Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2023 8:42:48 GMT
Left it behind, no? Not a great ad for the area, to be honest. Don't be ridiculous. As with most rural/small-town areas, this is a constituency where large numbers of people who grew up there will leave for work, and it's also one that has seen rapid population growth, so relatively few residents will have lived in the area all their lives. But I don’t think this chap lives or works here? It’s a shame.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 7, 2023 8:49:56 GMT
Why did Labour pick a guy on Waltham Forest council here? Do they want to win this seat? That’s a stupid move, IMO. Surely there are Beds born and bred people they could run. Labour has three of six MPs in this county, for fuck’s sake. Here’s the last by-election in the seat (the Liberals did OK): Mid Bedfordshire by-election, 1960 Party Candidate Votes % ±% Conservative Stephen Hastings 17,503 45.38 -1.41 Labour Bryan Magee 11,281 29.25 -6.17 Liberal Wilfred G. Matthews 9,550 24.76 +6.97 New Conservative C. F. H. Gilliard 235 0.61 New Majority 6,222 16.13 +4.77 Turnout 38,569 71.10 Conservative hold Swing funny you should say that, since of course Magee became a Labour MP in the London Borough of Waltham Forest in 1974. A Labour Party with many more of his quality and personality would be difficult to oppose or inseat.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2023 8:51:39 GMT
Small world. This Labour guy might also get a London seat.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 7, 2023 10:19:55 GMT
Don't be ridiculous. As with most rural/small-town areas, this is a constituency where large numbers of people who grew up there will leave for work, and it's also one that has seen rapid population growth, so relatively few residents will have lived in the area all their lives. But I don’t think this chap lives or works here? It’s a shame. He is not standing for the local council, he is standing for parliament. He is from Mid-Bedfordshire, his family still live there, he, like most people these days, moved away for work. Do we want good quality candidates or just somebody who ticks a localist box? I would rather a good MP than some man or woman who lives round the corner from me. If it happens that they are both, then that is fine. As it is, Alex Strathern is as close to the best candidate in terms of ability and local knowledge.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 7, 2023 10:29:16 GMT
It's unlikely that localness is going to be a big issue in the by-election. The Lib Dem candidate isn't from the constituency, I'm not sure what address the Conservative gives but if he lives locally he's only done so for a few years, so that only leaves the possible independent and if he was intending to run a serious campaign I think there would have been more sign than we've yet seen.
Plus the nature of the constituency means it's divided between areas that look to Luton, areas that look to Bedford, areas that look to Milton Keynes and areas that look along the A1, so local in one part of the seat is not local in the other. And indeed I don't think you can say that any previous occupant of the seat could really be described as a local.
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Post by batman on Sept 7, 2023 10:38:26 GMT
But I don’t think this chap lives or works here? It’s a shame. He is not standing for the local council, he is standing for parliament. He is from Mid-Bedfordshire, his family still live there, he, like most people these days, moved away for work. Do we want good quality candidates or just somebody who ticks a localist box? I would rather a good MP than some man or woman who lives round the corner from me. If it happens that they are both, then that is fine. As it is, Alex Strathern is a close to the best candidate in terms of ability and local knowledge. regardless of what the result eventually turns out to be, he does seem to have fought a very good campaign so far.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2023 10:39:21 GMT
But I don’t think this chap lives or works here? It’s a shame. He is not standing for the local council, he is standing for parliament. He is from Mid-Bedfordshire, his family still live there, he, like most people these days, moved away for work. Do we want good quality candidates or just somebody who ticks a localist box? I would rather a good MP than some man or woman who lives round the corner from me. If it happens that they are both, then that is fine. As it is, Alex Strathern is a close to the best candidate in terms of ability and local knowledge. Fair enough. It's a bit of a contrast with Bedford's MP who's lived there for yonks.
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Post by batman on Sept 7, 2023 10:43:18 GMT
It's unlikely that localness is going to be a big issue in the by-election. The Lib Dem candidate isn't from the constituency, I'm not sure what address the Conservative gives but if he lives locally he's only done so for a few years, so that only leaves the possible independent and if he was intending to run a serious campaign I think there would have been more sign than we've yet seen. Plus the nature of the constituency means it's divided between areas that look to Luton, areas that look to Bedford, areas that look to Milton Keynes and areas that look along the A1, so local in one part of the seat is not local in the other. And indeed I don't think you can say that any previous occupant of the seat could really be described as a local. looking at their Wiki entries, it appears that no MP for Mid Beds since 1931 (when Alan Lennox-Boyd was first elected) has had any connection with the constituency before being elected to it. Other MPs since then, all Conservative (except when Jonathan Sayeed was expelled towards the end of his time in the seat), were Stephen Hastings, Nick Lyell, Jonathan Sayeed & Dorries.
