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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 6, 2023 10:34:57 GMT
The great god Wikipedia puts the swing at the bottom of its "biggest ever swings" table, a smidge less than Leeds Central 1999, a smidge more than Eastbourne 1990.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 10:37:40 GMT
If we are going to assume that former Conservative voters are 'evil' and parties who win votes or have won votes from former Conservative voters are evil by extension as SNP politicians appear to be doing, then surely the SNP are guilty of having won many voters over in the North East of Scotland in 2011-15.
For example former SNP MP Eilidh Whiteford lost 11,000 votes in Banff & Buchan in 2017, Labour and the Liberal Democrats vote hardly changed. The Conservatives magically gained nearly 7,000 votes. But who from?
And yet this is the same party who have the brass-neck of accusing other parties of trying to stoke division and culture wars??
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 6, 2023 10:38:04 GMT
Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. The crucial facts and figures here are what happened between the two principle parties in nearly a straight fight situation, and the the very low TO of only 37.2%! So the only hard fact is that virtually two thirds of the electorate were unaware or couldn't care enough even to express an opinion. In such circimstances the major interest must be in the precise nature of the stay-at-home for each party and less importantly the churn in the votes of those one third of electors who did vote. And the reasons for the staying at home and for the churn such as it may have been? I agree with Carlton, though I may have phrased it differently in respect of Weld. Taking the percentages and reading into them evidence of vote switching is a mug's game when there is a big fall in turnout. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 10:38:17 GMT
Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. Hmmm, may I just gently point out the fact that @weld did quite well in the prediction competition for this seat? And on this occasion at least, his point seems not unreasonable. Yes there was a sizeable direct SNP to Labour switch (despite Nat politicians being totally in denial about this on the airwaves this morning) but the collapse of the Tory share surely tells its own story. Where do you think a fair bit of that vote went? I have already posted what I think above. On such a low TO it is difficult to say much at all with any certainty. The Conservative vote fall is undoubtedly from unpopularity and disfavour. Some will have gone here and some there. A bit will certainly have been tactical on the Unionist basis. A smaller bit tactical on anti-Labour basis. Most will be Did Not Wish To Vote At All. That was the clear winner from all parties, even to a minor extent Labour. We shall never know the intra-party churn nor the stay at home differential between parties. Many will have forgotten or misremembered how they voted, or if they voted, if they are questioned after the event by psephologists. Apathy and ennui were the clear drivers here and that is hardly surprising. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 6, 2023 10:38:29 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP. This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be. "Ramping" is an unfair and partisan characterisation of what I've read. It's simply a fact that tactical voting is a reality in Scotland and that politics is somewhat different here, compared to say East Anglia, as a result of the constitutional question. How that pans out in a situation where the SNP vote is now falling, and substantially so on this result, is a legitimate area of discussion. It's a legitimate area of discussion. However, the evidence that there is going to be tactical voting in favour of the Tories is at best absent from tonight's result. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 10:40:07 GMT
I think tactical voting played a huge part here. For the same reason that I don’t expect Labour to get fewer votes than they have members in Chesham & Amersham next time. Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. Calm down! |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2023 10:40:29 GMT
Like with pretty much every other Scottish seat in 2017 there was a surge in the Tory vote here that held up quite well in 2019, quite a bit of that will have been strongly unionist minded Labour voters who were happy with the relentless pro-union message from the Tories and didn’t trust Corbyn’s commitment to it
Those kind of voters will likely be returning to Labour, certainly in seats like where it’s a clear Labour-SNP contest
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 10:41:42 GMT
No offence to @weld . People are right that some of your analysis is just annoying ramping we could all live without seeing. But its also a bit weird that both carlton43 and East Anglian Lefty pick out some of the few posts on this entire thread where you have made altogether sane and reasonable assessments. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 10:41:55 GMT
Like with pretty much every other Scottish seat in 2017 there was a surge in the Tory vote here that held up quite well in 2019, quite a bit of that will have been strongly unionist minded Labour voters who were happy with the relentless pro-union message from the Tories and didn’t trust Corbyn’s commitment to it Those kind of voters will likely be returning to Labour, certainly in seats like where it’s a clear Labour-SNP contest If you voted Tory here in the 2010s because you liked Ruth Davidson and you saw an opportunity in 2023 to give the SNP a bloody nose, who would you vote for? Labour ofc! |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 10:49:58 GMT
Like with pretty much every other Scottish seat in 2017 there was a surge in the Tory vote here that held up quite well in 2019, quite a bit of that will have been strongly unionist minded Labour voters who were happy with the relentless pro-union message from the Tories and didn’t trust Corbyn’s commitment to it Those kind of voters will likely be returning to Labour, certainly in seats like where it’s a clear Labour-SNP contest If you voted Tory here in the 2010s because you liked Ruth Davidson and you saw an opportunity in 2023 to give the SNP a bloody nose, who would you vote for? Labour ofc! Keir Starmer's Labour is much more palatable for centre to centre-right voters in Scotland who voted Conservative/Liberal Democrat in 2017 and 2019 compared to Corbyn's Labour. The idea that such a huge tactical squeeze is typical in Scottish by-elections is complete and utter shite, for example the Conservatives won 13% of the vote in the Airdrie & Shotts by-election in 2021. There is definitely something to be said for a rising anti-SNP tactical vote and that is perhaps because the three main pro-UK parties are more politically aligned than they have ever been. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2023 10:50:30 GMT
