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Post by yellowperil on Jul 7, 2023 8:43:56 GMT
Talking to Labour Cllrs at the LGA (so by definition hardened sceptics) who have door knocked, "Surely this is too good to be true ??" Another story (from a very well known national figure) is about visiting a PV'er in a village - Q - how are you going to vote ? A - I've already voted Labour by PV Q - how have you voted in the past ? A - Conservative, & I've leafletted for them as well Q - How long ago since you leafleted for them ? A - Yesterday. Could well be all true. I can remember by rural by-elections where the Conservative tellers swore that they had just voted for us, and ones where they were going in to the Conservative committee rooms to get the latest gen, then coming straight over to us to tell us what they knew. We were a bit guarded at telling them our latest info, as they might be heading back across the road with any gossip they picked up. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2023 9:23:37 GMT
Yorkshire Post tomorrow has a constituency poll from JL & Partners commissioned by 38 Degrees: Labour 41 Conservative 29 Inexperienced pollster, large number of don't knows, let's be careful to not oversell it. They have done some polling, but not so much in VI terms. It will be interesting to see how this and the Uxbridge poll work out in practice. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 7, 2023 14:01:27 GMT
This byelection seems to have set an obscure precedent - it is the first time that resigning MP requested appointment to a Stewardship by email.  |
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Post by londonw5er on Jul 7, 2023 15:24:52 GMT
This byelection seems to have set an obscure precedent - it is the first time that resigning MP requested appointment to a Stewardship by email. I'm surprised to hear this as e-mail is not exactly new technology in 2023. Parliament does tend to be very attached to tradition though. Presumably the "correct" way to make this sort of request is for it to be hand-written in ink on fine vellum. How long will we have to wait before one is made by Whatsapp? |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591 
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 7, 2023 16:56:59 GMT
How long will we have to wait before one is made by Whatsapp? Probably not very long, perhaps that’s how Nadine will do it, further delaying proceedings no doubt. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 7, 2023 17:56:21 GMT
They have a breakdown by postcode district. YO8 (Selby itself and much of the surrounding area) Lab 46 Con 24 LS25 (including Sherburn in Elmet) Con 36 Lab 35 LS24 (Tadcaster, Church Fenton) Con 57 Lab 26 DN14 (Eggborough) Con 40 Lab 39 YO26 (Green Hammerton, Great Ouseburn) Lab 28 Con 22 (Green 36) LS22 (Kirk Deighton) Con 79 Lab 21 Some of these are very small samples of course. YO8 and YO26 together is pleasing to me somehow. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 7, 2023 19:37:45 GMT
I’d by lying if I said I knew the seat all that well, but most of those figures seem plausible.
Selby maybe seems a bit strong in favour of Labour, and I can’t see Tories doing Labour by a margin of 2-1 in Tadcaster & Church Fenton.
Otherwise, broadly in line with what I’d expect in the current climate.
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Post by stodge on Jul 7, 2023 20:21:27 GMT
The big message from this poll is the high number of Don't Knows - the "certain to vote" is around or just under half the electorate which wouldn't be a huge surprise.
With a third of men and 40% of women either in the Don't Know or Prefer Not to Say camp you have to take these figures with a bucketful of salt and a lot can and will change in the next fortnight.
Were Labour to get a 24% swing it would be an extraordinary result.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 7, 2023 20:58:02 GMT
The big message from this poll is the high number of Don't Knows - the "certain to vote" is around or just under half the electorate which wouldn't be a huge surprise. With a third of men and 40% of women either in the Don't Know or Prefer Not to Say camp you have to take these figures with a bucketful of salt and a lot can and will change in the next fortnight. Were Labour to get a 24% swing it would be an extraordinary result. Especially since only one parliamentary by-election in British history has seen a Con-Lab swing higher than this: the Dudley West by-election of 1994 where the swing from Conservative to Labour was 29.2%. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 7, 2023 22:53:04 GMT
Talking to Labour Cllrs at the LGA (so by definition hardened sceptics) who have door knocked, "Surely this is too good to be true ??" Why would Labour Cllrs at the LGA be hardened sceptics by definition? |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,181
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Post by r34t on Jul 8, 2023 6:21:46 GMT
Talking to Labour Cllrs at the LGA (so by definition hardened sceptics) who have door knocked, "Surely this is too good to be true ??" Why would Labour Cllrs at the LGA be hardened sceptics by definition? All councillors who have been around for a while are sceptics, & don’t tend to be overoptimistic. Councillors who get to go to the LGA tend to be a way up the greasy pole & similarly tend to have lost their rose tinted specs. but this is of course only the opinion of a sceptic 😁 |
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 8, 2023 17:39:35 GMT
I spent today driving around the constituency. The SDP had a stall up outside Selby Abbey; Selby town was crawling with Labour activists; somebody had just done a leaflet round in Tadcaster for Tyler Wilson-Kerr; and there are a lot of Green stakeboards in the Ainsty villages where their candidate is the county councillor.
