nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 981
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Post by nyx on Oct 5, 2023 13:58:35 GMT
Surprised at how overwhelmingly people are predicting a Labour victory here. They're probably favoured, but I wouldn't expect a blowout victory, and if the SNP do end up holding the seat I wouldn't be particularly shocked. Both parties will struggle turning voters out.
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Post by stb12 on Oct 5, 2023 14:49:38 GMT
Surprised at how overwhelmingly people are predicting a Labour victory here. They're probably favoured, but I wouldn't expect a blowout victory, and if the SNP do end up holding the seat I wouldn't be particularly shocked. Both parties will struggle turning voters out. The Scottish polls the last few months have been closer than they’ve pretty much been at any point since the independence referendum, this was one of the SNP’s smaller majorities in 2019 and of course was one Labour managed to win back in 2017. Coupled with the UK picture where it’s widely known Labour are very likely heading to government While I wouldn’t entirely rule out the SNP pulling something off with the core vote they’ve built up, if Labour can’t gain this under current circumstances then they’d be as well giving up on Scotland entirely |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 981
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Post by nyx on Oct 5, 2023 15:06:22 GMT
Surprised at how overwhelmingly people are predicting a Labour victory here. They're probably favoured, but I wouldn't expect a blowout victory, and if the SNP do end up holding the seat I wouldn't be particularly shocked. Both parties will struggle turning voters out. The Scottish polls the last few months have been closer than they’ve pretty much been at any point since the independence referendum, this was one of the SNP’s smaller majorities in 2019 and of course was one Labour managed to win back in 2017. Coupled with the UK picture where it’s widely known Labour are very likely heading to government While I wouldn’t entirely rule out the SNP pulling something off with the core vote they’ve built up, if Labour can’t gain this under current circumstances then they’d be as well giving up on Scotland entirely Thing is, the bulk of the Scottish poll narrowing has been Conservative movement to Labour. The SNP have dropped slightly, sure, but they're averaging around 37% in the Scottish polls nowadays while the Greens are on 4%. One could expect the bulk of the Green vote to return to the SNP in a general election environment which would leave them on around 40%, not much below their 2019 vote share of 45%. Basically there's no sign of Labour making a major dent into the pro-independence vote. The major movement is Conservative polling across Scotland dropping 10% from 25% in 2019 to 15% now, whilst Labour has gone up 13% from 19% in 2019 to 32% now. That is the reason we can expect Labour to be Scotland's second party in 2024. This seat doesn't have a massive Tory vote that Labour can eat into (they only got 15% here in 2019, significantly less than their performance across Scotland) which limits their potential for growth. As a result I'd expect this to be a very competitive seat in 2024 that could easily go either way; therefore what will determine a by-election is difference in turnout. And as both SNP and Labour voters seem similarly apathetic there's no reason to believe turnout differentials will favour either. Which is why I'd say the seat is a knife edge that can very feasibly go either way. |
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Post by stb12 on Oct 5, 2023 15:30:17 GMT
The Scottish polls the last few months have been closer than they’ve pretty much been at any point since the independence referendum, this was one of the SNP’s smaller majorities in 2019 and of course was one Labour managed to win back in 2017. Coupled with the UK picture where it’s widely known Labour are very likely heading to government While I wouldn’t entirely rule out the SNP pulling something off with the core vote they’ve built up, if Labour can’t gain this under current circumstances then they’d be as well giving up on Scotland entirely Thing is, the bulk of the Scottish poll narrowing has been Conservative movement to Labour. The SNP have dropped slightly, sure, but they're averaging around 37% in the Scottish polls nowadays while the Greens are on 4%. One could expect the bulk of the Green vote to return to the SNP in a general election environment which would leave them on around 40%, not much below their 2019 vote share of 45%. Basically there's no sign of Labour making a major dent into the pro-independence vote. The major movement is Conservative polling across Scotland dropping 10% from 25% in 2019 to 15% now, whilst Labour has gone up 13% from 19% in 2019 to 32% now. That is the reason we can expect Labour to be Scotland's second party in 2024. This seat doesn't have a massive Tory vote that Labour can eat into (they only got 15% here in 2019, significantly less than their performance across Scotland) which