven't looked in detail. 0.1%Dorset South
Bedfordshire South-West0.2%TeignbridgeHexham
Lichfield0.3%Bury St Edmunds
0.5%WellsMeriden0.7% - Labour majority of 220.Dorset Mid & Poole North
Boston & Skegness
0.8%Beverley & Holderness
Totnes0.9%Uxbridge1.0%Bosworth
Chipping Barnet1.1%Norfolk North
1.2%Norfolk Mid
Billericay1.4%Tiverton & Honiton
1.5%Altrincham & Sale West
1.6%Bridgwater1.7% - Oliver Letwin loses £20bn gamble.Dorset West
1.9%EastbourneSuffolk West
Christchurch2.1% - Gillian Shephard loses seat.Norfolk South-West
Basingstoke
Shropshire North2.3%Wycombe2.4%Surrey South-West
2.9% - Labour majority of 284, Gummer loses seat.Suffolk Coastal
And interesting to note how many of those the Tories lost in subsequent elections. |
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Post by kvasir on Jul 20, 2023 14:34:00 GMT
From this: www.theguardian.com/politics/election2001/page/0,9030,503379,00.html. Some would have been LD facing but I haven't looked in detail. 0.1%Dorset South
Bedfordshire South-West0.2%TeignbridgeHexham
Lichfield0.3%Bury St Edmunds
0.5%WellsMeriden0.7% - Labour majority of 220.Dorset Mid & Poole North
Boston & Skegness
0.8%Beverley & Holderness
Totnes0.9%Uxbridge1.0%Bosworth
Chipping Barnet1.1%Norfolk North
1.2%Norfolk Mid
Billericay1.4%Tiverton & Honiton
1.5%Altrincham & Sale West
1.6%Bridgwater1.7% - Oliver Letwin loses £20bn gamble.Dorset West
1.9%EastbourneSuffolk West
Christchurch2.1% - Gillian Shephard loses seat.Norfolk South-West
Basingstoke
Shropshire North2.3%Wycombe2.4%Surrey South-West
2.9% - Labour majority of 284, Gummer loses seat.Suffolk Coastal
Between Surrey South West and Suffolk Coastal they did not include: Orpington 2.6% (Liberal Democrats second) Grantham and Stamford 2.6% (Labour second) Dorset North 2.7% (Liberal Democrats second) Aldridge-Brownhills 2.7% (Labour second) Southend West 2.9% (Liberal Democrats Second) Thanet North 2.9% (Labour second) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 20, 2023 15:02:43 GMT
But I mean at any election there's always going to be a bunch of close seats that would have gone this way or that with a slightly larger swing. This is how the Corbynistats sustain the myth of them also winning in 2017
Or look what might have been in 2019
0.2%
Bedford
0.3%
Coventry NW
Alyn & Deeside
0.5%
Dagenham & Rainham
Coventry South
0.6%
Weaver Vale
0.8%
Warwick & Leamington
1.2%
Wansbeck
Newport West
1.3% Conservative majority of 100
Stockton North
1.4% Yvette Cooper loses seat
Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford
Hemsworth
1.6%
Canterbury
1.7%
Chesterfield
Warrington North
Oldham East & Saddleworth
1.9% Tim Farron decapitated
Wolverhampton SE
Westmorland & Lonsdale
2%
Hull East
2.1%
Gower
2.7%
Wentworth & Dearne
2.8%
Lancaster & Fleetwood
Doncaster Central
Newport East
Halifax
2.9% Conservative majority of 134, Miliband loses seat
Doncaster North
Bradford South
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