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Post by greenhert on May 23, 2023 18:20:58 GMT
Anyway......how about Meriden in 1997 had Iain Mills passed away a bit earlier? Would almost certainly have been a Labour gain (maybe on the same day as Wirral South) and they would surely have won it again at the GE and probably in 2001 too before it formed one of the tranche of Tory gains in 2005. The relevance to the present day is perhaps if actually having a Labour MP for a while might have cemented their hold in their wards around Chelmsley Wood, and thus avoided getting wiped out on Solihull MDC. Absolutely. In 1997 Labour only missed gaining Meriden by 502 votes, although the swing in their favour was only average. This also reminds me of the fact that the Liberal Democrats would probably have never won Newbury in 1997 had it not been for that by-election-and even then the odds were not in David Rendel's favour. |
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Post by greenhert on May 23, 2023 18:28:31 GMT
Edinburgh West, 1995. What if Lord James Douglas-Hamilton, as he was then, not disclaimed the title Earl of Selkirk (he now sits as a life peer, incidentally)? The Liberal Democrats would definitely have won a by-election then, and very decisively, and the 1992-97 Conservative government's demise could have been hastened.
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Post by johnloony on May 23, 2023 18:28:51 GMT
As explained in another thread the idea that the Liberal Democrats would have gained Manchester Gorton had the 2017 byelection gone ahead is completely delusional. So far off base as to raise questions about the sanity of people who seriously suggest it. In the Manchester Gorton by-election thread, a lot of the discussion was about whether the main challenge would be from the Green Party (which was in 2nd place in 2015) or the Lib Dems, but the betting odds were quoted as being Labour 1/10 and LD 8/1 (and Green 33/1). It’s not as if anybody was silly enough to think that the Lib Dems were actually going to win the by-election. A few days ago I predicted Lab 52% LD 28%, but now I'm beginning to think that the only thing that will rescue Labour from a defeat is the fact that the local elections will be happening on the same day. If it were a stand-alone by-election, LIb Dems would be swarming into Gorton from all over the country. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on May 23, 2023 20:42:36 GMT
It wouldn't have been all that interesting, I'm quite sure the Tories would have gained the seat in the circumstances which would have caused the by-election. I know what you mean, but it might have boosted the Conservatives a bit sooner (a little bit of “stupendous momentum” to phrase Gloy Plopwell of another place). It was a dismal Parliament in terms of both by-election opportunities and poll ratings. We had success in local elections and in the Euro elections but in terms of opinion polls, a few weeks following the fuel protests of September 2000 was our lot in this period. There was also the Scottish Parliament Ayr by-election in 2000 that the Tories gained pretty comfortably from Labour |
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 23, 2023 20:52:16 GMT
I know what you mean, but it might have boosted the Conservatives a bit sooner (a little bit of “stupendous momentum” to phrase Gloy Plopwell of another place). It was a dismal Parliament in terms of both by-election opportunities and poll ratings. We had success in local elections and in the Euro elections but in terms of opinion polls, a few weeks following the fuel protests of September 2000 was our lot in this period. There was also the Scottish Parliament Ayr by-election in 2000 that the Tories gained pretty comfortably from Labour I think in Explaining Labour's Second Landslide they even mention the Tory vote barely rose in Ayr,more to do with Labour slumping in all directions |
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Post by swanarcadian on May 24, 2023 8:10:38 GMT
Blyth Valley 1983-1987?
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 24, 2023 10:38:07 GMT
I know what you mean, but it might have boosted the Conservatives a bit sooner (a little bit of “stupendous momentum” to phrase Gloy Plopwell of another place). It was a dismal Parliament in terms of both by-election opportunities and poll ratings. We had success in local elections and in the Euro elections but in terms of opinion polls, a few weeks following the fuel protests of September 2000 was our lot in this period. There was also the Scottish Parliament Ayr by-election in 2000 that the Tories gained pretty comfortably from Labour ISTR that Labour's standard bearer there may have been one for the current "worst byelection candidates" thread. |
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Post by swanarcadian on May 24, 2023 11:14:57 GMT
Cardiff North West, 1983. Michael Roberts died at the dispatch box almost 4 months before the GE.
