Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 9, 2023 23:59:32 GMT
An easy Lib Dem victory is no surprise - I did wonder if they'd do it on 1st prefs, but ultimately predicted them just short, but they seem to have got their vote out very well. The interesting thing to see will be which other parties have crashed a bit, plus hopefully some comedy votes at the bottom - really hope the Libertarian beats the family party, but won't happen. Apparently SNP turnout collapsed in their areas - plus the obvs bad weather over last few days made the PV share of the final total higher than it would have been (PVs seemed to be very strong for LDs) Who'd have thought it - the party leaders tearing each other to shreds didn't motivate their supporters? I'm shocked... |
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Post by andrewp on Mar 10, 2023 0:03:01 GMT
It's a good result for the Lib Dems from scratch, but the indies have nevertheless made charlies of themselves. I think we’ve had that before where ‘Independent sources’ misinterpret how it’s going in a way that Con/ Lab/ LD/ Green sources normally don’t because those people are more experienced at viewing counts. |
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Post by olympian95 on Mar 10, 2023 0:11:24 GMT
Massive LD win
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Post by evergreenadam on Mar 10, 2023 0:13:37 GMT
An easy Lib Dem victory is no surprise - I did wonder if they'd do it on 1st prefs, but ultimately predicted them just short, but they seem to have got their vote out very well. The interesting thing to see will be which other parties have crashed a bit, plus hopefully some comedy votes at the bottom - really hope the Libertarian beats the family party, but won't happen. Apparently SNP turnout collapsed in their areas - plus the obvs bad weather over last few days made the PV share of the final total higher than it would have been (PVs seemed to be very strong for LDs) What sort of areas are strongest for the SNP? |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Mar 10, 2023 0:16:25 GMT
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Post by olympian95 on Mar 10, 2023 0:18:21 GMT
Lab hold in Tottenham Hale, LDs second
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 10, 2023 0:23:13 GMT
It's really a nothing result - the Lib Dems scooped up the collapsing Tory/Unionist vote and it's a free for all for the also rans behind the SNP. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 10, 2023 0:44:18 GMT
TOTTENHAM HALE:
ALLAO Amelia Christian Peoples Alliance 35
CHAN Emma Green Party 192
NEGUSSE GHEBREAWARIAT Miraf Independent 64
O'DONOVAN Sean Labour Party 818
TSANGARIDES Angelos Kyriacos Conservative and Unionist Party 81
WINDSOR Allen Liberal Democrats 203
Number of rejected papers: 7
Turnout: 1,400
Percentage turnout: 20%
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Post by michaelarden on Mar 10, 2023 0:46:05 GMT
And of course with STV/AV respecting an X is going to have a huge amount of unintended consequences... |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 10, 2023 0:54:34 GMT
Lab hold in Tottenham Hale, LDs second a bit surprising- I thought the Greens should have been in a position to consolidate their position and squeeze the LDs, but that sounds like a very good Lib Dem night altogether. I only really looked at the map tonight when I read Andrew's previews and realised how much this ward is the heart of Tottenham, rather than being the Hale. And realising I did once live in this ward. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 10, 2023 7:36:59 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +73
Lab +52
SNP -16
Con -22
Grn -25
Cons not at the bottom!
