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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 3:23:16 GMT
Maybe somebody should point out to the next SNP politician who uses the Tories as an excuse for Labour's win here that an 11% drop in the Conservative vote cannot solely account for a 24% rise in the Labour vote, though perhaps this is the sort of numeracy skills we should expect coming from an education system run by the SNP.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 6, 2023 3:31:32 GMT
Yes, yes, it's only a one of by-election, But it is a self-fulfilling prophecy The SNP is going to get utterly destroyed next year I predicted three months ago. 15 seats. I might have been overstating it. One day I'll see them lose Perth. One day. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 3:51:12 GMT
One day I'll see them lose Perth. One day. The Scottish Tories did win the List vote in Perthshire South & Kinross-shire in 2016, but yes, 2001 and 2017 were agonising for them. I think they need a Labour recovery in Perth city itself where I think a large-ish public sector vote means they have a low ceiling in the seat. I think they have a credible shot at Angus & Perthshire Glens though. ntyuk1707, when was the last time Strathspey had a Tory/Unionist MP, Ross & Cromarty 1979? Inverness 1950s? |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 4:05:34 GMT
One day I'll see them lose Perth. One day. The Scottish Tories did win the List vote in Perthshire South & Kinross-shire in 2016, but yes, 2001 and 2017 were agonising for them. I think they need a Labour recovery in Perth city itself where I think a large-ish public sector vote means they have a low ceiling in the seat. I think they have a credible shot at Angus & Perthshire Glens though. ntyuk1707 , when was the last time Strathspey had a Tory/Unionist MP, Ross & Cromarty 1979? Inverness 1950s? Technically most of Strathspey is currently represented by Conservative MP Douglas Ross. The Highland part of Strathspey was last represented by the Unionists from 1931-1964 as part of Inverness constituency, though it is currently the best area for the Conservatives in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey constituency. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 5:01:42 GMT
Labour vote share:
2010 - 60.8%
2023 - 58.6%.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Oct 6, 2023 7:00:47 GMT
It will not help the SNP to be silly & mean-minded in their reaction to what is this drubbing. Just saying it's Tories voting tactically will not cut it when the Labour vote is 59%. They need to hold their hands up & say they were beaten fair & square & not make pathetic excuses. It's a bad result for the Tories, even given they never had a chance, it's a truly dire one for the SNP. If they want to recover they will have to change the mood music. The SNP got 27.6% of the vote. That's way too low for them to credibly blame tactical voting for their defeat, and even if the Tories had got the same share they got in 2019 and the difference had all come from Labour, the SNP would still have lost by a distance. |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Oct 6, 2023 7:01:59 GMT
I see there is not much interest in Rangers and Celtic joining the English Premier League.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 7:17:03 GMT
A non-zero chance of an SNP wipeout in the 2024 GE, IMO. The last time the Nationalists didn’t win anything was 1966.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Oct 6, 2023 7:19:26 GMT
The BBC coverage, at least online, is atrocious. I had to scroll all the way down in order not to find the actual result so ended up getting it from Sky where it was at the bottom of the page. No normal person wants to read all that blurb before seeing the actual result.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Oct 6, 2023 7:21:42 GMT
Spectacular for Lab - congratulations.
I suspect the SNP will go mighty quiet on using the next GE as a proxy independence referendum now, in fact the Tories might do well to remind them often and loudly.
Prizes for everyone if the SNP really are going back to a handful of seats, as es the case as recently as 2010. under FPTP when the tide is out, you get hammered and there are no safety nets.
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graham
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Post by graham on Oct 6, 2023 8:11:44 GMT
Scottish Conservatives’ competitive in Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey. Considering the extent of tactical voting yesterday (Tories losing their deposit), I’d imagine the SNP may be at risk of losing Angus & Perthshire Glens to the Tories too. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could also go their way. On the basis of this result Labour could be well placed in Ayr,Carrick & Cumnock. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2023 8:18:33 GMT
Scottish Conservatives’ competitive in Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey. Considering the extent of tactical voting yesterday (Tories losing their deposit), I’d imagine the SNP may be at risk of losing Angus & Perthshire Glens to the Tories too. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could also go their way. On the basis of this result Labour could be well placed in Ayr,Carrick & Cumnock. I think Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey is now the Tories' best chance of a gain in 2024, Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock second best. |
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Post by willpower3 on Oct 6, 2023 8:34:35 GMT
Labour vote share:2010 - 60.8%2023 - 58.6%. Presumably (without checking) with a lot more parties/candidates standing too. |
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Post by batman on Oct 6, 2023 8:36:38 GMT
Scottish Conservatives’ competitive in Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey. Considering the extent of tactical voting yesterday (Tories losing their deposit), I’d imagine the SNP may be at risk of losing Angus & Perthshire Glens to the Tories too. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could also go their way. On the basis of this result Labour could be well placed in Ayr,Carrick & Cumnock. yes, at least one other contributor has agreed with you, and I might well, too |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2023 8:45:32 GMT
It will be interesting to see if the SNP could fall to third anywhere, I think I’m right in saying that in all FPTP constituency contests at Westminster and Holyrood since the 2015 election they’ve finished at least second everywhere
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Sandy
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Post by Sandy on Oct 6, 2023 8:48:15 GMT
It will be interesting to see if the SNP could fall to third anywhere, I think I’m right in saying that in all FPTP constituency contests at Westminster and Holyrood since the 2015 election they’ve finished at least second everywhere Dumfries & Galloway or Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale possibly? |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 8:49:40 GMT
The SNP really do lack grace and humility in defeat. Instead of trying to learn any lessons from this defeat, it is now doing the rounds on social media this morning from SNP politicians and members that Labour have now gone from one MP to two, equal to the number of Pandas in Edinburgh zoo.
Keith Brown was utterly disgraceful on the election coverage in the morning in trying to fling every person attack he could think of towards Labour politicians, blaming voters of Rutherglen for voting Labour and constantly speaking over Jackie Baillie but then accusing her of speaking over him when after entering his diatribe.
A by-election in East Kilbride with another stonking defeat for the SNP can't come soon enough. The complacency in taking Scotland for granted by the party is astounding
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 6, 2023 8:55:47 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP.
This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Oct 6, 2023 8:59:53 GMT
On another note, Labour would be very wise to never put John McTernan in front of a TV camera again. Whether intentional or not, he comes across as deeply complacent and clueless about the concerns and feelings of human voters.
At one point in response to a point of Lesley Griddoch's he also said "I'm actually John McTernan and I'm right."
I believe this was the man who helped to end Julia Gillard and Jim Murphy's careers.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 6, 2023 9:00:01 GMT
Despite the predictable ramping of Tory prospects after they just lost their deposit, I would point out that Labour transfers in the recent Girvan and South Carrick by-election referred to in this thread actually favoured the SNP. This result is evidence that the SNP are unpopular in Rutherglen & Hamilton West, and probably that the reasons for that extend beyond the circumstances of the by-election. It is not evidence that the Tories are going to do well in the Highlands, no matter how much you want it to be. I don’t think that’s been said about the Highlands, do you mean the North East? |
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