batman
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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 12:41:02 GMT
Take this with a pinch or a bucket load of salt, and we shall see on Thursday, but Christopher Hope from the Telegraph says ‘interesting to hear senior Tory and Labour figures yesterday forecast a double Tory win on Thursday’. John Healey told me that he thought Selby & Ainsty was probably a bridge too far for Labour. Well he was not correct or even nearly. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 17, 2023 12:44:56 GMT
Take this with a pinch or a bucket load of salt, and we shall see on Thursday, but Christopher Hope from the Telegraph says ‘interesting to hear senior Tory and Labour figures yesterday forecast a double Tory win on Thursday’. Given the size of the majorities, it wouldn't seem unlikely for the Tories to hold both, but it might be a mix of Tory hops and Labour expectation management - also an encouragement by the latter to get out every vote. I hope they lose both but for various reasons i wouldnt be surprised at all if they held both |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 17, 2023 12:48:51 GMT
Take this with a pinch or a bucket load of salt, and we shall see on Thursday, but Christopher Hope from the Telegraph says ‘interesting to hear senior Tory and Labour figures yesterday forecast a double Tory win on Thursday’. John Healey told me that he thought Selby & Ainsty was probably a bridge too far for Labour. Well he was not correct or even nearly. I can understand Labour playing down their expectations but I would have the thought the Tories would be briefing that Labour will win.. Thought they would both be going with the usual expectation management b#@!!>€s. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 17, 2023 12:50:12 GMT
Take this with a pinch or a bucket load of salt, and we shall see on Thursday, but Christopher Hope from the Telegraph says ‘interesting to hear senior Tory and Labour figures yesterday forecast a double Tory win on Thursday’. Given the size of the majorities, it wouldn't seem unlikely for the Tories to hold both, but it might be a mix of Tory hops and Labour expectation management - also an encouragement by the latter to get out every vote. It would be a setback for Labour were it not to win Tamworth given that the party held the seat 1997 - 2010. People could reasonably ask why Labour has failed to win a seat it did win 2005 when its national GB lead was just 3% |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 17, 2023 12:54:28 GMT
Just looking in the drops in Tory shares in the 8 by elections that they have defended in this parliament ( excluding Southend West) Chesham and Amersham 19.9 North Shropshire 31.1 Old Bexley and Sidcup 13 Wakefield 17 Tiverton and Honiton 21.7 Selby and Ainsty 26 Somerton and Frome 29.6 Uxbridge and S Ruislip 7.4 The average drop there is 20.7%. If you take out the 2 London holds its 24.2% In Mid Beds they are starting on 59.8%. So the average drop would get them 39.1% or the average excluding the 2 London holds would get them 35.6%. I imagine they would hold with those 2 percentages. If they dropped by the same percentage as Selby, they would get 33.8%- they’d probably hold with that. In Tamworth, they are starting on 66.3%, so the average drop would get them 44.6%,, the average drop excluding the London results would get them 42.1%. The same drop as Selby would get them 40.3%. I imagine they would narrowly lose with that. So if the Tory drop is the same as the average of other by elections, they would probably narrowly hold Mid Beds and narrowly lose Tamworth The outcome where they get a higher share in losing Tamworth than they do in holding Mid Beds is quite feasible i would have thought. I suspect the very high Tory vote shares in Tamworth in both 2017 and 2019 was rather an aberration. In 2010 they polled 50% there. |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 17, 2023 12:56:36 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 17, 2023 12:57:49 GMT
Take this with a pinch or a bucket load of salt, and we shall see on Thursday, but Christopher Hope from the Telegraph says ‘interesting to hear senior Tory and Labour figures yesterday forecast a double Tory win on Thursday’. John Healey told me that he thought Selby & Ainsty was probably a bridge too far for Labour. Well he was not correct or even nearly. Please note other war films are available. |
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Post by threecrowns on Oct 17, 2023 13:07:02 GMT
If anyone doesn't believe that this was intentionally leaked then I've got some magic beans I'd like to sell to them. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 17, 2023 13:09:02 GMT
If anyone doesn't believe that this was intentionally leaked then I've got some magic beans I'd like to sell to them. He's obviously not one of of the 'senior Tories' who the Telegraph found who thought they were going to hold both seats. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 17, 2023 13:11:09 GMT
John Healey told me that he thought Selby & Ainsty was probably a bridge too far for Labour. Well he was not correct or even nearly. Please note other war films are available. Ah, Go tell it to the marines.  |
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 17, 2023 13:23:24 GMT
For those wondering if the Tories can hold one or both, I think I promised to run a poll in the Conservative room on the topic of "Is the current Tory government fit for office"
The result was
62% not fit for government
38% fit for government.
This is in the Conservative Room.
Now bear in mind that this does not imply that they regard any other party as fit, or more fit, for government. But if you want a flavour of just how firm the Tory vote might be, that may act as a sorbet.
