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Post by greenhert on Jan 31, 2023 22:55:05 GMT
Somerset has also been notable for Labour underperformances-but like in Cornwall, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats are almost entirely responsible for this. The same arguably goes for the non-Swindon parts of Wiltshire. It is surprising to note how close Labour came to winning Westbury (the precursor to SW Wiltshire) in the post-war period.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 31, 2023 23:42:14 GMT
Somerset has also been notable for Labour underperformances-but like in Cornwall, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats are almost entirely responsible for this. The same arguably goes for the non-Swindon parts of Wiltshire. It is surprising to note how close Labour came to winning Westbury (the precursor to SW Wiltshire) in the post-war period. Labour did manage to win Frome (the Somerset coalfield) in the mid-20th century. But Wiltshire is a good one - Labour was thought likely to win both byelections in Wiltshire which were held in the 1959-64 Parliament, but the Conservatives held them. Speaking of missed opportunities to win byelections, dare I mention Uxbridge in this context? Twice that has been Labour's for the taking in a byelection. |
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Post by batman on Jan 31, 2023 23:43:09 GMT
If one is extrapolating voting intentions based on socio-economic structure of the population and type of housing etc., then I suggest Belfast West. that seat was won by the Northern Ireland Labour Party in the 1945 general election. When Gerry Fitt was first elected there he was described as Republican Labour. I don't think it counts because the British Labour Party has made a conscious decision not to stand there or anywhere else in NI |
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Post by batman on Jan 31, 2023 23:46:50 GMT
Somerset has also been notable for Labour underperformances-but like in Cornwall, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats are almost entirely responsible for this. The same arguably goes for the non-Swindon parts of Wiltshire. It is surprising to note how close Labour came to winning Westbury (the precursor to SW Wiltshire) in the post-war period. Labour did manage to win Frome (the Somerset coalfield) in the mid-20th century. But Wiltshire is a good one - Labour was thought likely to win both byelections in Wiltshire which were held in the 1959-64 Parliament, but the Conservatives held them. Speaking of missed opportunities to win byelections, dare I mention Uxbridge in this context? Twice that has been Labour's for the taking in a byelection. Labour also won Taunton in the 1945 general election. The MP, Victor Collins, later became a Hackney MP. |
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Post by batman on Jan 31, 2023 23:47:52 GMT
Somerset has also been notable for Labour underperformances-but like in Cornwall, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats are almost entirely responsible for this. The same arguably goes for the non-Swindon parts of Wiltshire. It is surprising to note how close Labour came to winning Westbury (the precursor to SW Wiltshire) in the post-war period. Labour did manage to win Frome (the Somerset coalfield) in the mid-20th century. But Wiltshire is a good one - Labour was thought likely to win both byelections in Wiltshire which were held in the 1959-64 Parliament, but the Conservatives held them. Speaking of missed opportunities to win byelections, dare I mention Uxbridge in this context? Twice that has been Labour's for the taking in a byelection. Also, Uxbridge was never won by Labour in GLC elections so their underperformance there is still more noteworthy |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 1, 2023 1:07:31 GMT
Labour did manage to win Frome (the Somerset coalfield) in the mid-20th century. But Wiltshire is a good one - Labour was thought likely to win both byelections in Wiltshire which were held in the 1959-64 Parliament, but the Conservatives held them. Speaking of missed opportunities to win byelections, dare I mention Uxbridge in this context? Twice that has been Labour's for the taking in a byelection. Labour also won Taunton in the 1945 general election. The MP, Victor Collins, later became a Hackney MP. We're straying into the opposite topic there though, areas of Labour overperformance, however brief. As for Liberal/Liberal Democrat underperformance (as you asked for examples), post 1945, just about everywhere. On the specific topic, completely agree with Gosport, also add in there Havant, Eastleigh, Aldershot, Folkestone, Swindon just for a few. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Feb 1, 2023 4:45:15 GMT
Considerng the dominance they had over South Yorkshire for a long time could Sheffield Hallam fall into this category pre-2015?
