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Post by finsobruce on Oct 6, 2023 15:24:37 GMT
What did John Curtice think though? No idea and care even less. John Curtis is the boy for me I mean - have you ever seen them together? |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Oct 6, 2023 15:40:33 GMT
Most of the abstainers are likely to be voters who in the past have voted both SNP and Labour. I would expect many of them to switch next year to the party which has clear momentum. what about peole who just liked Ferrier |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2023 15:43:01 GMT
The online comments from SNP members saying how they need to "listen" to the voters, but then claiming that they all just stayed at home and didn't back Labour, is self-deluded. They have already decided not to listen to reality.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 15:46:45 GMT
The online comments from SNP members saying how they need to "listen" to the voters, but then claiming that they all just stayed at home and didn't back Labour, is self-deluded. They have already decided not to listen to reality. Hear, hear. |
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Sandy
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Post by Sandy on Oct 6, 2023 16:18:06 GMT
The online comments from SNP members saying how they need to "listen" to the voters, but then claiming that they all just stayed at home and didn't back Labour, is self-deluded. They have already decided not to listen to reality. “Red Tory” is being thrown around again, it’s very tiresome and not very original. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 6, 2023 17:04:56 GMT
The online comments from SNP members saying how they need to "listen" to the voters, but then claiming that they all just stayed at home and didn't back Labour, is self-deluded. They have already decided not to listen to reality. “Red Tory” is being thrown around again, it’s very tiresome and not very original. To be fair, they're not wrong. SLAB have been moving sharply to the right and nicking a lot of our, Scot Tories, policies. They now want to keep taxes as they are, or lower them, they're now in favour of oil and gas, with Sarwar adopting even Ross's words, and they're now against gender self-ID. We must thank the Greens and Yousaf for tanking the more red hot variety of socialism in Scotland. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 6, 2023 17:25:15 GMT
You know what this by-election reminds me of? It feels very much like Glasgow Garscadden, in 1978 (the winner of that being none other than Labour's Donald Dewar). Glasgow Garscadden at the time was a relatively safe Labour seat, with a modest but not tiny majority over the SNP. Labour in Scotland just as in England had had a rather torrid time during that parliament so far, including a split which led to the formation by Jim Sillars of the short-lived Scottish Labour Party as an independent breakaway from the Britain-wide Labour Party - although as it happens there had been no parliamentary by-elections in Scotland during the parliament up to that point. Labour was (and remained) in a shaky position in the polls, and the SNP posed an obvious threat in the by-election, which had been caused by the death of the Labour MP. Nobody was quite sure who would win. In the event, while there was a small swing to the SNP, Labour held the seat with considerable comfort, and went on to perform strongly in Scotland in the general election, holding all of their October 1974 seats, and gaining 2 from the SNP and one (Glasgow Cathcart) from the Tories. Before the general election there was another by-election in the much more socially mixed seat of Berwick & East Lothian, which had been a Labour gain from the Tories in the October 1974 election, and that too was held quite impressively by Labour. Glasgow Garscadden was only a Labour hold in a seat which had been, in one form or another, been Labour for quite some years, but it ended up being a turning point for the party in Scotland, and the SNP did not perform well against Labour for years afterwards. Of course the circumstances of the two elections are dissimilar, but somehow this by-election feels a little similar to me; Labour was generally expected to win both seats, but the margin of victory exceeded most expectations in both cases. One big difference of course is that Labour was still in a poor position in the polls in 1978, and lost the general election, whereas that is very unlikely to be the outcome this year, and yet I can't help feeling rather the same as I did 45 years ago, at a time when I had only recently joined the Labour Party.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 6, 2023 18:41:41 GMT
You know what this by-election reminds me of? It feels very much like Glasgow Garscadden, in 1978 (the winner of that being none other than Labour's Donald Dewar). Glasgow Garscadden at the time was a relatively safe Labour seat, with a modest but not tiny majority over the SNP. Labour in Scotland just as in England had had a rather torrid time during that parliament so far, including a split which led to the formation by Jim Sillars of the short-lived Scottish Labour Party as an independent breakaway from the Britain-wide Labour Party - although as it happens there had been no parliamentary by-elections in Scotland during the parliament up to that point. Labour was (and remained) in a shaky position in the polls, and the SNP posed an obvious threat in the by-election, which had been caused by the death of the Labour MP. Nobody was quite sure who would win. In the event, while there was a small swing to the SNP, Labour held the seat with considerable comfort, and went on to perform strongly in Scotland in the general election, holding all of their October 1974 seats, and gaining 2 from the SNP and one (Glasgow Cathcart) from the Tories. Before the general election there was another by-election in the much more socially mixed seat of Berwick & East Lothian, which had been a Labour gain from the Tories in the October 1974 election, and that too was held quite impressively by Labour. Glasgow Garscadden was only a Labour hold in a seat which had been, in one form or another, been Labour for quite some years, but it ended up being a turning point for the party in Scotland, and the SNP did not perform well against Labour for years afterwards. Of course the circumstances of the two elections are dissimilar, but somehow this by-election feels a little similar to me; Labour was generally expected to win both seats, but the margin of victory exceeded most expectations in both cases. One big difference of course is that Labour was still in a poor position in the polls in 1978, and lost the general election, whereas that is very unlikely to be the outcome this year, and yet I can't help feeling rather the same as I did 45 years ago, at a time when I had only recently joined the Labour Party. I remember the Garscadden by election very well indeed - and also recall that at the beginning of the by election programme the talk was of Labour holding by 1,500 but when declared Donald dewar had a comfortable majority of well over 4,000. Not many weeks later came another By election when George Robertson doubled the Labour majority at Hamilton to 6,000 despite Margo Macdonald being the SNP candidate. In the summer of 1978 John Macintosh sadly died and the resulting by election at Berwick & East Lothian that Autumn actually showed a swing to Labour from the Tories compared with October 1974. I disagree only on one point - ie that Labour was still in a poor position in the polls at that time. By Autumn 1978 Labour was 5.5% ahead according to Gallup - and at any time that year Callaghan would have managed a better result than what he faced in May 1979. To this day, I find it difficult to forgive him for failing to call an election in the Autumn or late Spring of 1978.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 6, 2023 18:53:17 GMT
The Glasgow Garscadden by-election also had an SNP candidate who was not a good fit for the area-Keith Bovey, who gained some negative publicity for his pro-life views.
