Rutherglen & Hamilton West

[borisminor]

Oct 1, 2023 18:20:13 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 1, 2023 17:37:26 GMT borisminor said:

Airdrie and Shotts 2021 was when Labour was at its lowest in the polls, a Nationalist gain always seemed likely. It's not a shock like other SNP by-election results. I think polling this Parliament can be seen from a pre- and post-Batley and Spen perspective. Labour's performance improved after that, even when they were behind in the polls.

Edit - the swing the week before in the corresponding Scottish Parliament constituency was only a 3.1% SNP-Lab swing.

It was an SNP hold

Thanks edited - had a brain fade.

[graham]

Failing to take the seat would be a serious setback for Starmer.

[ntyuk1707]

Oct 1, 2023 4:37:50 GMT @weld said:

Given how many expect a Labour win, not taking back Airdrie & Shotts in 2021 was poor form from Labour. The SNP barely kept that in 2017.

Umm what?

The Airdrie & Shotts by-election took place one week after the Scottish Parliamentary election in 2021 where the SNP took 51% in Airdrie & Shotts to Labour's 33%.

In the by-election, the SNP were down 5 points to 46% and Labour were up 5% to 38% compared to the election result one week prior. Obviously there are some slight caveats as the Westminster boundary is slightly better for Labour and worse for the SNP than the Scottish Parliamentary seat, but it was nonetheless a good result for Labour within the context of them only holding one constituency at Westminster and two at Holyrood in Scotland and being significantly further behind in Scottish opinion polls, third, behind the Conservatives.

[jimboo2017]

Oct 1, 2023 4:37:50 GMT @weld said:

Given how many expect a Labour win, not taking back Airdrie & Shotts in 2021 was poor form from Labour. The SNP barely kept that in 2017.

historic divisions dating back to Monklands by election

[Pete Whitehead]

Literally nobody was expecting a Labour gain at the Airdrie & Shotts by-election vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15266/airdrie-shotts
I actually did put a small bet on a Labour victory, but only because I'm always tempted by long odds - the fact that the odds were long enough to tempt me speaks for itself..

[jimboo2017]

Oct 2, 2023 8:54:33 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Literally nobody was expecting a Labour gain at the Airdrie & Shotts by-election vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15266/airdrie-shotts
I actually did put a small bet on a Labour victory, but only because I'm always tempted by long odds - the fact that the odds were long enough to tempt me speaks for itself..

Did you get the 10/1 on Labour to win Glenrothes by election, ended up 6/4  (2008)

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 2, 2023 8:58:04 GMT jimboo2017 said:

Oct 2, 2023 8:54:33 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Literally nobody was expecting a Labour gain at the Airdrie & Shotts by-election vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15266/airdrie-shotts
I actually did put a small bet on a Labour victory, but only because I'm always tempted by long odds - the fact that the odds were long enough to tempt me speaks for itself..

Did you get the 10/1 on Labour to win Glenrothes by election, ended up 6/4  (2008)

No I didn't bet on that. I was sure that was going to be a SNP gain

[The Bishop]

Oct 1, 2023 17:37:26 GMT borisminor said:

Airdrie and Shotts 2021 was when Labour was at its lowest in the polls, a Nationalist hold always seemed likely. It's not a shock like other SNP by-election results. I think polling this Parliament can be seen from a pre- and post-Batley and Spen perspective. Labour's performance improved after that, even when they were behind in the polls.

Edit - the swing the week before in the corresponding Scottish Parliament constituency was only a 3.1% SNP-Lab swing.

This can also be seen in local byelections - from the middle of 2021 there is a definite falling off in Tory performance. Even though they stayed ahead in the polls until late that year, not the first time "real votes" have served as a leading indicator in this respect.

[timrollpickering]

Sept 30, 2023 21:57:26 GMT johnloony said:

Sept 30, 2023 20:22:58 GMT peterl said:

All I can say is that I've personally stood both with and without middle names and it's never been challenged.

Case law is that the R.O. has to accept the name (and other details) as given on the face of the paper, as stated by the candidate / agent. There was a case earlier (I think somewhere in Kent in the 1970s) in which a R.O. refused to accept a nomination paper because he insisted on arguing the toss about whether a double-barrel name should have a hyphen in it or not - the outcome of the case was that the R.O. / Council Chief Executive was sacked.

The difference is when people put their full name on and then (try to) use "commonly known as" to tidy away middle names. Some ROs refuse to accept this for no good reason. That's different from the RO doing their own research into the particulars on the paper.

[Clark]

Anyone know if this count is being done electronically so we get the polling district data?

