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Post by greenhert on May 22, 2023 22:05:39 GMT
Some (parliamentary) by-elections that are often speculated about or could have happened do not occur for one reason or another.
For example, what impact could these by-elections had if they had ever occurred?
1. Worcestershire South by-election, 1974
2. Manchester Gorton by-election, 2017
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 22, 2023 22:07:34 GMT
Gravesend 1955.
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on May 22, 2023 22:52:24 GMT
Sheffield Hallam, Lib Dems likely to have gained then?
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Post by mattbewilson on May 22, 2023 23:11:54 GMT
Sheffield Hallam, Lib Dems likely to have gained then? I did a bit of campaigning in Hallam in the Spring/Summer of 2019 anticipating a by election before the General Election was called. I think I wrote about a bit of it here. Looking back things later 2019 looked better than early that year. The trees stuff was still hurting. By Summer though Olivia was well known and understood the constituency really well. The CLP felt very well organised campaign wise at the time too |
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Post by johnloony on May 22, 2023 23:43:38 GMT
Some (parliamentary) by-elections that are often speculated about or could have happened do not occur for one reason or another. For example, what impact could these by-elections had if they had ever occurred? 1. Worcestershire South by-election, 1974 2. Manchester Gorton by-election, 2017 Nothing significant in either case. George Galloway might have got a few more % of the votes in the latter if it had been a by-election rather than a general election. |
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Post by johnloony on May 22, 2023 23:44:55 GMT
Not much different from the result of the general election which gazumped the by-election. Acland split the Labour vote and let in the Conservative. |
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Post by johnloony on May 22, 2023 23:52:53 GMT
I’m trying to think of others which might have happened. Strangford 2010: if the scandal involving Iris Robinson had not happened so close to a general election, and if a by-election had happened, it might have been more damaging to Peter Robinson and he might have had to resign his seat too.
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Post by owainsutton on May 23, 2023 5:41:54 GMT
Some (parliamentary) by-elections that are often speculated about or could have happened do not occur for one reason or another. For example, what impact could these by-elections had if they had ever occurred? 1. Worcestershire South by-election, 1974 2. Manchester Gorton by-election, 2017 Nothing significant in either case. George Galloway might have got a few more % of the votes in the latter if it had been a by-election rather than a general election. GG was an irrelevance, he had no traction in a location that sees his exploitation of divisions for what it is. A Lib Dem gain was much more likely, given how much effort they were making. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on May 23, 2023 6:35:39 GMT
Sheffield Hallam, Lib Dems likely to have gained then? I did a bit of campaigning in Hallam in the Spring/Summer of 2019 anticipating a by election before the General Election was called. I think I wrote about a bit of it here. Looking back things later 2019 looked better than early that year. The trees stuff was still hurting. By Summer though Olivia was well known and understood the constituency really well. The CLP felt very well organised campaign wise at the time too It was, and I think still is actually, in spite of this year's disappointing council results. However, you only won by 712 in the General Election (not exactly a bad result, given that Labour had never won the seat before 2017 and the MP elected then had been a disaster) and I think that a by-election would have been a better scenario for the Lib Dems. So I think the Lib Dems would have won, and that the boost from that would have made the difference in the General Election as well. |
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Post by mattbewilson on May 23, 2023 8:15:52 GMT
I did a bit of campaigning in Hallam in the Spring/Summer of 2019 anticipating a by election before the General Election was called. I think I wrote about a bit of it here. Looking back things later 2019 looked better than early that year. The trees stuff was still hurting. By Summer though Olivia was well known and understood the constituency really well. The CLP felt very well organised campaign wise at the time too It was, and I think still is actually, in spite of this year's disappointing council results. However, you only won by 712 in the General Election (not exactly a bad result, given that Labour had never won the seat before 2017 and the MP elected then had been a disaster) and I think that a by-election would have been a better scenario for the Lib Dems. So I think the Lib Dems would have won, and that the boost from that would have made the difference in the General Election as well. I think when I wrote a post here in Summer of 2019 after a door knock in Greystones that day I had said based on the response that the Lib Dems would do better in a general election. I think that was based on questions we asked because as well voter ID we were asking about a general election. I remember speaking to lots of don't knows some had voted lib dem 2015, labour in 2017 and Green in the locals and European election. Some of them were leaning green if there was a by election but if there was a general said they might vote Lib Dem |
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Post by batman on May 23, 2023 8:24:20 GMT
Nothing significant in either case. George Galloway might have got a few more % of the votes in the latter if it had been a by-election rather than a general election. GG was an irrelevance, he had no traction in a location that sees his exploitation of divisions for what it is. A Lib Dem gain was much more likely, given how much effort they were making. I don't entirely agree. The LDs had not recovered sufficiently from their coalition-related mauling to make a serious play for Manchester Gorton where they had lost all their once-proliferating councillors. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2023 8:36:13 GMT
As explained in another thread the idea that the Liberal Democrats would have gained Manchester Gorton had the 2017 byelection gone ahead is completely delusional. So far off base as to raise questions about the sanity of people who seriously suggest it.
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Post by owainsutton on May 23, 2023 9:28:30 GMT
Labour being delightful, as always, I see.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2023 9:39:04 GMT
Labour being delightful, as always, I see. I'm happy to own this as a personal comment. If you think the Lib Dems were going to win the Manchester Gorton byelection-that-wasn't in 2017, you're completely nuts, barking, off your rocker, deluded, crazy, insane and mad. There now. |
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2023 9:48:27 GMT
Labour being delightful, as always, I see. I'm happy to own this as a personal comment. If you think the Lib Dems were going to win the Manchester Gorton byelection-that-wasn't in 2017, you're completely nuts, barking, off your rocker, deluded, crazy, insane and mad. There now. I don't think that's particularly helpful is it?
Why not just say they're wrong and leave it at that?
These discussions are always completely pointless anyway as you can't prove something that didn't happen. Or disprove it for that matter.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,380
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Post by stb12 on May 23, 2023 9:52:13 GMT
Broken record maybe but in with another reminder that there’s no reason to not keep things civil even in disagreement
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2023 9:53:02 GMT
It's a perfectly civil comment.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 23, 2023 9:55:13 GMT
And in any case, when I raised it before, where were the worked through explanations of why it was actually winnable? Where was the explanation for how a seat where Labour was massively miles ahead of the Lib Dems in actual elections that actually happened in May and June 2017 could even possibly have elected a Lib Dem MP?
Nowhere at all. One should not be deterred from pointing out when people are deluding themselves.
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2023 10:01:01 GMT
It's a perfectly civil comment. No it isn't. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 23, 2023 10:10:50 GMT
Anyway......how about Meriden in 1997 had Iain Mills passed away a bit earlier?
Would almost certainly have been a Labour gain (maybe on the same day as Wirral South) and they would surely have won it again at the GE and probably in 2001 too before it formed one of the tranche of Tory gains in 2005. The relevance to the present day is perhaps if actually having a Labour MP for a while might have cemented their hold in their wards around Chelmsley Wood, and thus avoided getting wiped out on Solihull MDC.
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