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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 15:49:08 GMT
............Which only goes to demonstrate that, really, if Labour are even anywhere near, it is a really good result. It really is not a naturally Labourish seat at all and even in 1945 & 1997 the Tories had a very comfortable lead. Tamworth, historically, is very different.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 17, 2023 15:59:40 GMT
There have been important shifts in the social composition and economic structure of the Tamworth constituency over the past few decades, and none have been to Labour's advantage (to say the least). Brian Jenkins does also appear to have been one of those New Labour era MPs who was genuinely very well liked despite no national profile.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 17, 2023 17:27:33 GMT
Just looking in the drops in Tory shares in the 8 by elections that they have defended in this parliament ( excluding Southend West) Chesham and Amersham 19.9 North Shropshire 31.1 Old Bexley and Sidcup 13 Wakefield 17 Tiverton and Honiton 21.7 Selby and Ainsty 26 Somerton and Frome 29.6 Uxbridge and S Ruislip 7.4 The average drop there is 20.7%. If you take out the 2 London holds its 24.2% In Mid Beds they are starting on 59.8%. So the average drop would get them 39.1% or the average excluding the 2 London holds would get them 35.6%. I imagine they would hold with those 2 percentages. If they dropped by the same percentage as Selby, they would get 33.8%- they’d probably hold with that. In Tamworth, they are starting on 66.3%, so the average drop would get them 44.6%,, the average drop excluding the London results would get them 42.1%. The same drop as Selby would get them 40.3%. I imagine they would narrowly lose with that. So if the Tory drop is the same as the average of other by elections, they would probably narrowly hold Mid Beds and narrowly lose Tamworth The outcome where they get a higher share in losing Tamworth than they do in holding Mid Beds is quite feasible i would have thought. All of that is very logical and reasonable, but the thistle in the ointment is that I think the swing will be even bigger than those others - partly because the government is even more unpopular than it was then, and partly because the campaign in the by-election has been going on much longer than usual. I think that my prediction in the prediction competition has a bigger Labour win than anybody else, so I’m hoping I’m wrong. |
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 18, 2023 6:18:19 GMT
In the same report about Tamworth, the estimated Conservative vote in Mid Bedfordshire is 29%, however with there being a large disagreement about who the opposition is and a strong local Independent, and taking examples such as Belfast South in 2005, I believe this is also likely to be a Conservative HOLD
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2023 6:42:07 GMT
Old Bexley & Sidcup was low-key. Now, Labour would fight a by-election there harder (along with Reform) and likely knock a few more points off the Tory vote. I wonder if Labour will support changing the electoral system if they narrowly lose both (they don't need to win those seats in 2024, but still).
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Post by batman on Oct 18, 2023 7:47:19 GMT
No they won't. At least, not the party leadership. And I have to say I will be pretty surprised if the Tories hold both seats.
Labour Party members have received e-mails today urging last-minute help in this constituency & saying that it's neck & neck with the Tories. I've not been in a position to go, unfortunately, unlike U&SR.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 18, 2023 12:00:16 GMT
No they won't. At least, not the party leadership. And I have to say I will be pretty surprised if the Tories hold both seats. Labour Party members have received e-mails today urging last-minute help in this constituency & saying that it's neck & neck with the Tories. I've not been in a position to go, unfortunately, unlike U&SR. That seems to have been the line for a few emails now, its not too hard to decode. (and also, that isn't *quite* the language being used about Mid Beds which may itself be significant) |
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Post by willpower3 on Oct 18, 2023 14:12:05 GMT
There is a real prospect of an almighty meltdown from the Twitter left if the Tories win and their majority is smaller than the total votes of the third-placed party.
Which tempts one to consider the following - let's say there were to be a by-election in Liverpool (any of the parliamentary seats will do as an example) and the Tories came within a few percent of winning the seat, with the Reform Party vote being bigger than the Labour majority. Would (or should) the Tories take to social media in such a situation and whinge and complain, or should they take it as an excellent result and a sign that the Labour Party is in trouble in its strongholds and nationally etc?
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Oct 18, 2023 14:15:13 GMT
There is a real prospect of an almighty meltdown from the Twitter left if the Tories win and their majority is smaller than the total votes of the third-placed party. Which tempts one to consider the following - let's say there were to be a by-election in Liverpool (any of the parliamentary seats will do as an example) and the Tories came within a few percent of winning the seat, with the Reform Party vote being bigger than the Labour majority. Would (or should) the Tories take to social media in such a situation and whinge and complain, or should they take it as an excellent result and a sign that the Labour Party is in trouble in its strongholds and nationally etc? Least it’ll be nothing compared to the meltdown third party candidates in the US can cause |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 18, 2023 14:24:35 GMT
Absolutely fascinated by the nimber of Lib Dem tweets suggesting Labour has scaled down its operation here, and offeres as proof expectation management. Absolute nonsense - of course there will be a reminder that it is "neck and neck", to discourage complacency among Labour supporters.
