graham
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Post by graham on Sept 6, 2023 10:52:13 GMT
My dad lives in Bedford so I'll be passing through this seat a few times before the poll. I remember in 2019 you saw huge Lib Dem diamonds in St Albans constituency. Maybe the Lib Dems do that here. I think Tories hold due to split opposition. Look what happened in the recent Bedford mayoral election for example. It is difficult to see the LDs winning here without a significant squeezing of the Labour vote. As things stand today, that seems unlikely. A strong performance by the local Independent is also lkely to be bad news for them in that this candidate is likely to attract disaffected Tory voters who otherwise might well have switched to the LDs - rather than to Labour.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 6, 2023 10:58:58 GMT
My dad lives in Bedford so I'll be passing through this seat a few times before the poll. I remember in 2019 you saw huge Lib Dem diamonds in St Albans constituency. Maybe the Lib Dems do that here. I think Tories hold due to split opposition. Look what happened in the recent Bedford mayoral election for example. that's fairly usually for St Albans. I grew up seeing them everywhere. I think I was about 10 when I said to my mum 'why do they say winning here when they aren't'
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 6, 2023 11:22:20 GMT
that's fairly usually for St Albans. I grew up seeing them everywhere. I think I was about 10 when I said to my mum 'why do they say winning here when they aren't' And such a good question. Answer being that they have spent over 100-years primarily engaged in lying about nearly everything they speak of, and that must be one of the reasons that they are so massively unsuccessful? Alternatively, the party is rather too honest for its own good (e.g. consistently ranked most accurate by the FT for costing its proposed programme of government) but the electorate prefers to be told reassuring lies than difficult truths...
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 6, 2023 11:25:10 GMT
My dad lives in Bedford so I'll be passing through this seat a few times before the poll. I remember in 2019 you saw huge Lib Dem diamonds in St Albans constituency. Maybe the Lib Dems do that here. I think Tories hold due to split opposition. Look what happened in the recent Bedford mayoral election for example. It is difficult to see the LDs winning here without a significant squeezing of the Labour vote. As things stand today, that seems unlikely. A strong performance by the local Independent is also lkely to be bad news for them in that this candidate is likely to attract disaffected Tory voters who otherwise might well have switched to the LDs - rather than to Labour. Didn't you say EXACTLY the same thing (minus the Independent bit) about North Shropshire?! And Somerton and Frome? And when we have discussed the likely outcome in Wimbledon at the next GE? You might be right this time, but your credibility is much undermined by constantly using the same argument in favour of your preferred party...
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 6, 2023 11:31:31 GMT
And such a good question. Answer being that they have spent over 100-years primarily engaged in lying about nearly everything they speak of, and that must be one of the reasons that they are so massively unsuccessful? Alternatively, the party is rather too honest for its own good (e.g. consistently ranked most accurate by the FT for costing its proposed programme of government) but the electorate prefers to be told reassuring lies than difficult truths... Well you surely are the boys for reassuring and outright lies. No other party can get close to you on that.
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2023 11:40:00 GMT
It is difficult to see the LDs winning here without a significant squeezing of the Labour vote. As things stand today, that seems unlikely. A strong performance by the local Independent is also lkely to be bad news for them in that this candidate is likely to attract disaffected Tory voters who otherwise might well have switched to the LDs - rather than to Labour. Didn't you say EXACTLY the same thing (minus the Independent bit) about North Shropshire?! And Somerton and Frome? And when we have discussed the likely outcome in Wimbledon at the next GE? You might be right this time, but your credibility is much undermined by constantly using the same argument in favour of your preferred party... I prefer to take graham's posts as they come. Sometimes I consider he is wide of the mark, in fact quite often. I don't think, however, that Mid Beds is quite the same situation as the other by-elections you mention. There was no real evidence that Labour was seriously in the running in those, in Mid Beds there is much more evidence. Anything could happen in this by-election, a bit like Glasgow Hillhead where all 3 parties appeared at different times in the campaign to be ahead.
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 6, 2023 11:48:27 GMT
Didn't you say EXACTLY the same thing (minus the Independent bit) about North Shropshire?! And Somerton and Frome? And when we have discussed the likely outcome in Wimbledon at the next GE? You might be right this time, but your credibility is much undermined by constantly using the same argument in favour of your preferred party... I prefer to take graham's posts as they come. Sometimes I consider he is wide of the mark, in fact quite often. I don't think, however, that Mid Beds is quite the same situation as the other by-elections you mention. There was no real evidence that Labour was seriously in the running in those, in Mid Beds there is much more evidence. Anything could happen in this by-election, a bit like Glasgow Hillhead where all 3 parties appeared at different times in the campaign to be ahead. As it happens I agree there is more chance of graham being right about Mid Beds than any of the other cases; I would rank the likely winners as Labour just ahead of the Tories, with Lib Dems in third - maybe 40%, 35%, 25%. It just lacks a little credibility if the same argument comes up over and over again in different circumstances...