ASV
LDm +1.2
Lab +0.9
SNP -0.3
Con -0.4
Grn -0.4
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Post by andrewp on Mar 10, 2023 7:48:14 GMT
Tottenham Hale percentages and changes
Lab 58.8% (-3.5%)
LD 14.6% (+6)
Green 13.8% (-7.2)
Con 5.8% (-2.3)
Ind 4.6% (new)
CPA 2.5% (new)
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 10, 2023 8:01:57 GMT
It's a good result for the Lib Dems from scratch, but the indies have nevertheless made charlies of themselves. I think we’ve had that before where ‘Independent sources’ misinterpret how it’s going in a way that Con/ Lab/ LD/ Green sources normally don’t because those people are more experienced at viewing counts. Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the Indy assessment of the result was based on the campaigns rather than anything at the count. They saw a LD campaign on a different level to anybody else and assumed ,naively, that would be rewarded on the night. Of course the LDs do often need to campaign way beyond anyone else to win, but it usually takes more than a single campaign to break through. |
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Post by mattb on Mar 10, 2023 8:19:12 GMT
It's really a nothing result - the Lib Dems scooped up the collapsing Tory/Unionist vote and it's a free for all for the also rans behind the SNP. Would that sort of result deliver all 3 seats if repeated at normal elections? (I realise not likely in practice) |
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Post by arnieg on Mar 10, 2023 8:32:38 GMT
Its when you start voting XXY the trouble begins
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Mar 10, 2023 8:50:50 GMT
It's really a nothing result - the Lib Dems scooped up the collapsing Tory/Unionist vote and it's a free for all for the also rans behind the SNP. Would that sort of result deliver all 3 seats if repeated at normal elections? (I realise not likely in practice) Possibly, but it would depend on the balancing. I think three Lib Dem candidates all around 18 to 19% would all get elected, but if the third Lib Dem candidate were well behind the other two then the SNP could beat them to the third seat. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 10, 2023 10:39:43 GMT
Lab hold in Tottenham Hale, LDs second a bit surprising- I thought the Greens should have been in a position to consolidate their position and squeeze the LDs, but that sounds like a very good Lib Dem night altogether. I only really looked at the map tonight when I read Andrew's previews and realised how much this ward is the heart of Tottenham, rather than being the Hale. And realising I did once live in this ward. It goes without saying that you wouldn't recognize the area - bloody hell, I don't recognize the area from what it was even five years ago. There is what amounts to a whole new (i'm going to be naughty) village going up there.
I suppose it depends on what you mean by the 'heart' of Tottenham. I wouldn't describe it that way at the moment but all the new residents are going to change the centre of gravity in the area quite significantly.
With the exception of last year's council elections, where they actually targetted pretty much for the first time ever, Haringey Greens are suprisingly useless, so I suspect the Lib Dems campaigned and the Greens probably didn't.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Mar 10, 2023 10:52:39 GMT
a bit surprising- I thought the Greens should have been in a position to consolidate their position and squeeze the LDs, but that sounds like a very good Lib Dem night altogether. I only really looked at the map tonight when I read Andrew's previews and realised how much this ward is the heart of Tottenham, rather than being the Hale. And realising I did once live in this ward. It goes without saying that you wouldn't recognize the area - bloody hell, I don't recognize the area from what it was even five years ago. There is what amounts to a whole new (i'm going to be naughty) village going up there.
I suppose it depends on what you mean by the 'heart' of Tottenham. I wouldn't describe it that way at the moment but all the new residents are going to change the centre of gravity in the area quite significantly.
With the exception of last year's council elections, where they actually targetted pretty much for the first time ever, Haringey Greens are suprisingly useless, so I suspect the Lib Dems campaigned and the Greens probably didn't.
I think the Greens actually did more than the Lib Dems, a little surprisingly. |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 10, 2023 10:56:11 GMT
It goes without saying that you wouldn't recognize the area - bloody hell, I don't recognize the area from what it was even five years ago. There is what amounts to a whole new (i'm going to be naughty) village going up there.
I suppose it depends on what you mean by the 'heart' of Tottenham. I wouldn't describe it that way at the moment but all the new residents are going to change the centre of gravity in the area quite significantly.
With the exception of last year's council elections, where they actually targetted pretty much for the first time ever, Haringey Greens are suprisingly useless, so I suspect the Lib Dems campaigned and the Greens probably didn't.
I think the Greens actually did more than the Lib Dems, a little surprisingly. Probably in the wrong ward then, knowing them. 
If they did the message really isn't getting through. The Lib Dems have struggled big time in the post Featherstone era.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 10, 2023 11:06:34 GMT
Their vote held up decently in Hounslow, considering the LibDem performance from a standing start. |
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