pl
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Post by pl on Apr 29, 2023 8:30:07 GMT
Perhaps get an actuary to look at it in detail but here's my back of an envelope calculation. There were about 44,000 deaths in England and Wales during April 2019 (pre-pandemic year taken for comparison). The total population was 59.4m. So there was a one in 1,347 chance of anyone in England and Wales dying in any month. With about 25,000 candidates, that means you would expect 18.5 of them to die in the approx. one month between close of nominations and the poll if they demographically matched the UK population. But even given that many of those who die are already ill, and they would not be likely to stand even as paper candidates, the six deaths we have had so far doesn't seem an unusually large number of deaths. Many thanks Davıd Boothroyd Excellent numbers. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 29, 2023 11:31:19 GMT
But even given that many of those who die are already ill, and they would not be likely to stand even as paper candidates, the six deaths we have had so far doesn't seem an unusually large number of deaths. And of course local election candidates tend to be older, which if anything skews things the other way. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2023 12:44:31 GMT
Although political activists often tend to be more middle class than average, which also comes with higher life expectancy
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 29, 2023 15:00:55 GMT
Although political activists often tend to be more middle class than average, which also comes with higher life experience I think you mean expectation. Many middle class people are rather short on experience. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2023 18:59:38 GMT
Although political activists often tend to be more middle class than average, which also comes with higher life experience I think you mean expectation. Many middle class people are rather short on experience. Probably autocockup |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2023 19:00:41 GMT
Or possibly I just haven't broken my new phone's autocorrect in properly yet
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 30, 2023 6:42:32 GMT
Or possibly I just haven't broken my new phone's autocorrect in properly yet Autocorrect is an invention of the devil, and should always be immediately turned off. |
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 30, 2023 11:33:14 GMT
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Post by greatkingrat on Apr 30, 2023 11:45:34 GMT
Does the returning officer have the authority to change the polling day in the middle of the process? Should they start again from scratch and reopen nominations? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 30, 2023 12:21:10 GMT
I presume the answer is yes unless either the Cabinet Office take action or else a post poll election petition results in a ruling otherwise.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Apr 30, 2023 12:23:53 GMT
I presume the answer is yes unless either the Cabinet Office take action or else a post poll election petition results in a ruling otherwise. Under normal circumstances (outside of covid tripe), pretty sure the Cabinet Office doesn't have the power to change the date of a local by election. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Apr 30, 2023 12:27:34 GMT
ISTR the proposed Saturday poll in Doncaster in 1999 saw the council back down when the Home Office (with the function since transferred) expressed opposition though I don't think it ever reached a formal exercise of powers stage. Who if anyone can overrule on this?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 30, 2023 12:32:34 GMT
There is no explicit provision in law to change the date of poll after a notice of election is issued (save when a candidate dies and the whole thing is postponed). But in practice, where the RO has made a mistake and named a polling day which was not lawful, and the date is moved to the next date which would have been lawful, I doubt that there will be a problem.
Ultimately the decision could only be made by an election petition challenging the result on the catch-all basis of "not conducted substantially according to the law".
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 30, 2023 12:42:09 GMT
There was a case in 2017 in South Derbyshire where the RO initially named a by-election date for 4th May (county council election day) but published the Notice of Election a day too late for that to be valid. Once the error was realised the poll was rearranged for 11th May.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 30, 2023 13:49:14 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Apr 30, 2023 14:28:45 GMT
There is no explicit provision in law to change the date of poll after a notice of election is issued (save when a candidate dies and the whole thing is postponed). But in practice, where the RO has made a mistake and named a polling day which was not lawful, and the date is moved to the next date which would have been lawful, I doubt that there will be a problem. It could be argued (thinking of the Supreme Court's judgment on the proroguing of Parliament) that the Returning Officer did not in fact publish a notice of election ("it is as if he published a blank piece of paper") because anything which was stated in that notice was incorrect and therefore illegal / unlawful / irrelevant / unenforceable / fictitious / hysterical (edit as necessary). |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 30, 2023 14:34:01 GMT
4 days ago I emailed to Scilly council to ask why they were holding a by-election contrary to the Local Elections (Principal Areas) (England and Wales) Rules 2006, Schedule 2 (1) (a), but (a) I have not received a reply to that email, and (b) I sent the email to the general "enquiries (at) scilly.gov.uk" email address (which was the first contact I found on their website) rather than the specific "elections (at) scilly.gov.uk". No doubt they have had hundreds of millions of similar emails and telephone calls from people all over the world asking the same question. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 30, 2023 14:36:50 GMT
4 days ago I emailed to Scilly council to ask why they were holding a by-election contrary to the Local Elections (Principal Areas) (England and Wales) Rules 2006, Schedule 2 (1) (a), but (a) I have not received a reply to that email, and (b) I sent the email to the general "enquiries (at) scilly.gov.uk" email address (which was the first contact I found on their website) rather than the specific "elections (at) scilly.gov.uk". No doubt they have had hundreds of millions of similar emails and telephone calls from people all over the world asking the same question. I think you can claim credit for this then. |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 30, 2023 15:04:30 GMT
4 days ago I emailed to Scilly council to ask why they were holding a by-election contrary to the Local Elections (Principal Areas) (England and Wales) Rules 2006, Schedule 2 (1) (a), but (a) I have not received a reply to that email, and (b) I sent the email to the general "enquiries (at) scilly.gov.uk" email address (which was the first contact I found on their website) rather than the specific "elections (at) scilly.gov.uk". No doubt they have had hundreds of millions of similar emails and telephone calls from people all over the world asking the same question. I think you can claim credit for this then. If it is true that I was the only one to tell them, then it is odd that they haven't replied to my email specifically. Perhaps I'll get a reply on Monday morning. I didn't even bother to delve into their website far enough to find a specific contact for the Elections department; I simply used the general enquiries email. To be honest, I was expecting them to (a) ignore my email and not change anything, or (b) reply by explaining the Scilly is not a "Principal Area". |
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Post by greatkingrat on Apr 30, 2023 15:11:04 GMT
I think you can claim credit for this then. If it is true that I was the only one to tell them, then it is odd that they haven't replied to my email specifically. Perhaps I'll get a reply on Monday morning. I didn't even bother to delve into their website far enough to find a specific contact for the Elections department; I simply used the general enquiries email. To be honest, I was expecting them to (a) ignore my email and not change anything, or (b) reply by explaining the Scilly is not a "Principal Area". I doubt Scilly has an "Elections department" anyway! |
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