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Post by greenhert on Jul 1, 2023 9:07:34 GMT
Some potential ‘shock’ losses IMO: Hitchin & Harpenden, SE Cambs, SW Herts, Woking, Chelsea & Fulham etc. Hitchin & Harpenden and South East Cambridgeshire have been abolished courtesy of the BCE's final recommendations. Ely & East Cambridgeshire will be a more difficult Liberal Democrat gain than Harpenden & Berkhamsted however. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 1, 2023 9:13:15 GMT
It appears the bookies now make Labour favourites to take this seat.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 1, 2023 9:23:20 GMT
It appears the bookies now make Labour favourites to take this seat. I would be cautious in reading very much into what they say after Chesham & Amersham, but Labour being slight favourites doesn't seem unreasonable. |
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Post by president1 on Jul 1, 2023 10:18:20 GMT
That would be close to what the Tories polled in 2010 and 2015. Which is why I think it will be somewhat less than that, as there are plenty of Tory-inclined voters who will have an excuse not to vote. One of the big successes of recent Conservative campaigns has been giving this group of low enthusiasm Tory-inclined voters something to vote for/against. It's a trick that will be tough to pull off next year to the same extent - combine that with the overall erosion in Tory support and they a still in for a drubbing on current trends. They appear to be trying that tactic in Uxbridge, where all their literature and online jibes are concentrating on the one issue of ULEZ being extended to the area. They are openly calling for people to make it a referendum on the issue. What are the main issues they are targeting in Selby then?
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 1, 2023 10:23:35 GMT
It appears the bookies now make Labour favourites to take this seat. I would be cautious in reading very much into what they say after Chesham & Amersham, but Labour being slight favourites doesn't seem unreasonable. Brexit Party were trading at 1.01 on Betfair after the poll closed in the Peterborough by election. Wish I'd laid at 1.02, £1 risk could have netted me £50. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,730
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 1, 2023 11:26:28 GMT
Which is why I think it will be somewhat less than that, as there are plenty of Tory-inclined voters who will have an excuse not to vote. One of the big successes of recent Conservative campaigns has been giving this group of low enthusiasm Tory-inclined voters something to vote for/against. It's a trick that will be tough to pull off next year to the same extent - combine that with the overall erosion in Tory support and they a still in for a drubbing on current trends. They appear to be trying that tactic in Uxbridge, where all their literature and online jibes are concentrating on the one issue of ULEZ being extended to the area. They are openly calling for people to make it a referendum on the issue. What are the main issues they are targeting in Selby then?
A smart move, I guess, but I suspect most people in the area will be more concerned by the cost of living, and the unaffordable cost of housing, worsened by high mortgage interest rates. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 1, 2023 12:51:11 GMT
It appears the bookies now make Labour favourites to take this seat. No the 'money' does and that might just be over-excited LDs,lefties and their sundry hangers-on taking a punt? |
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Post by bigfatron on Jul 1, 2023 13:27:44 GMT
It appears the bookies now make Labour favourites to take this seat. No the 'money' does and that might just be over-excited LDs and their hangers-on? Why on earth would Lib Dems get excited about a potential Labour gain in Selby? You seem very confused... |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 2, 2023 12:53:51 GMT
At last: www.northyorks.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20Selby.pdfAndrew Philip Gray (no description) Claire Holmes (Con) Mike Jordan (Yorkshire Party/no description) [1] Dave Kent (Reform UK) Keir Alexander Mather (Lab) Nick Palmer (Independent) Guy Phoenix (Heritage) Sir Archibald Stanton (OMRLP) Matt Walker (Lib Dem) Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken (Green) John William Waterston (SDP) Luke John Wellock (Climate Party) "Yorkshire Tyke" Cllr Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr (Independent) [2] [1] not Yorkshire Party as previously announced, a mistake somewhere? see later discussion [2] sic Thirteen candidates, the same as South East Staffordshire 1996; Glasgow North East 2009; and Rochester and Strood 2014. |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 2, 2023 14:33:47 GMT
