Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 9:00:21 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP. This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be. I think tactical voting played a huge part here. For the same reason that I don’t expect Labour to get fewer votes than they have members in Chesham & Amersham next time. |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Oct 6, 2023 9:00:46 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP. This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be. The Tories nearly always suffer from transfer toxicity so that’s nothing new. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 9:04:03 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP. This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be. Let's be clear this is mostly just the predictable ramblings of weld who predictably ramps about Tory prospects in Scotland on every thread. I should point out my post was in response to a worse-case scenario for the SNP he asked about in Argyll & Bute and Inverness. For the case of Inverness, the Lib Dems are the likely challengers to the SNP followed by Labour. For Argyll & Bute, its hard not to think of the Conservatives as the main challengers to the SNP, who have been the second largest party in the constituency in all elections since 2017. This followed probably by the Lib Dems should an anti-SNP/anti-Conservative tactical vote coalesce around them. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 9:09:46 GMT
On another note, Labour would be very wise to never put John McTernan in front of a TV camera again. Whether intentional or not, he comes across as deeply complacent and clueless about the concerns and feelings of human voters. At one point in response to a point of Lesley Griddoch's he also said "I'm actually John McTernan and I'm right." I believe this was the man who helped to end Julia Gillard and Jim Murphy's careers. Aha! The old 'Human Voters' issue raises its head again. Always consider that McTernan probably has all the inhuman voters, the AI virtual voters, the undead and allies in the palm of his hand. |
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Post by afleitch on Oct 6, 2023 9:12:22 GMT
A shocker of a result, in so much as the seat was never publicly polled. It's clear Labour knew this was coming despite mischievous expectation management last night. It was a well worked seat during the campaign and a successful result.
Tory and SNP result was dire; the SNP clearly got hit by both abstainers and switchers. The Tories will say votes to Labour were 'lent' rather than being a sign of the same voter collapse south of the border.
The 'big' by election successes we've already seen in England don't happen based solely on national polling. They are exceptional. That's the point. If the national polling in Scotland doesn't shift, bar an immediate but transient blip, then that would not be unusual. The expectation that Labour would win being so heavily trailed may take the edge off the top line result, which most won't drill into the way us weirdos do.
For the SNP there's several take-aways.
1. Even if the above turns out to be true, that willing Tory sepukko was so drastic it brings more seats into Labour's contention even if the SNP recover.
2. Internal battles need to be dealt with more deftly. It's the Achilles heel; there will always be 'if only Kate Forbes fnar fnar' and rent-a-quotes from the awkward squad will always get a sympathetic ear, but there's serious internal issues that need to be addressed prior to the GE.
3. The GE is on the electoral road. It's not the end of it. Even if there's a bruising GE, the SNP are in office till at least 2026 which could be eighteen months to two years into a Labour government. It's perhaps easier to defend it's record if Labour's is proved wanting. If it's not, then it's potentially a harder fall.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 9:18:17 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP. This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be. Let's be clear this is mostly just the predictable ramblings of weld who predictably ramps about Tory prospects in Scotland on every thread. I should point out my post was in response to a worse-case scenario for the SNP he asked about in Argyll & Bute and Inverness. For the case of Inverness, the Lib Dems are the likely challengers to the SNP followed by Labour. For Argyll & Bute, its hard not to think of the Conservatives as the main challengers to the SNP, who have been the second largest party in the constituency in all elections since 2017. This followed probably by the Lib Dems should an anti-SNP/anti-Conservative tactical vote coalesce around them. I obvs got carried away by the Scotland-wide UNS. Sorry. Labour won big here, and I’m distracting from that. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 9:20:11 GMT
On another note, Labour would be very wise to never put John McTernan in front of a TV camera again. Whether intentional or not, he comes across as deeply complacent and clueless about the concerns and feelings of human voters. At one point in response to a point of Lesley Griddoch's he also said "I'm actually John McTernan and I'm right." I believe this was the man who helped to end Julia Gillard and Jim Murphy's careers. Aha! The old 'Human Voters' issue raises its head again. Always consider that McTernan probably has all the inhuman voters, the AI virtual voters, the undead and allies in the palm of his hand. He's the best personification I have ever seen of the old 'Labour elite' in Scotland which was perceived to be taking Scotland for granted come Labour's annihilation in 2011, 2015 and 2016. He consistently argued the climate crisis is the biggest issue people in Scotland want action on for example but nobody in Scotland or the UK wants action on migration. This is just detached from reality, regardless of your own position on those issues it is undeniable people in Scotland are most concerned about inflation, mortgage rates and NHS services (with polling evidence to boot) issues that affect them on their day to day life, while there are people across the UK (rightly) worried about the rate of migration into the country. That does not make them bigoted. Add this with a healthy dose of complacency that it's Labours time and you've got yourself John McTernan. In my humble opinion one of the least relatable Labour politicians I've ever seen on TV. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 6, 2023 9:35:53 GMT
My god this victory rally intro is cringe.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 6, 2023 9:35:56 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP. This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be. "Ramping" is an unfair and partisan characterisation of what I've read. It's simply a fact that tactical voting is a reality in Scotland and that politics is somewhat different here, compared to say East Anglia, as a result of the constitutional question. How that pans out in a situation where the SNP vote is now falling, and substantially so on this result, is a legitimate area of discussion. |
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Post by MacShimidh on Oct 6, 2023 9:38:11 GMT
On another note, Labour would be very wise to never put John McTernan in front of a TV camera again. Whether intentional or not, he comes across as deeply complacent and clueless about the concerns and feelings of human voters. At one point in response to a point of Lesley Griddoch's he also said "I'm actually John McTernan and I'm right." I believe this was the man who helped to end Julia Gillard and Jim Murphy's careers. It was handbags at dawn between him and Keith Brown - the only real moment of levity in an otherwise dismal pundit show. |
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 6, 2023 9:57:06 GMT
Labour vote share:2010 - 60.8%2023 - 58.6%. If we won even half the seats we held in Scotland in 2010 I’d be over the moon, and Labour would be on the path to government nationally |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 10:04:21 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP. This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be. I think tactical voting played a huge part here. For the same reason that I don’t expect Labour to get fewer votes than they have members in Chesham & Amersham next time. Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. |
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msc
Non-Aligned
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Post by msc on Oct 6, 2023 10:11:50 GMT
A quick mental calculation has the SNP losing around 2 in 5 of their 2019 vote (percentage wise) which was a drop of around 15, 000 votes. Despite a substantially low by-election turnout, the Labour vote wasn't far off 2019.
