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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 11:27:40 GMT
No offence to @weld . People are right that some of your analysis is just annoying ramping we could all live without seeing. But its also a bit weird that both carlton43 and East Anglian Lefty pick out some of the few posts on this entire thread where you have made altogether sane and reasonable assessments. Really? Do please explain to me how that by-election result confirms his assertion of '... tactical voters played a huge part here ...'. Just show me that evidence. I am all agog to see it. Compare and contrast to Airdrie and Shotts by-election in 2021. Conservative vote in Airdrie was down by over a quarter of what it was in 2019. In Rutherglen, it was down by 74% of what it was in 2019. Correspondingly, Labour gained 6.5% of the vote in Airdrie and 24.1% of the vote in Rutherglen, aligning with a higher drop-off of support for the Conservatives in the two seats. A core part of Labour's messaging was to vote Labour to stop the SNP here, and it worked a charm. Its a similar effect that's transformed the south of Edinburgh into a Labour stronghold despite having supported the Conservatives at local and regional elections in 2016 and 2017, and making Dumbarton a Labour seat at Holyrood through the support of Conservatives in Helensburgh and Lomond area. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 11:28:32 GMT
Labour 58.6 +24.1 SNP 27.6 -16.6 So that is the two principals 86.2% with a notional 20.3% Swing from SNP to Labour. It was barely tactical at all. It was a mood swing from one party to the other but against the background of a very low poll into which not a huge amount should be read. Now compare your bland jargon analysis of "I think tactical voting played a huge part here ..." Really? Well did it? Do you know what those terms mean? Did you look at the figures? Did you understand them at all? What on earth is the pont of all these gobshite stupid posts you make? Why do you do it? It’s a big swing in percentages, but it doesn’t have to be a swing in actual voters (real people) at all. The Labour vote went down (net) by 700. The SNP vote went down by 15,376. Conservative down by 6,862. But John that is exactly what I had posted! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 6, 2023 11:30:50 GMT
Really? Do please explain to me how that by-election result confirms his assertion of '... tactical voters played a huge part here ...'. Just show me that evidence. I am all agog to see it. Compare and contrast to Airdrie and Shotts by-election in 2021. Conservative vote in Airdrie was down by over a quarter of what it was in 2019. In Rutherglen, it was down by 74% of what it was in 2019. Correspondingly, Labour gained 6.5% of the vote in Airdrie and 24.1% of the vote in Rutherglen, aligning with a higher drop-off of support for the Conservatives in the two seats. A core part of Labour's messaging was to vote Labour to stop the SNP here, and it worked a charm. And do we think there might have been any changes in national polling between 2021 and today? |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 11:31:52 GMT
Anyone who thinks that there was no tactical voting for Labour in this seat but instead all is well with the Conservative vote in Rutherglen and 85% of Conservative voters decided to stay at home despite being the most likely demographic of people to turn out at a by-election is living in cloud coo-coo land.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 6, 2023 11:37:09 GMT
Most of the abstainers are likely to be voters who in the past have voted both SNP and Labour. I would expect many of them to switch next year to the party which has clear momentum.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 6, 2023 11:37:47 GMT
The SNP may not have learned what the LibDems appear to have done, namely don't bang on about the same old thing if there are other pressing issues. Going on and on about the EU during a cost of living crisis isn't a good look; banging on about independence isn't either. I can't help seeing some SNP voters as refusing to accept what side of the sliding doors they're currently positioned at, refusing to accept that the independence referendum may well have been the one and only chance, and its gone. Look at Volt UK and RejoinEU, you don't want to end up like them, right?