I suspect a lot of the strong Liberal vote in middle class Burnside area of Rutherglen will go to Labour as well as some of the better off areas in the east side of Hamilton.
Labour best natural area appears to be Blantyre.  I'll go for a Labour win with just under 50% of the vote

[ntyuk1707]

Oct 5, 2023 7:28:03 GMT Clark said:

Anyone know if this count is being done electronically so we get the polling district data?

I suspect a lot of the strong Liberal vote in middle class Burnside area of Rutherglen will go to Labour as well as some of the better off areas in the east side of Hamilton.
Labour best natural area appears to be Blantyre.  I'll go for a Labour win with just under 50% of the vote

If you go off of Ballotboxscot's polling figures more than likely it will be a clean sweep for Labour apart from SNP wins in Rutherglen Central and Woodhead & Westerpark polling districts. The Lib Dems took around 12% of the vote across Rutherglen & Hamilton West at the local elections. They will be lucky to end up with half of that figure and their vote will probably be tactically squeezed towards Labour in Burnside. 

[stb12]

Oct 5, 2023 7:28:03 GMT Clark said:

Anyone know if this count is being done electronically so we get the polling district data?

I suspect a lot of the strong Liberal vote in middle class Burnside area of Rutherglen will go to Labour as well as some of the better off areas in the east side of Hamilton.
Labour best natural area appears to be Blantyre.  I'll go for a Labour win with just under 50% of the vote

Cambuslang as well albeit like with a lot of these areas the SNP have taken a chunk that natural vote the last decade or so

The Cambuslang West ward also elected a Tory in 2017 and their seat was taken last year by the Lib Dems

[Chris from Brum]

Andrew's Previews today covers this in detail.

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-parliamentary-by-election-and-two-local-by-elections-of-376b2460a47c

[johnloony]

Oct 5, 2023 7:28:03 GMT Clark said:

Anyone know if this count is being done electronically so we get the polling district data?

I suspect a lot of the strong Liberal vote in middle class Burnside area of Rutherglen will go to Labour as well as some of the better off areas in the east side of Hamilton.
Labour best natural area appears to be Blantyre.  I'll go for a Labour win with just under 50% of the vote

Why on Earth would they be doing the count electronically?
How on Earth could it even occur to anybody to think that it’s even a possibility that they would do so?

[LDCaerdydd]

Scotland has used electronic counting for elections in the past (quite famously in 2007 when many ROs abandoned it mid way through the night and reverted to counting by hand), I'm not aware that this has ever been done for a Westminster election/by-election though?

[Tony Otim]

Oct 5, 2023 8:46:02 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Scotland has used electronic counting for elections in the past (quite famously in 2007 when many ROs abandoned it mid way through the night and reverted to counting by hand), I'm not aware that this has ever been done for a Westminster election/by-election though?

In 2007 there were simultaneous local elections under STV and, iirc, they also had the Holyrood constituency and list votes on the same ballot paper (may be misremembering that last part) which would explain the electronic counting, which is still used in local elections. Absolutely no point in a Westminster election.

[LDCaerdydd]

I remember Scotland using electronic counting for their first STV election and the problems that occurred with having two parliamentary ballots on one sheet of paper.

These article suggests that electronic counting was used for the Scottish Parliament eletins in 2007: www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/jun/20/scotland.devolution and www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12849105

Ignore the bit about Excel, that's a different issue.

[Harry Hayfield]

Oct 5, 2023 10:20:31 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

I remember Scotland using electronic counting for their first STV election and the problems that occurred with having two parliamentary ballots on one sheet of paper.

These article suggests that electronic counting was used for the Scottish Parliament eletins in 2007: www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/jun/20/scotland.devolution and www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12849105

Ignore the bit about Excel, that's a different issue.

It was an absolute disaster, you only have to listen to some of the constituency declarations to hear that, Motherwell 800 rejected votes (nearly ten times bigger), Glasgow, Cathcart 1,100 rejected votes (around 20 times bigger)

[Harry Hayfield]

The Daily Express states today "SNP facing ‘seismic' defeat in crunch by-election as voters head to the polls" and yet in the actual article does not state this statement again but does note "They (Labour) ought to win relatively comfortably... being as far ahead in terms of the share of the vote as the SNP were in 2019. That would be a 10 percent swing with current national polls on average, although there is some variation pointing to about 11 points"

[LDCaerdydd]

Oct 5, 2023 11:57:05 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

The Daily Express states today "SNP facing ‘seismic' defeat in crunch by-election as voters head to the polls" and yet in the actual article does not state this statement again but does note "They (Labour) ought to win relatively comfortably... being as far ahead in terms of the share of the vote as the SNP were in 2019. That would be a 10 percent swing with current national polls on average, although there is some variation pointing to about 11 points"

I have no doubt that Labour will win and the SNP will loose, as for the Express’ analysis/spin of an election in which they hate both main players (but probably the SNP more by a whisker), you’ll forgive me if I choose to ignore them.