Rutherglen & Hamilton West

[manchesterman]

Oct 6, 2023 0:57:45 GMT uthacalthing said:

Yes, yes, it's only a one of by-election,

But it is a self-fulfilling prophecy

The SNP is going to get utterly destroyed next year

I predicted three months ago. 15 seats. I might have been overstating it.

[uthacalthing]

Andrew Bowie is such a lucky boy

[stb12]

Oct 6, 2023 0:53:17 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Candidate	Description	Votes	%	Change
Michael Shanks	Scottish Labour Party	17,845	58.6	+24.1
Katherine Jane Loudon	Scottish National Party (SNP)	8,399	27.6	-16.6
Thomas Jordan Kerr	Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party	1,192	3.9	-11.1
Gloria Ijeoma Olukemi Adebo	Scottish Liberal Democrats	895	2.9	-2.3
Cameron Alexander Eadie	Scottish Green Party	601	2.0
Thomas David Stark	Reform UK - Changing Politics for Good	403	1.3
Niall Fraser	Scottish Family Party - Fearlessly Speaking Truth	319	1.0
William Bonnar	Scottish Socialist Party - Free Public Transport	271	0.9
Colette Walker	Independence for Scotland Party	207	0.7
Christopher Anthony Sermanni	Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	178	0.6
Andrew Vincent Daly	Independent	81	0.3
Ewan Hoyle	Volt UK - The UK in Europe	46	0.2
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India		34	0.1
Garry Patrick Cooke		6	0.0

That makes over 65% for parties in favour of the UK

[Sandy]

Oct 6, 2023 1:07:13 GMT manchesterman said:

Oct 6, 2023 0:57:45 GMT uthacalthing said:

Yes, yes, it's only a one of by-election,

But it is a self-fulfilling prophecy

The SNP is going to get utterly destroyed next year

I predicted three months ago. 15 seats. I might have been overstating it.

Just a little bit more to cost them Inverness would be lovely

[graham]

Oct 6, 2023 1:07:13 GMT manchesterman said:

Oct 6, 2023 0:57:45 GMT uthacalthing said:

Yes, yes, it's only a one of by-election,

But it is a self-fulfilling prophecy

The SNP is going to get utterly destroyed next year

I predicted three months ago. 15 seats. I might have been overstating it.

On this showing Labour would again be competitive in seats like Dumfrieshie, East Dunbaronshire  , Inverness and others where the party has recently fallen back to third place.

[ntyuk1707]

Oct 6, 2023 1:07:13 GMT manchesterman said:

Oct 6, 2023 0:57:45 GMT uthacalthing said:

Yes, yes, it's only a one of by-election,

But it is a self-fulfilling prophecy

The SNP is going to get utterly destroyed next year

I predicted three months ago. 15 seats. I might have been overstating it.

There is clearly a growing unionist tactical vote in Scotland as witnessed in the recent Girvan & South Carrick by-election result for the Conservatives. The SNP's remaining seats in this map are all, barring Broughty Ferry & Arbroath, Inverness and Argyll & Bute, seats which the Conservatives won in 2017.

If things are really that bad for the SNP and there is a lot of tactical voting against the party/low turnout of SNP voters, it could well be close to a wipe-out for the party.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Referendums, eh. Who'd have them.

[stb12]

Oct 6, 2023 1:16:02 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Oct 6, 2023 1:07:13 GMT manchesterman said:

There is clearly a growing unionist tactical vote in Scotland as witnessed in the recent Girvan & South Carrick by-election result for the Conservatives. The SNP's remaining seats in this map are all, barring Broughty Ferry & Arbroath, Inverness and Argyll & Bute, seats which the Conservatives won in 2017.

If things are really that bad for the SNP and there is a lot of tactical voting against the party/low turnout of SNP voters, it could well be close to a wipe-out for the party.