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Post by kvasir on Jul 9, 2023 1:15:03 GMT
The following data comes from the 2021 Census. Note the numbers are population, not registered electorate, however I think they'll be illustrative.
51% of the seat is composed of the following settlement units:
Selby and Brayton- 22.1%
Sherburn in Elmet and South Milford- 10.4%
Tadcaster and Oxton- 6.0%
Barleby and Osgodby- 4.4%
Cawood and Wistlow- 2.6%
Riccall- 2.3%
To get to 61% you need to include the following settlements:
Eggborough and High Eggborough- 2.3%
Hambleton- 2.1%
Bortherton, Byram, and Sutton- 2.1%
Church Fenton and Little Fenton- 1.9%
Carlton- 1.9%
To get over 71% you need to include the following settlements:
Hemingbrough- 1.8%
Tockwith- 1.7%
Monk Fryston and Hillam- 1.6%
Camblesforth- 1.5%
North Duffield 1.2%
Spofforth- 1.1%
Whitley- 1.1%
The remaining 29% is spread out over 69 settlement units, each representing 1% of the population of the Constituency or less. Settlements that you may have heard of include Nun Monkton, Huby, Barkston Ash, Escrick, Appleton Roebuck, Towton, Ulleskelf, Kirk Smeaton and Drax.
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 10, 2023 7:18:25 GMT
Spoke to a Labour Councillor mate of mine on Friday who had been canversing in Tadcaster . He was amazed how little support their was for the Conservatives , 10% at best amongst those he spoke to.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,181
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Post by r34t on Jul 10, 2023 7:23:21 GMT
Spoke to a Labour Councillor mate of mine on Friday who had been canversing in Tadcaster . He was amazed how little support their was for the Conservatives , 10% at best amongst those he spoke to. Yes, my experience in talking as well. With the emphasis on amazed. But it is Yorkshire & taking the piss never goes down well. |
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Post by adlai52 on Jul 10, 2023 7:43:48 GMT
Spoke to a Labour Councillor mate of mine on Friday who had been canversing in Tadcaster . He was amazed how little support their was for the Conservatives , 10% at best amongst those he spoke to. Yes, my experience in talking as well. With the emphasis on amazed. But it is Yorkshire & taking the piss never goes down well. And yet... it is always harder to find Opposition support when canvassing than your own. That might be even more the case in the current climate. That said, failing to pick up much Conservative support probably doesn't bode well for Conservative turnout and in a by-election that could be all you need for the seat to flip. What would be interesting is how much Labour support canvassers are picking up and if there is any sense re enthusiasm to vote/switching to Labour from other parties. |
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Post by phil156 on Jul 17, 2023 10:42:14 GMT
Confirmed the count is Thursday evening
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 17, 2023 20:47:20 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jul 18, 2023 21:08:54 GMT
Labour candidate Keir Mather has tweeted what purports to be an opinion poll or survey (sample size unspecified, methodology unspecified)
which has Labour 39.0% Conservative 38.9%.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 18, 2023 21:21:27 GMT
Labour candidate Keir Mather has tweeted what purports to be an opinion poll or survey (sample size unspecified, methodology unspecified) which has Labour 39.0% Conservative 38.9%. It's from the New Statesman's Britain Predicts model: see the bottom left corner of the graphic. I think this is the same source as the one they've been using to claim that there are 100 votes in it. |
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