You can't claim that was tactical voting. Vast numbers of SNP voters stayed at home and/or switched to Labour.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 10:12:28 GMT
I think tactical voting played a huge part here. For the same reason that I don’t expect Labour to get fewer votes than they have members in Chesham & Amersham next time. Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. The crucial facts and figures here are what happened between the two principle parties in nearly a straight fight situation, and the the very low TO of only 37.2%! So the only hard fact is that virtually two thirds of the electorate were unaware or couldn't care enough even to express an opinion. In such circimstances the major interest must be in the precise nature of the stay-at-home for each party and less importantly the churn in the votes of those one third of electors who did vote. And the reasons for the staying at home and for the churn such as it may have been? |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2023 10:12:28 GMT
Labour vote share:2010 - 60.8%2023 - 58.6%. If we won even half the seats we held in Scotland in 2010 I’d be over the moon, and Labour would be on the path to government nationally I think Labour will get a majority without Scotland anyway with the way polling has been for ages but some Scottish seats will certainly make the majority more comfortable. Plus there’s symbolic importance in terms of the union and winning back heartlands |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 6, 2023 10:22:35 GMT
I think tactical voting played a huge part here. For the same reason that I don’t expect Labour to get fewer votes than they have members in Chesham & Amersham next time. Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. Labour 58.6 +24.1 SNP 27.6 -16.6 So that is the two principals 86.2% with a notional 20.3% Swing from SNP to Labour. It was barely tactical at all. It was a mood swing from one party to the other but against the background of a very low poll into which not a huge amount should be read. Now compare your bland jargon analysis of "I think tactical voting played a huge part here ..." Really? Well did it? Do you know what those terms mean? Did you look at the figures? Did you understand them at all? What on earth is the pont of all these gobshite stupid posts you make? Why do you do it? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 10:24:01 GMT
I think tactical voting played a huge part here. For the same reason that I don’t expect Labour to get fewer votes than they have members in Chesham & Amersham next time. Well then, you would be seriously wrong yet again wouldn't you? Why do you do this? You are so bad at it and you add nothing on a Forum where many know quite a lot. I wasn't going to bother with this by-election but I shall to evidence what real analysis is like to compare and contrast with your utter shite. Hmmm, may I just gently point out the fact that @weld did quite well in the prediction competition for this seat? And on this occasion at least, his point seems not unreasonable. Yes there was a sizeable direct SNP to Labour switch (despite Nat politicians being totally in denial about this on the airwaves this morning) but the collapse of the Tory share surely tells its own story. Where do you think a fair bit of that vote went? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 6, 2023 10:29:06 GMT
It will not help the SNP to be silly & mean-minded in their reaction to what is this drubbing. Just saying it's Tories voting tactically will not cut it when the Labour vote is 59%. They need to hold their hands up & say they were beaten fair & square & not make pathetic excuses. It's a bad result for the Tories, even given they never had a chance, it's a truly dire one for the SNP. If they want to recover they will have to change the mood music. It's both hilarious and excruciating to watch SNP politicians blame the Tories of Rutherglen for sending a Labour MP to Westminster. Because we all know that Rutherglen and Hamilton West, the home of zero Tory Councillors, was very much a heartland of Conservatism in Scotland before this by-election result. I've been to Rutherglen. It didn't exactly remind me of Alderley Edge, Huntingdon or Henley on Thames. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 6, 2023 10:32:15 GMT
On the BBC's election coverage there was mention of a 7% Labour lead with the Conservatives losing their deposit. This wouldn't be an incredibly good result for Labour relative to how they have been performing in the opinion polls So where did this little gem come from, then? ISTR not dissimilar misinformation just a few hours before the Selby result was declared. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 10:34:14 GMT
It's both hilarious and excruciating to watch SNP politicians blame the Tories of Rutherglen for sending a Labour MP to Westminster. Because we all know that Rutherglen and Hamilton West, the home of zero Tory Councillors, was very much a heartland of Conservatism in Scotland before this by-election result. I've been to Rutherglen. It didn't exactly remind me of Alderley Edge, Huntingdon or Henley on Thames. There are pockets of affluence in the constituency. For example the suburb of Earnock in Hamilton, and the grand old houses of Burnside and central Cambuslang. However no polling district in the entire constituency voted Conservative at the 2022 local election, and on 58% of the vote across the constituency I would expect Labour to have won every single polling district in the seat which includes many highly deprived communities. |
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