"Ramping" is an unfair and partisan characterisation of what I've read. It's simply a fact that tactical voting is a reality in Scotland and that politics is somewhat different here, compared to say East Anglia, as a result of the constitutional question. How that pans out in a situation where the SNP vote is now falling, and substantially so on this result, is a legitimate area of discussion. It's a legitimate area of discussion. However, the evidence that there is going to be tactical voting in favour of the Tories is at best absent from tonight's result. Putting any ramping aside, there wouldn’t be any evidence of it here as the Tories were clearly not the best tactical option against the SNP. It would need a by-election in a seat where they are the main two competitors to get any indication either way |
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Post by afleitch on Oct 6, 2023 10:53:59 GMT
From 2005 to 2017, Labour's vote share here was between 1.38 to 1.45 times Labour's vote share in Scotland. In 2019, it was 1.85 times, suggestive of stronger unionist tactical voting in the seat. Take the average of the last two polls for Labour at 31% and multiply by 1.85 gets you to 57% FWIW. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 11:04:19 GMT
If you voted Tory here in the 2010s because you liked Ruth Davidson and you saw an opportunity in 2023 to give the SNP a bloody nose, who would you vote for? Labour ofc! Keir Starmer's Labour is much more palatable for centre to centre-right voters in Scotland who voted Conservative/Liberal Democrat in 2017 and 2019 compared to Corbyn's Labour. The idea that such a huge tactical squeeze is typical in Scottish by-elections is complete and utter shite, for example the Conservatives won 13% of the vote in the Airdrie & Shotts by-election in 2021. There is definitely something to be said for a rising anti-SNP tactical vote and that is perhaps because the three main pro-UK parties are more politically aligned than they have ever been. You may be right but we only had that by-election and this one as evidence of widespread tactical voting or lack of. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 11:07:44 GMT
No offence to @weld . People are right that some of your analysis is just annoying ramping we could all live without seeing. But its also a bit weird that both carlton43 and East Anglian Lefty pick out some of the few posts on this entire thread where you have made altogether sane and reasonable assessments. Really? Do please explain to me how that by-election result confirms his assertion of '... tactical voters played a huge part here ...'. Just show me that evidence. I am all agog to see it. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 6, 2023 11:08:31 GMT
A quick mental calculation has the SNP losing around 2 in 5 of their 2019 vote (percentage wise) which was a drop of around 15, 000 votes. Despite a substantially low by-election turnout, the Labour vote wasn't far off 2019. You can't claim that was tactical voting. Vast numbers of SNP voters stayed at home and/or switched to Labour. Yes, and what the many who stayed at home do in a GE will of course be key in determining how bad it ends up being for the SNP. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2023 11:12:19 GMT
A quick mental calculation has the SNP losing around 2 in 5 of their 2019 vote (percentage wise) which was a drop of around 15, 000 votes. Despite a substantially low by-election turnout, the Labour vote wasn't far off 2019. You can't claim that was tactical voting. Vast numbers of SNP voters stayed at home and/or switched to Labour. Yes, and what the many who stayed at home do in a GE will of course be key in determining how bad it ends up being for the SNP. How do you feel about the Green performance, expecting any better at all or not? |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 11:21:22 GMT
Yes, and what the many who stayed at home do in a GE will of course be key in determining how bad it ends up being for the SNP. How do you feel about the Green performance, expecting any better at all or not? That type of question is utterly pointless. This was a two horse race. All other parties were quite irrelevant and nothing at all may be read into their performance. It was not about any of them and it bears no regard to their popularity or lack of it. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2023 11:23:00 GMT
How do you feel about the Green performance, expecting any better at all or not? That type of question is utterly pointless. This was a two horse race. All other parties were quite irrelevant and nothing at all may be read into their performance. It was not about any of them and it bears no regard to their popularity or lack of it. Perhaps but just a minor bit of personal interest, nothing that I think is consequential |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 6, 2023 11:26:51 GMT
I saw a tweet when the polls closed (I'd link, but Twitter is playing up for me at the moment) saying that the Greens thought their returns pointed to "a second list seat in the region". I'd assume that the region being referred to was Glasgow rather than Central Scotland. That wouldn't necessarily require a great result, since Rutherglen isn't one of the stronger parts of the Glasgow region for the Greens, but it does suggest to me that there might have been a problem with their data.
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 6, 2023 11:26:58 GMT
Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. Labour 58.6 +24.1 SNP 27.6 -16.6 So that is the two principals 86.2% with a notional 20.3% Swing from SNP to Labour. It was barely tactical at all. It was a mood swing from one party to the other but against the background of a very low poll into which not a huge amount should be read. Now compare your bland jargon analysis of "I think tactical voting played a huge part here ..." Really? Well did it? Do you know what those terms mean? Did you look at the figures? Did you understand them at all? What on earth is the pont of all these gobshite stupid posts you make? Why do you do it? It’s a big swing in percentages, but it doesn’t have to be a swing in actual voters (real people) at all. The Labour vote went down (net) by 700. The SNP vote went down by 15,376. Conservative down by 6,862. |
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