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 6, 2023 18:56:31 GMT
goodness I must be getting old - I had sort of forgotten about the Hamilton by-election. Of course I remember it well now. I also remember him holding his seat early on election night 1997 with a huge (for that rather small constituency) majority and his speech. Iain Lawson was the Tory candidate in Garscadden, of course later falling out with his party.
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Post by greenhert on Oct 6, 2023 19:04:38 GMT
If this is what just happened in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, imagine what it will be like if that rumoured by-election in East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmagahow does happen.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2023 19:16:22 GMT
If this is what just happened in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, imagine what it will be like if that rumoured by-election in East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmagahow does happen. The party apparatchik, Grant Costello, who the SNP machine is backing to deselect Dr. Lisa Cameron, was all over the Rutherglen and Hamilton West campaign. Whether the SNP has the sense to pull back from deselecting her, for the temerity of standing up for the sexual assault victim of the then SNP Chief Whip, remains to be seen. It seems bizarre that they would be so stupid, but we will see. If she is deselected, she could walk straight back into a job as a consultant clinical psychologist, and I reckon she would, without a backwards glance at the shambles who have lost all political balance and nous. If she does, Labour will be odds-on to win a subsequent byelection in East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2023 19:21:29 GMT
If this is what just happened in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, imagine what it will be like if that rumoured by-election in East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmagahow does happen. The party apparatchik, Grant Costello, who the SNP machine is backing to deselect Dr. Lisa Cameron, was all over the Rutherglen and Hamilton West campaign. Whether the SNP has the sense to pull back from deselecting her, for the temerity of standing up for the sexual assault victim of the then SNP Chief Whip, remains to be seen. It seems bizarre that they would be so stupid, but we will see. If she is deselected, she could walk straight back into a job as a consultant clinical psychologist, and I reckon she would, without a backwards glance at the shambles who have lost all political balance and nous. If she does, Labour will be odds-on to win a subsequent byelection East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow. I’d agree, it’s a further way back to come from than Rutherglen but with the swing we saw Labour would be heavily favoured |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 6, 2023 19:33:20 GMT
The party apparatchik, Grant Costello, who the SNP machine is backing to deselect Dr. Lisa Cameron, was all over the Rutherglen and Hamilton West campaign. Whether the SNP has the sense to pull back from deselecting her, for the temerity of standing up for the sexual assault victim of the then SNP Chief Whip, remains to be seen. It seems bizarre that they would be so stupid, but we will see. If she is deselected, she could walk straight back into a job as a consultant clinical psychologist, and I reckon she would, without a backwards glance at the shambles who have lost all political balance and nous. If she does, Labour will be odds-on to win a subsequent byelection East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow. I’d agree, it’s a further way back to come from than Rutherglen but with the swing we saw Labour would be heavily favoured Also a very large Tory vote to squeeze, many of whom were formerly Labour voters. |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 6, 2023 20:57:03 GMT
Compare and contrast to Airdrie and Shotts by-election in 2021. Conservative vote in Airdrie was down by over a quarter of what it was in 2019. In Rutherglen, it was down by 74% of what it was in 2019. Correspondingly, Labour gained 6.5% of the vote in Airdrie and 24.1% of the vote in Rutherglen, aligning with a higher drop-off of support for the Conservatives in the two seats. A core part of Labour's messaging was to vote Labour to stop the SNP here, and it worked a charm. There are other reasons why the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party's vote might be more robust in a constituency containing Airdrie regardless of opinion polling at the time. This is a piss poor result for the SNP - one they probably deserved and clearly opens up the possibility of Labour doing very much better in seats than previous conjecture. Let's also see if Labour can overhaul the SNP in GE voting intention polls. While unionist tactical voting has been a thing for a while now it fundamentally misses the point that until the indy Yes/No preference voting shares move significantly in favour of the union there's a floor to the SNP's support (unless a more popular nationalist alternative emerges). Labour in Rutherglen will have attracted significant numbers of Indy supporters on Thursday as SNP voters switched. The question is will a less muscular unionist position firstly keep them on board and secondly start to turn them away from Indy? Because until the constitutional question moves away from around 50:50 the votes can easily swing back like they did between 2017 and 2019. |