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Post by bigfatron on Oct 17, 2023 13:26:32 GMT
A potential conclusion is that the Tories drop further when the alternative is the Lib Dems (25.5% average) as opposed to Labour (16% average)
This makes sense when you factor in the modest but very real 'anti-Labour' portion of the Tory vote that will reliably turn out and vote if the alternative appears to be Labour, but may happily sit the vote out (or vote Reform or Lib Dem to send a message) if Labour are out of the running.
If Labour have successfully convinced Tory voters that Mid Beds is a two-horse Tory/Labour choice, that may have the unwanted side-effect of strengthening the Tory vote to around 40%, whereas the Lib Dems as clear challenger might have brought it down to low 30's, with a consequently higher chance of taking the seat.
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Post by adlai52 on Oct 17, 2023 13:33:09 GMT
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Oct 17, 2023 13:34:31 GMT
For those wondering if the Tories can hold one or both, I think I promised to run a poll in the Conservative room on the topic of "Is the current Tory government fit for office" The result was 62% not fit for government 38% fit for government. This is in the Conservative Room. Now bear in mind that this does not imply that they regard any other party as fit, or more fit, for government. But if you want a flavour of just how firm the Tory vote might be, that may act as a sorbet. Other frozen desserts are available |
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Post by andrewp on Oct 17, 2023 13:35:26 GMT
A potential conclusion is that the Tories drop further when the alternative is the Lib Dems (25.5% average) as opposed to Labour (16% average) This makes sense when you factor in the modest but very real 'anti-Labour' portion of the Tory vote that will reliably turn out and vote if the alternative appears to be Labour, but may happily sit the vote out (or vote Reform or Lib Dem to send a message) if Labour are out of the running. If Labour have successfully convinced Tory voters that Mid Beds is a two-horse Tory/Labour choice, that may have the unwanted side-effect of strengthening the Tory vote to around 40%, whereas the Lib Dems as clear challenger might have brought it down to low 30's, with a consequently higher chance of taking the seat. I think that’s Defitnely a factor and it can been seen regularly in local by elections where the Lib Dem’s and Greens can achieve huge swings to gain Tory wards, where as Labour don’t do it nearly so often. For a Tory voter, a vote for the Lib Dem’s or Reform is often going so far as ‘ I want to protest against the Tories but I’m not going so far as endorsing the alternative’. A vote for Labour is another step or 3 down the dissatisfaction road. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 13:35:50 GMT
If anyone doesn't believe that this was intentionally leaked then I've got some magic beans I'd like to sell to them. the fact is, though, he did write that. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 17, 2023 13:37:44 GMT
A potential conclusion is that the Tories drop further when the alternative is the Lib Dems (25.5% average) as opposed to Labour (16% average) This makes sense when you factor in the modest but very real 'anti-Labour' portion of the Tory vote that will reliably turn out and vote if the alternative appears to be Labour, but may happily sit the vote out (or vote Reform or Lib Dem to send a message) if Labour are out of the running. If Labour have successfully convinced Tory voters that Mid Beds is a two-horse Tory/Labour choice, that may have the unwanted side-effect of strengthening the Tory vote to around 40%, whereas the Lib Dems as clear challenger might have brought it down to low 30's, with a consequently higher chance of taking the seat. I don't think the Tories will get 40% in Mid Beds, though they may well hold it. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 17, 2023 13:42:22 GMT
Given the size of the majorities, it wouldn't seem unlikely for the Tories to hold both, but it might be a mix of Tory hops and Labour expectation management - also an encouragement by the latter to get out every vote. It would be a setback for Labour were it not to win Tamworth given that the party held the seat 1997 - 2010. People could reasonably ask why Labour has failed to win a seat it did win 2005 when its national GB lead was just 3% They could do but in 18 years the political picture can change in constituencies. With trends, demographics and so on some seats that Labour didn’t ever hold during the 1997-2010 period are probably better targets than some that that they did hold at some point in this period. The same in reverse for the Tories I don’t know enough about Tamworth personally to say for certain if it might be such a seat that’s trended that way or the large majority built up is just a bit of a freak, but it’s not necessarily as simple as looking at when Labour were last in government |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 17, 2023 14:43:12 GMT
It would be a setback for Labour were it not to win Tamworth given that the party held the seat 1997 - 2010. People could reasonably ask why Labour has failed to win a seat it did win 2005 when its national GB lead was just 3% They could do but in 18 years the political picture can change in constituencies. With trends, demographics and so on some seats that Labour didn’t ever hold during the 1997-2010 period are probably better targets than some that that they did hold at some point in this period. The same in reverse for the Tories I don’t know enough about Tamworth personally to say for certain if it might be such a seat that’s trended that way or the large majority built up is just a bit of a freak, but it’s not necessarily as simple as looking at when Labour were last in government The seat is likely to be fairly typical of many in the Midlands and on the East Coast which saw huge swings to the Tories related to - Brexit - Corbyn - Johnson - none of which now have much relevance. The result will be a good indicator of the extent to which those swings have now unwound. |
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 17, 2023 15:15:01 GMT
I've just been drawing some maps for Thursday's piece and this Twitter reaction made me laugh: |
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