limits their potential for growth. As a result I'd expect this to be a very competitive seat in 2024 that could easily go either way; therefore what will determine a by-election is difference in turnout. And as both SNP and Labour voters seem similarly apathetic there's no reason to believe turnout differentials will favour either. Which is why I'd say the seat is a knife edge that can very feasibly go either way. The type of churn you’re describing can cause some big differences under the FPTP system though, if Labour and the SNP are in a dead head nationally then that definitely puts Labour in a strong position for their old central belt heartlands especially as Scottish Tory voters have a clear willingness to vote tactically based on the union I don’t necessarily agree about the lack of enthusiasm being the same, while Labour might not have the same buzz that was going on under Blair’s early leadership they are still clearly heading back into power and the Scottish Party can be encouraged at being back in 2nd. Whereas the SNP have had the leadership change, ongoing legal turmoil and divisions over their independence strategy. Also going by council by-elections I’d say the SNP base is more likely to be apathetic at the moment I stress that doesn’t mean I’m writing the SNP off or that I think Labour are suddenly going back to the majorities they had in this sort of seat pre-2015. But again Labour couldn’t really have any better circumstances to win a Scottish seat back and I’d be surprised if they didn’t do so by at least a couple of thousand |
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Post by afleitch on Oct 5, 2023 15:54:41 GMT
While I expect a Labour win here, particularly as Labour are publicly confident, it's a seat with an unusual profile.
Labour's performance in the seat since it's creation has shifted broadly in line with Labour's performance across Scotland; good or bad.
From 2005 to 2017, Labour's vote share here was between 1.38 to 1.45 times Labour's vote share in Scotland. In 2019, it was 1.85 times, suggestive of stronger unionist tactical voting in the seat.
Labour's vote share dipped by only 3% in 2019; it's second smallest drop in Scotland.
So a lot of Labour support is baked in already.
There's still some Tory vote to squeeze. They won 15% last time. The lowest they have obtained in the seat is 7.6% in 2015 and prior to that, 8.4% in 2005.
The Lib Dem vote has also been squeezed over the years from 18.4% in 2005 (when they came second); to 5.2% in 2019 (and as low as 1.8% in 2015)
So while there is a vote to squeeze, that in itself would not be enough to overturn the SNP majority. Labour need switchers.
Labour got switchers in 2017 and as mentioned earlier, broadly held on to them. What they require is direct SNP to Labour switchers, or a depressed SNP turnout in lieu.
Absolutely not a problem, given the voting behaviour in 2017.
In terms of the SNP share it has tracked on average 1.01 times the SNP national share since 2015 (when there was a geographic re-sort of voting behaviour) So something else to watch out for.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 5, 2023 16:56:10 GMT
It was an absolute disaster, you only have to listen to some of the constituency declarations to hear that, Motherwell 800 rejected votes (nearly ten times bigger), Glasgow, Cathcart 1,100 rejected votes (around 20 times bigger) The disaster was not the design of the ballot paper; it was the education system decades earlier which produced 800 (or however many) people per constituency who were too stupid to bother to follow simple instructions. |
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Post by afleitch on Oct 5, 2023 17:08:33 GMT
It was an absolute disaster, you only have to listen to some of the constituency declarations to hear that, Motherwell 800 rejected votes (nearly ten times bigger), Glasgow, Cathcart 1,100 rejected votes (around 20 times bigger) The disaster was not the design of the ballot paper; it was the education system decades earlier which produced 800 (or however many) people per constituency who were too stupid to bother to follow simple instructions. I was at the count in 2007 and as a candidate got to see some of the contested ballots and, you're about 60% right! Most clearly hadn't read the instructions leading to spoiled ballots. But the machines also struggled to validate fuck ups that had intent. Like a solitary 'x' on the council vote that the machine thought was too much like a 'European' 7 to count as a solitary preference. But it's clear what the intent of the voter was. What made it worse was the machine putting it's hand up like an excited pupil almost every time it found one. |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,466 
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Post by peterl on Oct 5, 2023 20:56:30 GMT
If the BBC Politics feed is correct, we are in for a long wait
"Good evening and welcome to our live coverage of the crucial Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
The polls are just about to close and now all eyes are focused on the result, which we expect about 1pm."