At last: www.northyorks.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2023-06/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20Selby.pdfAndrew Philip Gray (no description) Claire Holmes (Con) Mike Jordan (Yorkshire Party/no description) [1] Dave Kent (Reform UK) Keir Alexander Mather (Lab) Nick Palmer (Independent) Guy Phoenix (Heritage) Sir Archibald Stanton (OMRLP) Matt Walker (Lib Dem) Arnold Francis Ignatius Warneken (Green) John William Waterston (SDP) Luke John Wellock (Climate Party) "Yorkshire Tyke" Cllr Tyler Callum Wilson-Kerr (Independent) [2] [1] not Yorkshire Party as previously announced, a mistake somewhere? see later discussion [2] sic Thirteen candidates, the same as South East Staffordshire 1996; Glasgow North East 2009; and Rochester and Strood 2014. All 3 of those seats were primarily urban though (SE Staffordshire was just Tamworth with some villages close to the city of Lichfield added); Selby & Ainsty is rural (the town of Selby only has 19,760 people as of the 2021 census) so the high candidate total is unusual for a constituency of its type. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jul 2, 2023 16:23:14 GMT
Thirteen candidates, the same as South East Staffordshire 1996; Glasgow North East 2009; and Rochester and Strood 2014. All 3 of those seats were primarily urban though (SE Staffordshire was just Tamworth with some villages close to the city of Lichfield added); Selby & Ainsty is rural (the town of Selby only has 19,760 people as of the 2021 census) so the high candidate total is unusual for a constituency of its type. Haltemprice & Howden is renowned for being a densely populated gritty inner city constituency. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 2, 2023 16:29:22 GMT
All 3 of those seats were primarily urban though (SE Staffordshire was just Tamworth with some villages close to the city of Lichfield added); Selby & Ainsty is rural (the town of Selby only has 19,760 people as of the 2021 census) so the high candidate total is unusual for a constituency of its type. Haltemprice & Howden is renowned for being a densely populated gritty inner city constituency. To be fair the majority of the electorate live in Hull suburbs. |
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Post by threecrowns on Jul 2, 2023 16:35:11 GMT
Haltemprice & Howden is renowned for being a densely populated gritty inner city constituency. To be fair the majority of the electorate live in Hull suburbs. They really don't, as amusing as it would be to enrage them by suggesting so. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 2, 2023 16:41:02 GMT
All 3 of those seats were primarily urban though (SE Staffordshire was just Tamworth with some villages close to the city of Lichfield added); Selby & Ainsty is rural (the town of Selby only has 19,760 people as of the 2021 census) so the high candidate total is unusual for a constituency of its type. Haltemprice & Howden is renowned for being a densely populated gritty inner city constituency. I know explanations and reasons have been offered here but I'm still baffled by the size of the ballot in H&H. |
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Post by mattb on Jul 2, 2023 17:52:26 GMT
To be fair the majority of the electorate live in Hull suburbs. They really don't, as amusing as it would be to enrage them by suggesting so. Actually (assuming we're talking the existing seat) arguably a majority do. |
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Post by threecrowns on Jul 2, 2023 18:24:17 GMT
Not wanting to be unnecessarily confrontational, but I believe I'm the only person on this board that lives in East Yorkshire. Willerby and Anlaby, I'd agree with but the other places in the constituency are very distinct from Hull. That said, I think it's great that some East Riding NIMBYS have been lumped into the new Hull constituencies, they'll be raging.
Also, back on topic. Claire Holmes is an East Riding councillor, but certainly has no local profile. I'd never heard of her before she was selected for this seat.
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,043
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Post by nyx on Jul 2, 2023 18:39:39 GMT
I would be cautious in reading very much into what they say after Chesham & Amersham, but Labour being slight favourites doesn't seem unreasonable. Brexit Party were trading at 1.01 on Betfair after the poll closed in the Peterborough by election. Wish I'd laid at 1.02, £1 risk could have netted me £50. I was fortunate enough to put £1000 on the Lib Dems in Chesham+Amersham when they still had 15:1 odds. |
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skyep
Non-Aligned
Posts: 62
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Post by skyep on Jul 4, 2023 21:34:49 GMT
Seems like the Tories are ... past their Selby date. "ainsty funny!" ... but also apologies for a delayed response! |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,624 
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Post by ricmk on Jul 5, 2023 14:08:38 GMT
I've added a poll to the thread, didn't know it was the privilege of the opening poster until I saw it on the Uxbridge thread.
I've kept it very simple as I see no momentum from the thread or campaign that any parties other than Con/Lab are in contention, but I'm sure anyone voting 'Other' can explain it in thread.
Deadline 10pm the day before polling day - results shown then.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jul 5, 2023 14:43:31 GMT
On balance I'm going with a Labour win, but I don't think it will be by a huge margin. Finger in the wind, say a majority of 3,000 over the Tories with LDs scoring a fairly strong third.
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