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 11:41:42 GMT
Really? Do please explain to me how that by-election result confirms his assertion of '... tactical voters played a huge part here ...'. Just show me that evidence. I am all agog to see it. Compare and contrast to Airdrie and Shotts by-election in 2021. Conservative vote in Airdrie was down by over a quarter of what it was in 2019. In Rutherglen, it was down by 74% of what it was in 2019. Correspondingly, Labour gained 6.5% of the vote in Airdrie and 24.1% of the vote in Rutherglen, aligning with a higher drop-off of support for the Conservatives in the two seats. A core part of Labour's messaging was to vote Labour to stop the SNP here, and it worked a charm. Its a similar effect that's transformed the south of Edinburgh into a Labour stronghold despite having supported the Conservatives at local and regional elections in 2016 and 2017, and making Dumbarton a Labour seat at Holyrood through the support of Conservatives in Helensburgh and Lomond area. Oh dear! My last post on this thread. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 6, 2023 12:22:40 GMT
Presumably that means that 2 people wrote “Margaret Ferrier X” on their ballot paper (or similar) rather than that they were actually votes for her. In Croydon in one of the recent general elections (I think it was in Croydon South in 2017) there was a real-life ballot paper from a completely different constituency (somewhere in the Midlands, I think) in one of the ballot boxes. It must have been someone’s postal vote. If I remember correctly, it was actually counted as a spoilt vote rather than merely discarded as an external piece of rubbish. Hopefully no-one actually thinks we have US style write-in systems! Just in case it’s not clear, what I meant was that there was a possibility that the two abovementioned “votes for Margaret Ferrier” might have been actual votes for her on old ballot papers from the previous election |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 6, 2023 12:37:12 GMT
"Ramping" is an unfair and partisan characterisation of what I've read. It's simply a fact that tactical voting is a reality in Scotland and that politics is somewhat different here, compared to say East Anglia, as a result of the constitutional question. How that pans out in a situation where the SNP vote is now falling, and substantially so on this result, is a legitimate area of discussion. It's a legitimate area of discussion. However, the evidence that there is going to be tactical voting in favour of the Tories is at best absent from tonight's result. There wouldn't be in Rutherglen. Yet, there is evidence of tactical voting. I'd say that makes the discussion valid about what may happen next year in somewhere like Gordon/Gordon and Buchan. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 6, 2023 12:42:08 GMT
Yes, and what the many who stayed at home do in a GE will of course be key in determining how bad it ends up being for the SNP. How do you feel about the Green performance, expecting any better at all or not? Hoped for a little better, but given the context of the by-election, the fact we've never stood here and that we've never saved deposit in a Westminster by-election, not particularly surprised. I think my prediction was a little higher than we got, but I certainly never thought we'd be close to saving a deposit. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 6, 2023 12:44:02 GMT
It’s a big swing in percentages, but it doesn’t have to be a swing in actual voters (real people) at all. The Labour vote went down (net) by 700. The SNP vote went down by 15,376. Conservative down by 6,862. But John that is exactly what I had posted! Yes I know it was. I was agreeing with you. In other words, I was disagreeing with @weld. Don’t you want people to disagree with @weld? The more the merrier! |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 6, 2023 12:46:36 GMT
How do you feel about the Green performance, expecting any better at all or not? That type of question is utterly pointless. This was a two horse race. All other parties were quite irrelevant and nothing at all may be read into their performance. It was not about any of them and it bears no regard to their popularity or lack of it. I could make an argument that the party who had the best result after Labour was Alba, who saved themselves a deposit and a humiliating vote  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 13:22:40 GMT
But John that is exactly what I had posted! Yes I know it was. I was agreeing with you. In other words, I was disagreeing with @weld . Don’t you want people to disagree with @weld ? The more the merrier! Can I help you? |
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Oct 6, 2023 13:42:52 GMT
Apparently this result came as a surprise to John Curtis.
We're all in the wrong business it seems
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 6, 2023 13:43:18 GMT
Look at Volt UK and RejoinEU, you don't want to end up like them, right? Particularly the former. Obsessive and self-absorbed to the point of parody. |
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 6, 2023 14:23:57 GMT
Apparently this result came as a surprise to John Curtis. We're all in the wrong business it seems You shouldve entered the prediction contest then smart arse, you wouldve walked it
Only 3 people predicted a majority of more than 15% and only 1 predicted Labour to get more than 50%, whereas in the actual vote the majority was 31% and the Labour vote almost 60%. The result (for whatever reasons) was way out of line with all reasonable expectations of even "experts" like us  |
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Oct 6, 2023 14:38:28 GMT
Apparently this result came as a surprise to John Curtis. We're all in the wrong business it seems What did John Curtice think though? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 6, 2023 14:44:59 GMT
Apparently this result came as a surprise to John Curtis. We're all in the wrong business it seems The sheer scale of it came as a surprise to me too. Though, when you live in a one party state for over a decade, it's probably natural. |
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Post by ArmchairCritic on Oct 6, 2023 15:08:07 GMT
Apparently this result came as a surprise to John Curtis. We're all in the wrong business it seems What did John Curtice think though? No idea and care even less. John Curtis is the boy for me |
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Post by uthacalthing on Oct 6, 2023 15:15:30 GMT
the collapse of the Tory share surely tells its own story. Where do you think a fair bit of that vote went? Ikea. |
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