No. Before the expansion on the Universities, Western Sheffield was always conservative with a small c, therefore didn't vote for (radical) Labour who ran the council. This is why it went Liberal Democrat not Labour when the Conservatives lost the voters due to their national government being perceived to have been shafting the city. The voters were still anti-Labour. Labour only got the seat due to good leg work, demographic change and Nick Clegg being very marmite in the constituency.
And, of course, Jared O'Mara being an absolutely top-drawer candidate that simply oozed quality, nous and general excellence from every pore. |
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Post by matureleft on Feb 1, 2023 6:21:41 GMT
Labour also won Taunton in the 1945 general election. The MP, Victor Collins, later became a Hackney MP. We're straying into the opposite topic there though, areas of Labour overperformance, however brief. As for Liberal/Liberal Democrat underperformance (as you asked for examples), post 1945, just about everywhere. On the specific topic, completely agree with Gosport, also add in there Havant, Eastleigh, Aldershot, Folkestone, Swindon just for a few. Your list is fair. I puzzled about Labour’s poor performance in Havant when I was young, as I did with Gosport. Leigh Park had a fierce reputation in those days (1960s-early 1970s) and the rest of the area wasn’t particularly affluent to my eye. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Feb 1, 2023 6:43:28 GMT
No. Before the expansion on the Universities, Western Sheffield was always conservative with a small c, therefore didn't vote for (radical) Labour who ran the council. This is why it went Liberal Democrat not Labour when the Conservatives lost the voters due to their national government being perceived to have been shafting the city. The voters were still anti-Labour. Labour only got the seat due to good leg work, demographic change and Nick Clegg being very marmite in the constituency.
And, of course, Jared O'Mara being an absolutely top-drawer candidate that simply oozed quality, nous and general excellence from every pore.
In an alternative dimension maybe, in reality no, he lucked in on the back of Oliver Coppards hard work.
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YL
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Post by YL on Feb 1, 2023 8:08:06 GMT
Considerng the dominance they had over South Yorkshire for a long time could Sheffield Hallam fall into this category pre-2015? No. Before the expansion on the Universities, Western Sheffield was always conservative with a small c, therefore didn't vote for (radical) Labour who ran the council. This is why it went Liberal Democrat not Labour when the Conservatives lost the voters due to their national government being perceived to have been shafting the city. The voters were still anti-Labour. Labour only got the seat due to good leg work, demographic change and Nick Clegg being very marmite in the constituency.
I think Labour could have won Sheffield Hallam in 1997 (and 2001) if the Lib Dems hadn't managed to position themselves as the tactical option, as happened in a couple of similar constituencies (Bristol W on its then boundaries, also Leeds NW to some extent). That comes down to a couple of things: the relative success of the tactical voting campaign in 1992, meaning their vote held up well then and that people were used to thinking of them as the tactical option, and the state of the Labour Party in Sheffield in the mid-1990s, which had nothing to do with the national situation. Before 1997 a constituency with the demographic profile of Sheffield Hallam was never going to vote Labour. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Feb 1, 2023 8:19:14 GMT
Somerset has also been notable for Labour underperformances-but like in Cornwall, the Liberals/Liberal Democrats are almost entirely responsible for this. The same arguably goes for the non-Swindon parts of Wiltshire. It is surprising to note how close Labour came to winning Westbury (the precursor to SW Wiltshire) in the post-war period. It's not that surprising if you know the demographics of the area - the main town of Trowbridge has traditionally been rather industrial, and Melksham is quite working class too. Had it been elsewhere in the country the (pre-1997) Westbury seat would have been reasonably marginal with Labour winning the two industrial towns, the Conservatives the rural areas and smaller towns, and the railway centre of Westbury itself probably being the key battleground. |
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Post by batman on Feb 1, 2023 9:23:15 GMT