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Post by bjornhattan on Sept 7, 2023 10:45:23 GMT
He is not standing for the local council, he is standing for parliament. He is from Mid-Bedfordshire, his family still live there, he, like most people these days, moved away for work. Do we want good quality candidates or just somebody who ticks a localist box? I would rather a good MP than some man or woman who lives round the corner from me. If it happens that they are both, then that is fine. As it is, Alex Strathern is a close to the best candidate in terms of ability and local knowledge. Fair enough. It's a bit of a contrast with Bedford's MP who's lived there for yonks. But that's to be expected; the two constituencies are a bit of a contrast. One particularly aposite figure from the census - 41.5% of households own their homes with a mortgage in this constituency. This is the 3rd highest figure in England and Wales (on the slightly adjusted new boundaries, it actually climbs to number 1). In some areas of the seat this figure exceeds 50%. While clearly there are owner occupiers with mortgages everywhere, such high figures tend to mean a rapidly growing population with a lot of new builds, and plenty of (mostly internal) migration. It's very much not a local place for local people!
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Post by batman on Sept 7, 2023 11:14:55 GMT
Fair enough. It's a bit of a contrast with Bedford's MP who's lived there for yonks. But that's to be expected; the two constituencies are a bit of a contrast. One particularly aposite figure from the census - 41.5% of households own their homes with a mortgage in this constituency. This is the 3rd highest figure in England and Wales (on the slightly adjusted new boundaries, it actually climbs to number 1). In some areas of the seat this figure exceeds 50%. While clearly there are owner occupiers with mortgages everywhere, such high figures tend to mean a rapidly growing population with a lot of new builds, and plenty of (mostly internal) migration. It's very much not a local place for local people! there's everything for you here.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 7, 2023 11:55:13 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 7, 2023 18:24:56 GMT
A few times now, I have asked @theprogalliance to share with us what stats they have "crunched, mulled and mashed" to come up with their recommendation to back the LDs in Mid-Beds. They offer no reply. Without explaining, it's finger in the air stuff and lacks credibility.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 7, 2023 18:31:43 GMT
A few times now, I have asked @theprogalliance to share with us what stats they have "crunched, muled and mashed" to come up with their recommendation to back the LDs in Mid-Beds. They offer no reply. Without explaining, it's finger in the air stuff and lacks credibility. Beyond me how anyone can claim any objective statistical evidence to make much of a recommendation for Mid-Beds - I'd have thought actual voters living in the bloody place were better positioned to make a call. Just as bad is Electoral Calculus, which regularly predicts Labour finishing ahead of Lib Dems (and sometimes winning) in notional Tory seats which are actually Lib Dem held following by-elections, as if no-one in those places is going to work out who the main challenger is.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 7, 2023 18:50:07 GMT
A few times now, I have asked @theprogalliance to share with us what stats they have "crunched, muled and mashed" to come up with their recommendation to back the LDs in Mid-Beds. They offer no reply. Without explaining, it's finger in the air stuff and lacks credibility. Beyond me how anyone can claim any objective statistical evidence to make much of a recommendation for Mid-Beds - I'd have thought actual voters living in the bloody place were better positioned to make a call. Just as bad is Electoral Calculus, which regularly predicts Labour finishing ahead of Lib Dems (and sometimes winning) in notional Tory seats which are actually Lib Dem held following by-elections, as if no-one in those places is going to work out who the main challenger is. A couple of Lib dem activists from the area have engaged with me and they tend to talk about high floors and low ceilings for Labour and the opposite for them. The point in Mid-Beds is surely whether or not Labour's ceiling is high enough to win, not whether the Lib Dems can get a bigger majority if Labour don't campaign very hard. I think it is a genuine 3-way toss up who wins.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 7, 2023 19:08:06 GMT
Beyond me how anyone can claim any objective statistical evidence to make much of a recommendation for Mid-Beds - I'd have thought actual voters living in the bloody place were better positioned to make a call. Just as bad is Electoral Calculus, which regularly predicts Labour finishing ahead of Lib Dems (and sometimes winning) in notional Tory seats which are actually Lib Dem held following by-elections, as if no-one in those places is going to work out who the main challenger is. A couple of Lib dem atcivists from the area have engaged with me and they tend to talk about high floors and low ceilings for Labour and the opposite for them. The point in Mid-Beds is surely whether or not Labour's ceiling is high enough to win, not whether the Lib Dems can get a bigger majority if Labour don't campaign very hard. I think it is a genuine 3-way toss up who wins. I would have thought the floor-ceiling argument was correct in that sort of seat, but I agree it's irrelevant if the Conservative vote share heads to a floor well below the ceiling of either Labour or Lib Dems. I genuinely have no idea (and haven't been there - yet) and apart from being psephologically fun I think it will be instructive to see how things pan out in a 3-way contest. If I was risking a bet (which I'm not) I'd give some consideration to the historic Lib Dem ability to find a key local issue to hang a by-election campaign on, and Labour's relatively poor record in by-elections. Whereas in a GE in the same constituency, I'd give much more weight to Labour's greater salience in the national media narrative.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Sept 7, 2023 19:16:01 GMT