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 6, 2023 21:10:27 GMT
There are other reasons why the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party's vote might be more robust in a constituency containing Airdrie regardless of opinion polling at the time. This is a piss poor result for the SNP - one they probably deserved and clearly opens up the possibility of Labour doing very much better in seats than previous conjecture. Let's also see if Labour can overhaul the SNP in GE voting intention polls. While unionist tactical voting has been a thing for a while now it fundamentally misses the point that until the indy Yes/No preference voting shares move significantly in favour of the union there's a floor to the SNP's support (unless a more popular nationalist alternative emerges). Labour in Rutherglen will have attracted significant numbers of Indy supporters on Thursday as SNP voters switched. The question is will a less muscular unionist position firstly keep them on board and secondly start to turn them away from Indy? Because until the constitutional question moves away from around 50:50 the votes can easily swing back like they did between 2017 and 2019. I suspect the salience of the Independence issue has faded quite a bit even for Yes voters. That in itself might well be sufficient to detach many people from the SNP - particularly at a Westminster election. |
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Post by michaelarden on Oct 6, 2023 21:26:42 GMT
I suspect the salience of the Independence issue has faded quite a bit even for Yes voters. That in itself might well be sufficient to detach many people from the SNP - particularly at a Westminster election. No doubt - but it makes for a sensitive position for Labour running into the next Scottish Parliament elections. If they've attracted a significant Indy vote following and continue with a hard unionist position in government at Westminster then they'll struggle at Holyrood. Yes they can wheel out Gordon Brown and a renewed 'vow' but they would have to be a government that was prepared to accept different priorities north of the border and welcome debate - and there's precious little sign of Starmer and his advisors accepting that. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Oct 6, 2023 23:16:35 GMT
The party apparatchik, Grant Costello, who the SNP machine is backing to deselect Dr. Lisa Cameron, was all over the Rutherglen and Hamilton West campaign. Whether the SNP has the sense to pull back from deselecting her, for the temerity of standing up for the sexual assault victim of the then SNP Chief Whip, remains to be seen. It seems bizarre that they would be so stupid, but we will see. If she is deselected, she could walk straight back into a job as a consultant clinical psychologist, and I reckon she would, without a backwards glance at the shambles who have lost all political balance and nous. If she does, Labour will be odds-on to win a subsequent byelection East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow. I’d agree, it’s a further way back to come from than Rutherglen but with the swing we saw Labour would be heavily favoured There's also precedent; there was a recent council by-election in a partly semi-rural ward on the outskirts of East Kilbride (so, therefore, definitely not Labour's best area in the constituency) which was won convincingly by Labour. East Kilbride West ward IIRC |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 7, 2023 5:00:06 GMT
It doesn't help the SNP that their leadership contest went 52-48 (where have I seen that number before) in favour of Humza Yousaf.
Another way this seat is iconic is that it was the first SNP by-election win in the modern era, when Winnie Ewing won Hamilton in 1967.
Yes I know most of this seat is Rutherglen ofc, but much of it isn't that seat and it does cover part of Winning Ewing's old Hamilton seat.
It'd be good to have the LDs back as third party at Westminster. It's been too long. The Tories can't use the SNP phalanx to attack Labour.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 7, 2023 5:31:53 GMT
It doesn't help the SNP that their leadership contest went 52-48 (where have I seen that number before) in favour of Humza Yousaf. Another way this seat is iconic is that it was the first SNP by-election win in the modern era, when Winnie Ewing won Hamilton in 1967. Yes I know most of this seat is Rutherglen ofc, but much of it isn't that seat and it does cover part of Winning Ewing's old Hamilton seat. It'd be good to have the LDs back as third party at Westminster. It's been too long. The Tories can't use the SNP phalanx to attack Labour. (a) It’s the proportion of the electorate in the new Streatham & Croydon North constituency: Streatham 39,464 (51.892%) Croydon North 36,586 (48.108%) which (accurate to three decimal places) are the same percentages as the result of the EU referendum in 2016. (b) I think it would be good to have the Green Party as the third largest party in the House of Commons. They could win the 4 seats they seem to be targeting. We could allow them to be in joint third place with Plaid Cymru, also on 4 seats. The incorrect parties like the SNP and Lib Dems should be reduced to 3 or fewer. Northern Ireland constituencies can start electing the normal proper parties (Conservative and Labour) as well. |
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