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 5, 2023 21:01:00 GMT
"Soon" loses all meaning on by-election night.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,675
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 5, 2023 21:03:01 GMT
"Soon" loses all meaning on by-election night. Luckily for us, Hamilton is where the first results are usually announced in Scotland, due to a very good RO and counting team. So, fingers crossed. |
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Post by stb12 on Oct 5, 2023 21:10:04 GMT
"Soon" loses all meaning on by-election night. Luckily for us, Hamilton is where the first results are usually announced in Scotland, due to a very good RO and counting team. So, fingers crossed. It was the first Scottish seat to declare in 2017 as I remember, big sign the SNP were going to have a more difficult night than expected. While it was a Labour gain the increase in the Tory vote also indicted that their Scottish surge was real |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 5, 2023 21:36:44 GMT
It was an absolute disaster, you only have to listen to some of the constituency declarations to hear that, Motherwell 800 rejected votes (nearly ten times bigger), Glasgow, Cathcart 1,100 rejected votes (around 20 times bigger) The disaster was not the design of the ballot paper; it was the education system decades earlier which produced 800 (or however many) people per constituency who were too stupid to bother to follow simple instructions. The Gould report into the problem at those elections disagrees with you. Due to the length of some of the ballot papers and the limitation on ballot papers size imposed by the specific electronic counting software used, some areas removed the instructions to the voter to fit in all the parties contesting the regional vote. That said, people don't read instructions, even the ones developed after 2007 and subject to extensive user testing. I unfortunately have to include some relatives among them. What would be helpful to understand the extent of the problem, particularly in local government elections, would be changing the categories for rejected ballot papers so they are more specific to the problems being experienced now, such as multiple first preferences. I've never really understood why 'void' and 'blank' were in the same category together as the are separate issues. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 5, 2023 21:39:22 GMT
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Oct 5, 2023 21:41:18 GMT
If the BBC Politics feed is correct, we are in for a long wait "Good evening and welcome to our live coverage of the crucial Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. The polls are just about to close and now all eyes are focused on the result, which we expect about 1pm." As others have said, South Lanarkshire has made a name for itself in declaring the first results at elections going back to Hamilton South returning the first ever MSP in 1999. I know the previous Deputy RO and she was excellent and with decades of experience but retired a couple of years ago. I'm sure she left a good team behind her and we'll see how efficient they are. 1am seems a bit long to wait for a declaration, depending on the turnout. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 5, 2023 21:46:27 GMT
I've never really understood why 'void' and 'blank' were in the same category together as the are separate issues. Probably because they both have the same effect - the ballot paper does not carry a clear statement of voting intention as opposed to too many statements, lacking the official mark or giving the voter's identity away. Whether the lack of clear statement is down to being unmarked, having a message written on it or not having a clear cross makes no difference to the outcome. Also not having a specific category for messages helps discourage organised spoil campaigns. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 5, 2023 21:49:04 GMT
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 5, 2023 21:51:21 GMT
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Oct 5, 2023 21:53:06 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,675
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 5, 2023 21:53:26 GMT
Just watching David Linden on the TV - he is claiming that Labour look likely to win because they are attracting Tory votes, and is scathing about this. Labour can't win without SNP-Labour switchers and his arrogant remarks won't go down well. Self-reflection is needed if the SNP lose, note blaming the voters.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 5, 2023 21:57:11 GMT
Ah, I didn't see the kind of account that had been written from. Apologies. |
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