Yes, I don't doubt some of the Tory vote would have naturally dropped off anyway but it isn't going to disappear to this extent in seats where they're the SNP's main competitor

[johnloony]

Oct 6, 2023 0:37:42 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Presumably that means that 2 people wrote “Margaret Ferrier X” on their ballot paper (or similar) rather than that they were actually votes for her. In Croydon in one of the recent general elections (I think it was in Croydon South in 2017) there was a real-life ballot paper from a completely different constituency (somewhere in the Midlands, I think) in one of the ballot boxes. It must have been someone’s postal vote. If I remember correctly, it was actually counted as a spoilt vote rather than merely discarded as an external piece of rubbish.

[uthacalthing]

Every SNP Office boy and girl now knows that the taxpayer funding that underpins their job is under threat. And with it their mortgage and maybe their marriage. And it is an employment requirement that they be a member of the SNP so they all have voting rights.

Every SNP councilor knows that their £16k plus Special Responsibility Allowance is subject to the winds of change.

Every SNP member who just so happens to hold a position on a publicly funded body that just so happens to pay them per diem and expenses.........well you get the message.

I hope not all of their kids go hungry.

[stb12]

Oct 6, 2023 1:30:30 GMT johnloony said:

Oct 6, 2023 0:37:42 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Presumably that means that 2 people wrote “Margaret Ferrier X” on their ballot paper (or similar) rather than that they were actually votes for her. In Croydon in one of the recent general elections (I think it was in Croydon South in 2017) there was a real-life ballot paper from a completely different constituency (somewhere in the Midlands, I think) in one of the ballot boxes. It must have been someone’s postal vote. If I remember correctly, it was actually counted as a spoilt vote rather than merely discarded as an external piece of rubbish.

Hopefully no-one actually thinks we have US style write-in systems!

[johnloony]

During the declaration, I was watching Sky News and obviously I was concentrating on writing down the numbers rather than looking at the screen. But I have just watched back on the iPlayer the declaration on the BBC results programme, and the camera view was a much closer close-up rather than Sky’s distant view.

Thus I noticed something rather odd: the Lib Dem candidate was standing directly behind the R.O. during the declaration, and then directly behind the Labour MP. during his victory speech, so her own face was completely hidden most of the time. I don’t think it was just a trick of the camera angle. It was as if she was deliberately hiding.

Anyway, it reminds me of an incident a few months ago, in which a statement was being made in an African country (I forget exactly which) by a political spokesperson or politician or whoever. I think it was in the context of a coup or similar event. Anyway, the official sign language interpreter was standing directly behind the politician speaking, so that only her face - but not her hands or signs - was visible.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Oct 6, 2023 1:03:12 GMT uthacalthing said:

Let me tell you what happens now.

The SNP turn in on themselves. It's going to be lovely.

The campervan of fate has the handbrake off.

[Deleted]

Oct 6, 2023 1:07:13 GMT manchesterman said:

Oct 6, 2023 0:57:45 GMT uthacalthing said:

Yes, yes, it's only a one of by-election,

But it is a self-fulfilling prophecy

The SNP is going to get utterly destroyed next year

I predicted three months ago. 15 seats. I might have been overstating it.

Scottish Conservatives’ competitive in Moray West, Nairn & Strathspey. Considering the extent of tactical voting yesterday (Tories losing their deposit), I’d imagine the SNP may be at risk of losing Angus & Perthshire Glens to the Tories too. Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock could also go their way.

[uthacalthing]

Tactical voting will not benefit the Tories where they are in second as they are as toxic as the SNP but it might save them where they hold the seat, just as it might save the SNP where the Tories are in second

Labour will win Ayr Carrick and Cumnock. The question is where else can the party in third overtake both toxic parties?

Not Banff and Buchan. Maybe WAnK or Gordon, maybe Aberdeen South 

[ntyuk1707]

Labour would by no measure be dead certain to win Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock but that constituency would certainly be more likely to be a Conservative-Labour marginal if tonight's result is anything to extrapolate off of and Labour would probably be favourites. Traditional Labour areas which had previously voted SNP would return to fold. But bear in mind that the Tories were on 42% and ahead of Labour in South Ayrshire in 2003, and they did well at the recent Girvan & South Carrick by-election.