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Roger Harmer
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Post by Roger Harmer on Oct 18, 2023 14:33:27 GMT
There is a real prospect of an almighty meltdown from the Twitter left if the Tories win and their majority is smaller than the total votes of the third-placed party. Which tempts one to consider the following - let's say there were to be a by-election in Liverpool (any of the parliamentary seats will do as an example) and the Tories came within a few percent of winning the seat, with the Reform Party vote being bigger than the Labour majority. Would (or should) the Tories take to social media in such a situation and whinge and complain, or should they take it as an excellent result and a sign that the Labour Party is in trouble in its strongholds and nationally etc? There is an absolute certainty of an almighty (and no doubt overblown) meltdown on Twitter from one side or another based on what happens tomorrow! That's the nature of Twitter/X. The only issue is who will have the meltdown as no one knows for sure what will happen. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 18, 2023 14:53:00 GMT
There is a real prospect of an almighty meltdown from the Twitter left if the Tories win and their majority is smaller than the total votes of the third-placed party. Which tempts one to consider the following - let's say there were to be a by-election in Liverpool (any of the parliamentary seats will do as an example) and the Tories came within a few percent of winning the seat, with the Reform Party vote being bigger than the Labour majority. Would (or should) the Tories take to social media in such a situation and whinge and complain, or should they take it as an excellent result and a sign that the Labour Party is in trouble in its strongholds and nationally etc? But there are many LD voters who would not vote Labour. In a straight fight between Tory and Labour quite a few would vote Tory. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 18, 2023 16:13:18 GMT
I have seen some suggestions that Labour was sluggish in getting off the ground re campaigning in Mid Beds - some time after the LDs were already active there.My own impression from afar is that Labour has been campaigning hard since late June - long before Dorries finally resigned. There appears to be some resentment in LD circles that Labour effectively pushed them aside. Personally I do not buy that - a poll carried out at that time did put Labour ahead
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2023 16:23:24 GMT
The LibDems were free to start campaigning at the same time if they wanted to
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 18, 2023 16:53:11 GMT
The LibDems were free to start campaigning at the same time if they wanted to The Lib Dems were campaigning from the off (start of June), not when Dories actually left. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 18, 2023 18:01:05 GMT
The LibDems were free to start campaigning at the same time if they wanted to The Lib Dems were campaigning from the off (start of June), not when Dories actually left. I don't doubt that, but it is probably fair to say that they didn't expect Alistair Strathern to be quite as impressive a candidate as he has turned out to be. I have been around a long time and am not easily impressed, and I think he is one of the best Labour byelection candidates since Nick Raynsford in Fulham in 1986. |
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Post by carolus on Oct 18, 2023 18:34:38 GMT
Impressive if he wins, perhaps?
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Oct 18, 2023 18:38:13 GMT
There is a real prospect of an almighty meltdown from the Twitter left if the Tories win and their majority is smaller than the total votes of the third-placed party. Which tempts one to consider the following - let's say there were to be a by-election in Liverpool (any of the parliamentary seats will do as an example) and the Tories came within a few percent of winning the seat, with the Reform Party vote being bigger than the Labour majority. Would (or should) the Tories take to social media in such a situation and whinge and complain, or should they take it as an excellent result and a sign that the Labour Party is in trouble in its strongholds and nationally etc? A fair few I remember in 2019 grumbled over Farage not standing down everywhere, because without the then-Brexit party, they feel they could have unseated Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, etc, whose majorities are smaller than the Brexit Party vote. This of course is based on the simplistic assumption that ALL Brexit Party votes in 2019 would otherwise have gone to the Get Brexit Done party, whereas a lot if not most of them were clearly ‘would never vote Tory either’. Six / one half of a dozen really, because it could equally be argued that Brexit Party standing in Labour held seats helped more readily drain Labour votes away in places like Blyth, allowing the Tories to win. Many of the ‘Red wall’ losses really had a very modest Tory vote share increase, just that Labour plummeted across the board instead. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Oct 18, 2023 18:38:16 GMT
The LibDems were free to start campaigning at the same time if they wanted to The Lib Dems were campaigning from the off (start of June), not when Dories actually left. Labour was campaigning by the end of June - so not much in it. Moreover, until Dorries formally resigned in early September it had to be sotto voce - ie unofficial - or campaign expenses would have been incurred. |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Oct 18, 2023 18:40:36 GMT
Take this with a pinch or a bucket load of salt, and we shall see on Thursday, but Christopher Hope from the Telegraph says ‘interesting to hear senior Tory and Labour figures yesterday forecast a double Tory win on Thursday’.Imagine if this could be some kind of 4D chess from the ‘senior Tory’ (e.g. Patel?) - rather than expectation management, instead ramp up expectations, so that in the event of both being lost, use it to start a 1922 no confidence campaign… |
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