johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 5, 2023 15:26:33 GMT
Haltemprice & Howden is renowned for being a densely populated gritty inner city constituency. I know explanations and reasons have been offered here but I'm still baffled by the size of the ballot in H&H. The size of the ballot paper in the Haltemprice & Howden by-election was mainly due to the number of candidates. |
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2023 15:33:05 GMT
as Graham Chapman said commenting on the result in Leicester, "the result is due to the number of votes cast".
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 5, 2023 16:34:11 GMT
I know explanations and reasons have been offered here but I'm still baffled by the size of the ballot in H&H. The size of the ballot paper in the Haltemprice & Howden by-election was mainly due to the number of candidates. A fair point, well made. |
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Post by kvasir on Jul 5, 2023 18:08:35 GMT
Not wanting to be unnecessarily confrontational, but I believe I'm the only person on this board that lives in East Yorkshire. Willerby and Anlaby, I'd agree with but the other places in the constituency are very distinct from Hull. That said, I think it's great that some East Riding NIMBYS have been lumped into the new Hull constituencies, they'll be raging. Also, back on topic. Claire Holmes is an East Riding councillor, but certainly has no local profile. I'd never heard of her before she was selected for this seat. So I think a reasonable definition of the Hull suburbs in this context is anything East of the A164, and North Ferriby should be very fortunate I'm feeling generous. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 22:35:48 GMT
Not wanting to be unnecessarily confrontational, but I believe I'm the only person on this board that lives in East Yorkshire. Willerby and Anlaby, I'd agree with but the other places in the constituency are very distinct from Hull. That said, I think it's great that some East Riding NIMBYS have been lumped into the new Hull constituencies, they'll be raging. Also, back on topic. Claire Holmes is an East Riding councillor, but certainly has no local profile. I'd never heard of her before she was selected for this seat. So I think a reasonable definition of the Hull suburbs in this context is anything East of the A164, and North Ferriby should be very fortunate I'm feeling generous. My mum's from North Ferriby. You are wrong. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2023 22:37:21 GMT
Though confusingly enough she's strictly red-and-white, meaning I am too. As a dual code fan I have sporting reasons to feel miserable all year round!
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 6, 2023 16:32:47 GMT
Not wanting to be unnecessarily confrontational, but I believe I'm the only person on this board that lives in East Yorkshire. Willerby and Anlaby, I'd agree with but the other places in the constituency are very distinct from Hull. That said, I think it's great that some East Riding NIMBYS have been lumped into the new Hull constituencies, they'll be raging. Also, back on topic. Claire Holmes is an East Riding councillor, but certainly has no local profile. I'd never heard of her before she was selected for this seat. So I think a reasonable definition of the Hull suburbs in this context is anything East of the A164, and North Ferriby should be very fortunate I'm feeling generous. The thing I wonder is, does Barton-upon-Humber count as a suburb of Hull? It's closer than North Ferriby after all. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 6, 2023 18:48:01 GMT
I suppose that given that Keir Mather is from Brough (not quite a Hull suburb, I think) the discussion above isn't completely off topic.
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Post by kvasir on Jul 6, 2023 19:01:22 GMT
So I think a reasonable definition of the Hull suburbs in this context is anything East of the A164, and North Ferriby should be very fortunate I'm feeling generous. The thing I wonder is, does Barton-upon-Humber count as a suburb of Hull? It's closer than North Ferriby after all. It's in Lincolnshire so as far as anyone in Yorkshire is concerned it may as well be in the arse end of nowhere. |
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Post by threecrowns on Jul 6, 2023 20:09:17 GMT
So I think a reasonable definition of the Hull suburbs in this context is anything East of the A164, and North Ferriby should be very fortunate I'm feeling generous. The thing I wonder is, does Barton-upon-Humber count as a suburb of Hull? It's closer than North Ferriby after all. No it bloody well is not! |
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Post by devolutionist on Jul 6, 2023 20:48:48 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 6, 2023 21:05:25 GMT
Yorkshire Post tomorrow has a constituency poll from JL & Partners commissioned by 38 Degrees:
Labour 41
Conservative 29
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 6, 2023 21:49:20 GMT
Yorkshire Post tomorrow has a constituency poll from JL & Partners commissioned by 38 Degrees: Labour 41 Conservative 29 It'd be nice to have more detail (what did they do with undecideds, for a start?) and by-election polls' track record is mixed, but if that is close to accurate it'd be a one of Labour's best by-election results ever. |
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Post by kvasir on Jul 6, 2023 21:49:27 GMT
Yorkshire Post tomorrow has a constituency poll from JL & Partners commissioned by 38 Degrees: Labour 41 Conservative 29 Inexperienced pollster, large number of don't knows, let's be careful to not oversell it. |
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2023 22:45:35 GMT
I think a Labour win is distinctly more likely than not, but I too would urge extreme caution re constituency polls. Their track record is very poor. Logically they oughtn't necessarily to be, as the proportion of the electorate sampled is much higher than that of the UK population in national polls, but there it is.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Jul 6, 2023 22:56:58 GMT
I think a Labour win is distinctly more likely than not, but I too would urge extreme caution re constituency polls. Their track record is very poor. Logically they oughtn't necessarily to be, as the proportion of the electorate sampled is much higher than that of the UK population in national polls, but there it is. I remember one by-election constituency poll (I think it was Kensington, 1988) where the opinion poll said 40-40. The presenters of the by-election results programme immediately assumed it meant 42-38. The result was 42-38. Their default assumption was to assume that the opinion poll was inaccurate. P.S. it might have been an exit poll |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jul 7, 2023 6:51:55 GMT
Yorkshire Post tomorrow has a constituency poll from JL & Partners commissioned by 38 Degrees: Labour 41 Conservative 29 Never knowingly underpolled. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 7, 2023 7:42:34 GMT
Full figures from the JL Partners poll
Mather (Lab) 41%
Holmes (Con) 29%
Kent (Reform UK) 8%
Walker (Lib Dem) 6%
Warneken (Green) 6%
Jordan (Yorkshire Party) 4%
Wilson-Kerr (Ind) 2%
Gray (Ind), Phoenix (Heritage), Stanton (OMRLP), Waterston (SDP) each 1%
Palmer (Ind), Wellock (Climate) each 0%
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 7, 2023 7:57:09 GMT
They have a breakdown by postcode district.
YO8 (Selby itself and much of the surrounding area) Lab 46 Con 24
LS25 (including Sherburn in Elmet) Con 36 Lab 35
LS24 (Tadcaster, Church Fenton) Con 57 Lab 26
DN14 (Eggborough) Con 40 Lab 39
YO26 (Green Hammerton, Great Ouseburn) Lab 28 Con 22 (Green 36)
LS22 (Kirk Deighton) Con 79 Lab 21
Some of these are very small samples of course.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jul 7, 2023 8:15:35 GMT
Talking to Labour Cllrs at the LGA (so by definition hardened sceptics) who have door knocked, "Surely this is too good to be true ??"
Another story (from a very well known national figure) is about visiting a PV'er in a village -
Q - how are you going to vote ?
A - I've already voted Labour by PV
Q - how have you voted in the past ?
A - Conservative, & I've leafletted for them as well
Q - How long ago since you leafleted for them ?
A - Yesterday.
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