Beyond me how anyone can claim any objective statistical evidence to make much of a recommendation for Mid-Beds - I'd have thought actual voters living in the bloody place were better positioned to make a call. Just as bad is Electoral Calculus, which regularly predicts Labour finishing ahead of Lib Dems (and sometimes winning) in notional Tory seats which are actually Lib Dem held following by-elections, as if no-one in those places is going to work out who the main challenger is. A couple of Lib dem atcivists from the area have engaged with me and they tend to talk about high floors and low ceilings for Labour and the opposite for them. The point in Mid-Beds is surely whether or not Labour's ceiling is high enough to win, not whether the Lib Dems can get a bigger majority if Labour don't campaign very hard. I think it is a genuine 3-way toss up who wins. The Betting markets seem to give that impression. The LDs remain favourites but have faded from circa 4/1 on in early June to circa 6/4 now - SMarkets gives them a 38.5% chance now compared with almost 80% back in June. Labour and the Tories are very close together on 2/1 or 9/4 depending on the bookie. There is no longer an odds on favourite here. A poll or two could well change that.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 7, 2023 19:16:29 GMT
A few times now, I have asked @theprogalliance to share with us what stats they have "crunched, muled and mashed" to come up with their recommendation to back the LDs in Mid-Beds. They offer no reply. Without explaining, it's finger in the air stuff and lacks credibility. Beyond me how anyone can claim any objective statistical evidence to make much of a recommendation for Mid-Beds - I'd have thought actual voters living in the bloody place were better positioned to make a call. Just as bad is Electoral Calculus, which regularly predicts Labour finishing ahead of Lib Dems (and sometimes winning) in notional Tory seats which are actually Lib Dem held following by-elections, as if no-one in those places is going to work out who the main challenger is. Electoral Calculus just applies the discredited uniform swing method and applies it across all seats within a nation.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,660
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 7, 2023 19:23:15 GMT
A couple of Lib dem atcivists from the area have engaged with me and they tend to talk about high floors and low ceilings for Labour and the opposite for them. The point in Mid-Beds is surely whether or not Labour's ceiling is high enough to win, not whether the Lib Dems can get a bigger majority if Labour don't campaign very hard. I think it is a genuine 3-way toss up who wins. I would have thought the floor-ceiling argument was correct in that sort of seat, but I agree it's irrelevant if the Conservative vote share heads to a floor well below the ceiling of either Labour or Lib Dems. I genuinely have no idea (and haven't been there - yet) and apart from being psephologically fun I think it will be instructive to see how things pan out in a 3-way contest. If I was risking a bet (which I'm not) I'd give some consideration to the historic Lib Dem ability to find a key local issue to hang a by-election campaign on, and Labour's relatively poor record in by-elections. Whereas in a GE in the same constituency, I'd give much more weight to Labour's greater salience in the national media narrative.You may well be right. Whilst chatting with a Lib Dem canvassing down there, he said that Labour's problem was a lack of a local candidate - a position that baffles me as, as has been constantly pointed out, their candidate is born and raised there and left for work. The Lib Dem doesn't live in the constituency, and never has, although she is from Bedfordshire. It really shouldn't matter, but if the Lib Dems go too hard on it, Alistair Strathern's family, friends, former teachers and schoolmates, whom he has posted meeting lots of times on social media (not saying they are all voting for him) may well decide to kick up a fuss.
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Post by matureleft on Sept 7, 2023 20:23:07 GMT
It looks a particularly difficult seat to poll at all accurately. Didn’t something get published what seems an age ago? I presume we’ll have careful use of canvass returns in due course (if that isn’t happening already?).
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Post by carolus on Sept 7, 2023 20:41:38 GMT
Beyond me how anyone can claim any objective statistical evidence to make much of a recommendation for Mid-Beds - I'd have thought actual voters living in the bloody place were better positioned to make a call. Just as bad is Electoral Calculus, which regularly predicts Labour finishing ahead of Lib Dems (and sometimes winning) in notional Tory seats which are actually Lib Dem held following by-elections, as if no-one in those places is going to work out who the main challenger is. Electoral Calculus just applies the discredited uniform swing method and applies it across all seats within a nation. For what it's worth (not much, I still wouldn't trust their predictions for amongst others the reason Adam gives), I don't think they are just UNS any more, and are instead trying to do something more sophisticated.
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