Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
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Post by Rural Radical on Mar 10, 2023 12:49:33 GMT
Is this In Edinburgh West? |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,732
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 10, 2023 13:11:29 GMT
Is this In Edinburgh West? Mostly, according to Andrew's Previews, and it's split between Edinburgh Western and Edinburgh Central at Holyrood. |
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Post by batman on Mar 10, 2023 13:17:13 GMT
Labour's win in 1929 in Edinburgh West is pretty counter-intuitive (and unique for the foreseeable future) and perhaps some of the posher areas were in other constituencies at that time? It was certainly made possible by an almost exact split in the anti-Labour vote between the Tories & the Liberals.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 10, 2023 13:18:33 GMT
Is this in Edinburgh West? Yes, nearly all of it. There is a small piece in Edinburgh North & Leith. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 10, 2023 13:47:37 GMT
Labour's win in 1929 in Edinburgh West is pretty counter-intuitive (and unique for the foreseeable future) and perhaps some of the posher areas were in other constituencies at that time? It was certainly made possible by an almost exact split in the anti-Labour vote between the Tories & the Liberals. Here's one I prepared earlier. Black line - Edinburgh West in 1929 Purple line - Edinburgh West at the moment  |
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Post by batman on Mar 10, 2023 15:10:52 GMT
so, unrecognisable as the same seat. Would the area to the west have been in the Linlithgow seat then? or perhaps some of it North Midlothian which was a pretty safe Tory seat?
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Mar 10, 2023 15:16:18 GMT
so, unrecognisable as the same seat. Would the area to the west have been in the Linlithgow seat then? or perhaps some of it North Midlothian which was a pretty safe Tory seat? Most of it was in North Midlothian, but South Queensferry and Kirkliston were in Linlithgow. |
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Post by batman on Mar 10, 2023 15:35:29 GMT
thanks, that makes perfect sense.
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 10, 2023 16:24:03 GMT
a bit surprising- I thought the Greens should have been in a position to consolidate their position and squeeze the LDs, but that sounds like a very good Lib Dem night altogether. I only really looked at the map tonight when I read Andrew's previews and realised how much this ward is the heart of Tottenham, rather than being the Hale. And realising I did once live in this ward. It goes without saying that you wouldn't recognize the area - bloody hell, I don't recognize the area from what it was even five years ago. There is what amounts to a whole new (i'm going to be naughty) village going up there.
I suppose it depends on what you mean by the 'heart' of Tottenham. I wouldn't describe it that way at the moment but all the new residents are going to change the centre of gravity in the area quite significantly.
With the exception of last year's council elections, where they actually targetted pretty much for the first time ever, Haringey Greens are suprisingly useless, so I suspect the Lib Dems campaigned and the Greens probably didn't.
My knowledge of Tottenham is mostly late50s/early sixties. We went back for a nostalgic walk around as part of our golden wedding celebrations but that I realise was itself now over 11 years ago. "My"Tottenham was essentially the High Street from Tottenham Green and the High Cross to Bruce Grove and on to the Spurs Ground and that was what I meant by the heart of Tottenham -much of it forms the western boundary of this ward. I know the Lea valley was a very precious area to Eileen as a child/ teenager and she loved that old world of marshes and river and the locks and the working ponies, but I barely knew it in my brief experience of Tottenham. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 10, 2023 17:42:54 GMT
Their vote held up decently in Hounslow, considering the LibDem performance from a standing start. Although one should add the caveat that the LIb Dem score should be decreased a bit and everyone else's increased a bit to account for the incorrect vote share changes that James' method produces in Scottish contests. I make it that this week in Edinburgh he would have the LIb Dems as +22.8% rather than +6.2%; the SNP -11.6, rather than -5.4; Con -11.7 rather than -6.3; Labour -3.4 rather than -0.9; Green -4.2 rather -1.8 ... |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 10, 2023 18:33:13 GMT
It's really a nothing result - the Lib Dems scooped up the collapsing Tory/Unionist vote and it's a free for all for the also rans behind the SNP. Would that sort of result deliver all 3 seats if repeated at normal elections? (I realise not likely in practice) I've looked at the preference profile and yes, that's a clean sweep for the Lib Dems in a 3-seat election. The two-party preferred vote is LD 5761 SNP 1506, and the 3-seat quota is 2043. On the worst possible candidate split that's LD1 2043 LD2 2043 LD3 1675 SNP 1506 |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 10, 2023 19:05:40 GMT
It's a good result for the Lib Dems from scratch, but the indies have nevertheless made charlies of themselves. They often do. They often do. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Mar 10, 2023 23:16:08 GMT
so, unrecognisable as the same seat. Would the area to the west have been in the Linlithgow seat then? or perhaps some of it North Midlothian which was a pretty safe Tory seat? Through, North Midlothian voted Labour in 1923 and a by-election in 1929. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Mar 11, 2023 16:33:20 GMT
Would that sort of result deliver all 3 seats if repeated at normal elections? (I realise not likely in practice) I've looked at the preference profile and yes, that's a clean sweep for the Lib Dems in a 3-seat election. The two-party preferred vote is LD 5761 SNP 1506, and the 3-seat quota is 2043. On the worst possible candidate split that's LD1 2043 LD2 2043 LD3 1675 SNP 1506 Surely the worst possible candidate split would have at least one candidate heavily over quota with a leaky surplus that doesn't all reach the third? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 11, 2023 16:58:41 GMT
Would that sort of result deliver all 3 seats if repeated at normal elections? (I realise not likely in practice) I've looked at the preference profile and yes, that's a clean sweep for the Lib Dems in a 3-seat election. The two-party preferred vote is LD 5761 SNP 1506, and the 3-seat quota is 2043. On the worst possible candidate split that's LD1 2043 LD2 2043 LD3 1675 SNP 1506 Damn PR giving 100% of the seats on 55% of the vote...... |
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Post by batman on Mar 11, 2023 17:13:44 GMT
so, unrecognisable as the same seat. Would the area to the west have been in the Linlithgow seat then? or perhaps some of it North Midlothian which was a pretty safe Tory seat? Through, North Midlothian voted Labour in 1923 and a by-election in 1929. "pretty" safe in that Labour didn't win it in 1945. In fact their performance in the Edinburgh area was relatively uninspiring that election, although Edinburgh North was gained. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Mar 11, 2023 17:20:11 GMT
Through, North Midlothian voted Labour in 1923 and a by-election in 1929. "pretty" safe in that Labour didn't win it in 1945. In fact their performance in the Edinburgh area was relatively uninspiring that election, although Edinburgh North was gained. However, the "Unionist" majority was lower than the Common Wealth vote (who was running the wife of one of the founders; said founder came very close to win it in a wartime by-election). |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 11, 2023 17:31:32 GMT
The social composition of a lot of constituencies changed significantly over the 1918-50 period as it was the period of the really huge suburban growth that created the shapes of most towns and cities as we know them now. North Midlothian is a good example: it was functionally an extra Edinburgh seat by 1945.
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
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Post by mrtoad on Mar 12, 2023 13:21:07 GMT
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Mar 15, 2023 6:23:29 GMT
The Labour candidate in the Murrayfield by-election is the son of well known Stuart historian Jane Ohlmeyer
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