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wysall
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Post by wysall on May 24, 2023 17:15:59 GMT
I'm not sure whether Rosemary Brownlow would have been kept as the Alliance candidate had a by-election happened, but she's moved considerably to the right since her days in the SDP. I assume the Lib Dems would have lost it anyway in 1997 though. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 24, 2023 21:13:43 GMT
Cardiff North West, 1983. Michael Roberts died at the dispatch box almost 4 months before the GE. Goodness me, I did not know that. (Source: Hansard, February 10th 1983) The hon. Member for Neath (Mr. Coleman) and the right hon. Member for Rhondda (Mr. Jones) both referred to the television programme which suggested that 40 per cent. of WDA factory space was vacant. I hope that I can shed some light on this matter if they will bear with me while I explain the correct figures. The WDA now has about 3 million sq ft of factory space available for letting. This does not, of course, include factories which are empty but which have already been leased or which have been reserved for new tenants. The figure represents the space which the WDA is now able to offer for occupation by prospective new tenants. Hon. Members will agree that this is reasonable; the 3 million sq ft of space has to be measured against the total WDA factory stock of about 20 million sq ft, or 15 per cent. —the percentage which my right hon. Friend 1231mentioned in the House on Monday. My right hon. Friend also mentioned the amount of factory space built by the WDA since it came into being—the very commendable figure of 8 million sq ft. The hon. Member for Neath referred to his desire to see Japanese industry coining into Wales in particular. I wonder whether the hon. Member for Newport (Mr. Hughes) will explain how much of that industry he expects to see coming into Wales with all the inducements that he and some of his hon. Friends might offer if Britain, including Wales, is outside the Common Market. If he does not wish to give that explanation, perhaps the hon. Gentleman— Sitting suspended Upon resuming Resolved, That this House do now adjourn. —[Mr. David Hunt.] (February 11th 1983) I regret to have to inform the House of the death of Michael Hilary Arthur Roberts, esquire, Member for Cardiff, North-West, and I desire, on behalf of the House, to express our sense of the loss we have sustained and our sympathy with the relatives of the honourable Member. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 24, 2023 21:35:50 GMT
Interesting side thought. If the AMs/MSPs elected in 1999 had to give up their Westminster seats what seats would have changed hands/become marginal.
Possible Welsh seats up in the Summer of ‘99 after what was perceived to have been a poor election for Labour and a very good election for Plaid were:
Caerphilly
Cardiff South and Penarth
Cardiff West
Ceredigion (brought forward from Feb 2000)
Conwy
Wrexham
Ynys Mon
Could Caerphilly have gone Plaid? (Only to flip back in 2001)
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Post by johnloony on May 24, 2023 22:03:10 GMT
Cardiff North West, 1983. Michael Roberts died at the dispatch box almost 4 months before the GE. Goodness me, I did not know that. (Source: Hansard, February 10th 1983) The hon. Member for Neath (Mr. Coleman) and the right hon. Member for Rhondda (Mr. Jones) both referred to the television programme which suggested that 40 per cent. of WDA factory space was vacant. I hope that I can shed some light on this matter if they will bear with me while I explain the correct figures. … … If he does not wish to give that explanation, perhaps the hon. Gentleman— Sitting suspended Upon resuming Resolved, That this House do now adjourn. —[Mr. David Hunt.] (February 11th 1983) I regret to have to inform the House of the death of Michael Hilary Arthur Roberts, esquire, Member for Cardiff, North-West, and I desire, on behalf of the House, to express our sense of the loss we have sustained and our sympathy with the relatives of the honourable Member. I knew that an MP died in such a manner but I hadn’t realised it was as recent as 1983. I thought it was perhaps in the 1970s or 1960s. |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on May 24, 2023 23:03:43 GMT
Is it still illegal to die in Parliament?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 24, 2023 23:11:51 GMT
No. Because it has never been illegal to die in Parliament.
This is one of those silly myths that are put about. There is apparently a courtesy that no commoner is ever certified as dying in a Royal Palace, but it simply means that if anyone does, the death certificate will say they died on arrival at hospital instead. This is a minor legal fiction. Obviously it cannot be illegal to do something that you don't actually have control over.
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Post by johnloony on May 24, 2023 23:49:57 GMT
…Obviously it cannot be illegal to do something that you don't actually have control over. Theoretically, it can be, if Parliament enacts it thus. e.g. it was illegal to be gay (not merely to do gay things) in the armed forces until the 1980s. Parliament could, if it wanted, pass a law criminalising being over 6 feet tall. |
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Post by swanarcadian on May 25, 2023 6:32:35 GMT
I believe John Major was sitting next to Michael Roberts when he died.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on May 25, 2023 9:11:24 GMT
I believe John Major was sitting next to Michael Roberts when he died. That must have caused distress to Mr Roberts. Did he stand up and advise the Speaker. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on May 25, 2023 18:15:12 GMT
Didn't Ronald Bell also die in the Chamber? Which caused the Beaconsfield by election, Tony Blair's first election
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 25, 2023 19:07:21 GMT
Didn't Ronald Bell also die in the Chamber? Which caused the Beaconsfield by election, Tony Blair's first election There’s an unsourced comment on his wiki page saying he died of a heart attack in his Commons office. |
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Post by johnloony on May 25, 2023 23:19:41 GMT
Didn't Ronald Bell also die in the Chamber? Which caused the Beaconsfield by election, Tony Blair's first election There’s an unsourced comment on his wiki page saying he died of a heart attack in his Commons office. When Stephen Milligan died in 1994, the rumour-mill of Chinese whispers went from “he was found dead at his home” to “he was found dead in the House” (i.e. in the actual Chamber of the House of Commons). |
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