Labour would also be favourites to win East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South West and drop SNP and Conservatives into the distance.

There are many seats where they would jump into first place from third, including Falkirk, Livingston, Linlithgow and all four Ayrshire seats, possibly coming into contention in Dumfries & Galloway and the two Aberdeen seats.

[Deleted]

Oct 6, 2023 2:45:04 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Labour would by no measure be dead certain to win Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock but that constituency would certainly be more likely to be a Conservative-Labour marginal if tonight's result is anything to extrapolate off of and Labour would probably be favourites. Traditional Labour areas which had previously voted SNP would return to fold. But bear in mind that the Tories were on 42% and ahead of Labour in South Ayrshire in 2003, and they did well at the recent Girvan & South Carrick by-election.

Labour would also be favourites to win East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South West and drop SNP and Conservatives into the distance.

There are many seats where they would jump into first place from third, including Falkirk, Livingston, Linlithgow and all four Ayrshire seats, possibly coming into contention in Dumfries & Galloway and the two Aberdeen seats.

I think Labour may also have a chance in Stirling. Labour history plus a decent student vote in Stirling itself. Could we see a 2001 type result in Perth? Who wins Argyll & Bute?

[ntyuk1707]

Oct 6, 2023 2:52:41 GMT @weld said:

Oct 6, 2023 2:45:04 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Labour would by no measure be dead certain to win Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock but that constituency would certainly be more likely to be a Conservative-Labour marginal if tonight's result is anything to extrapolate off of and Labour would probably be favourites. Traditional Labour areas which had previously voted SNP would return to fold. But bear in mind that the Tories were on 42% and ahead of Labour in South Ayrshire in 2003, and they did well at the recent Girvan & South Carrick by-election.

Labour would also be favourites to win East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South West and drop SNP and Conservatives into the distance.

There are many seats where they would jump into first place from third, including Falkirk, Livingston, Linlithgow and all four Ayrshire seats, possibly coming into contention in Dumfries & Galloway and the two Aberdeen seats.

I think Labour may also have a chance in Stirling. Labour history plus a decent student vote in Stirling itself. Could we see a 2001 type result in Perth? Who wins Argyll & Bute?

If the SNP collapsed on the basis of this by-election result with a strong Labour vote nationally, the Conservatives would most likely gain Perth & Kinross-shire, Labour would gain Stirling & Strathallan, whereas Argyll, Bute & Lochaber South and Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross-shire would both have the potential of becoming three/four-way marginals and the result in those constituencies would depend on whether a single unionist party could effectively presented themselves to the electorate as the best-placed party to unseat the SNP. 

Argyll & Bute has clear areas of Conservative strength (for example Kintyre, Lomond) whereas Inverness, Skye & Wester Ross-shire does not, and has had higher rates of tactical voting in favour of the Lib Dems. 

[batman]

It will not help the SNP to be silly & mean-minded in their reaction to what is this drubbing. Just saying it's Tories voting tactically will not cut it when the Labour vote is 59%. They need to hold their hands up & say they were beaten fair & square & not make pathetic excuses. It's a bad result for the Tories, even given they never had a chance, it's a truly dire one for the SNP. If they want to recover they will have to change the mood music.

[ntyuk1707]

Oct 6, 2023 3:14:59 GMT batman said:

It will not help the SNP to be silly & mean-minded in their reaction to what is this drubbing. Just saying it's Tories voting tactically will not cut it when the Labour vote is 59%. They need to hold their hands up & say they were beaten fair & square & not make pathetic excuses. It's a bad result for the Tories, even given they never had a chance, it's a truly dire one for the SNP. If they want to recover they will have to change the mood music.

It's both hilarious and excruciating to watch SNP politicians blame the Tories of Rutherglen for sending a Labour MP to Westminster. Because we all know that Rutherglen and Hamilton West, the home of zero Tory Councillors, was very much a heartland of Conservatism in Scotland before this by-election result.