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2023 11:55:28 GMT
No, it doesn't, you just take each case as it comes. Every poster here (well almost every one ) is capable of being completely wrong, but very few are incapable of being right at least sometimes. Certain trolls are incapable of it however.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2023 12:37:00 GMT
It'll be funny if we get a four-way split like this one:
General election 1992: Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber Party Candidate Votes % ±% Liberal Democrats Russell Johnston 13,258 26.0 −10.8 Labour David Stewart 12,800 25.1 −0.3 SNP Fergus Ewing 12,562 24.7 +9.9 Conservative John Scott 11,517 22.6 −0.4 Scottish Green John Martin 766 1.5 New Majority 458 0.9 −10.5 Turnout 50,903 73.6 +2.7 Liberal Democrats hold Swing −5.3
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bigfatron
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 6, 2023 12:39:42 GMT
It'll be funny if we get a four-way split like this one: General election 1992: Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber Party Candidate Votes % ±% Liberal Democrats Russell Johnston 13,258 26.0 −10.8 Labour David Stewart 12,800 25.1 −0.3 SNP Fergus Ewing 12,562 24.7 +9.9 Conservative John Scott 11,517 22.6 −0.4 Scottish Green John Martin 766 1.5 New Majority 458 0.9 −10.5 Turnout 50,903 73.6 +2.7 Liberal Democrats hold Swing −5.3 I'd love that... especially the SNP vote just for the shits and giggles!
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graham
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Post by graham on Sept 6, 2023 12:41:15 GMT
It is difficult to see the LDs winning here without a significant squeezing of the Labour vote. As things stand today, that seems unlikely. A strong performance by the local Independent is also lkely to be bad news for them in that this candidate is likely to attract disaffected Tory voters who otherwise might well have switched to the LDs - rather than to Labour. Didn't you say EXACTLY the same thing (minus the Independent bit) about North Shropshire?! And Somerton and Frome? And when we have discussed the likely outcome in Wimbledon at the next GE? You might be right this time, but your credibility is much undermined by constantly using the same argument in favour of your preferred party... First I have only voted Labour at 2 of the last 7 GEs - and do not intend doing so next year. I certainly never suggested that Labour would fight Somerton & Frome seriously - but did point out that the Boundary changes transfer Frome to a seat where the party might be competitive and that on account of that it might do some campaigning in that part of the seat. In the event, that did not happen as far as I am aware. Re- North Shropshire I have said that were that by election happening now - rather than in December 2021 - Labour would be likely to take the contest more seriously than it did at the time - ie on the lines of Mid Bedordshire. Moreover, the LD success in Somerton & Frome and North Shropshire DID rely on squezzing the Labour vote to a large extent - so I fail to see my comments as being particularly inconsistent.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 6, 2023 12:45:02 GMT
And such a good question. Answer being that they have spent over 100-years primarily engaged in lying about nearly everything they speak of, and that must be one of the reasons that they are so massively unsuccessful? Alternatively, the party is rather too honest for its own good (e.g. consistently ranked most accurate by the FT for costing its proposed programme of government) but the electorate prefers to be told reassuring lies than difficult truths... good guys finish last
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 6, 2023 12:47:42 GMT
During the coalition the golden triangle was changed from winning here to 'on your side'. I suppose there's only so much defeat one can take
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 6, 2023 13:14:39 GMT
This will be an intriguing by-election...the polls suggest a narrow Labour win, you cant rule out a Con hold or an Ind win, and the bookies still have the LDs as favourites!
/photo/1
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 6, 2023 13:26:30 GMT
Didn't you say EXACTLY the same thing (minus the Independent bit) about North Shropshire?! And Somerton and Frome? And when we have discussed the likely outcome in Wimbledon at the next GE? You might be right this time, but your credibility is much undermined by constantly using the same argument in favour of your preferred party... First I have only voted Labour at 2 of the last 7 GEs - and do not intend doing so next year. I certainly never suggested that Labour would fight Somerton & Frome seriously - but did point out that the Boundary changes transfer Frome to a seat where the party might be competitive and that on account of that it might do some campaigning in that part of the seat. In the event, that did not happen as far as I am aware. Re- North Shropshire I have said that were that by election happening now - rather than in December 2021 - Labour would be likely to take the contest more seriously than it did at the time - ie on the lines of Mid Bedordshire. Moreover, the LD success in Somerton & Frome and North Shropshire DID rely on squezzing the Labour vote to a large extent - so I fail to see my comments as being particularly inconsistent.
May i ask which 2 please?
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 6, 2023 13:28:24 GMT
This will be an intriguing by-election...the polls suggest a narrow Labour win, you cant rule out a Con hold or an Ind win, and the bookies still have the LDs as favourites! /photo/1 I don't gamble and don't approve of it. But the technical values here seem to me Green Very poor value indeed LD Poor value LAB Fair value CON Better than fair value
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Sept 6, 2023 13:32:25 GMT
Alternatively, the party is rather too honest for its own good (e.g. consistently ranked most accurate by the FT for costing its proposed programme of government) but the electorate prefers to be told reassuring lies than difficult truths... Well you surely are the boys for reassuring and outright lies. No other party can get close to you on that. Liked as i couldnt find your original post below to like: And such a good question. Answer being that they have spent over 100-years primarily engaged in lying about nearly everything they speak of, and that must be one of the reasons that they are so massively unsuccessful?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 6, 2023 13:37:27 GMT
The simpler more rural parts?! It's not Appalachia Even if you accept some validity in that argument, any route to a Labour win here is surely through the small towns rather than the truly rural areas.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 6, 2023 15:01:15 GMT
Excellent trolling from Chris Bryant!
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 6, 2023 15:10:07 GMT
Excellent trolling from Chris Bryant! I think he's trying a bit too hard these days tbh.
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