Labour also won Taunton in the 1945 general election. The MP, Victor Collins, later became a Hackney MP. We're straying into the opposite topic there though, areas of Labour overperformance, however brief. As for Liberal/Liberal Democrat underperformance (as you asked for examples), post 1945, just about everywhere. On the specific topic, completely agree with Gosport, also add in there Havant, Eastleigh, Aldershot, Folkestone, Swindon just for a few. Swindon was a perpetually Labour seat (apart from a 1969 by-election) until 1983 though. And I'd argue that Labour distinctly overperformed in South Swindon from 1997 until the seat was lost in 2010, the party has done much less well in North Swindon despite holding the seat during that period. The others are all good examples for sure. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 1, 2023 9:27:06 GMT
We're straying into the opposite topic there though, areas of Labour overperformance, however brief. As for Liberal/Liberal Democrat underperformance (as you asked for examples), post 1945, just about everywhere. On the specific topic, completely agree with Gosport, also add in there Havant, Eastleigh, Aldershot, Folkestone, Swindon just for a few. Swindon was a perpetually Labour seat (apart from a 1969 by-election) until 1983 though. And I'd argue that Labour distinctly overperformed in South Swindon from 1997 until the seat was lost in 2010, the party has done much less well in North Swindon despite holding the seat during that period. The others are all good examples for sure. I’m always disappointed that the 1997-2005 MP for Swindon South didn’t double-barrel her surname on marriage. Drown-Child would be a great name for a politician. |
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Post by Clark on Feb 1, 2023 9:37:28 GMT
I think the reason Labour failed to gain the Uxbridge by-election in the Blair years despite riding high in the polls at the time, was because of candidate choice if I remember correctly - John Randall was a popular local man and Labour put forward a non local 'party machine' type candidate.
A flaw that dogged Tony Blair throughout his government years. Dennis Cannavan and Rhodri Morgan come to mind.
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Post by matureleft on Feb 1, 2023 10:04:13 GMT
I think the reason Labour failed to gain the Uxbridge by-election in the Blair years despite riding high in the polls at the time, was because of candidate choice as I remember correctly - John Randall was a popular local man and Labour put forward a non local 'party machine' type candidate. A flaw that dogged Tony Blair throughout his government years. Dennis Cannavan and Rhodri Morgan come to mind. Yup. He gradually learned but initially, and Uxbridge was right at the start, there was an assumption that normal stuff could be disregarded as he/the party was so popular, and that the local party could chew on that. The Labour candidate in the 1997 general election was local and pretty blameless, as I recall, but not a born-again Blairite. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 1, 2023 12:03:24 GMT
North Cornwall and North Devon are, IIRC, now the only two seats in the country where Labour have never finished second, despite both having significant deprivation. Labour did finish second in North Devon back in 1951-but that is the only time they have finished second in North Devon since its creation in 1950. North Cornwall is the only British seat where Labour have never finished in one of the top two spots. North Dorset also held this honour until 2017, still a bit hard to believe Labour got second there then despite the overall result of the election. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 1, 2023 12:09:07 GMT
Labour did finish second in North Devon back in 1951-but that is the only time they have finished second in North Devon since its creation in 1950. North Cornwall is the only British seat where Labour have never finished in one of the top two spots. North Dorset also held this honour until 2017, still a bit hard to believe Labour got second there then despite the overall result of the election. Note to Rishi Sunak - propose amendment to the new constituencies to include "North" in every constituency name. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Feb 1, 2023 12:37:48 GMT
I think the reason Labour failed to gain the Uxbridge by-election in the Blair years despite riding high in the polls at the time, was because of candidate choice as I remember correctly - John Randall was a popular local man and Labour put forward a non local 'party machine' type candidate. A flaw that dogged Tony Blair throughout his government years. Dennis Cannavan and Rhodri Morgan come to mind. Yup. He gradually learned but initially, and Uxbridge was right at the start, there was an assumption that normal stuff could be disregarded as he/the party was so popular, and that the local party could chew on that. The Labour candidate in the 1997 general election was local and pretty blameless, as I recall, but not a born-again Blairite. Sounds like he’ll have been taking the credit for your own election! |
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Post by Sandy on Feb 1, 2023 12:44:49 GMT
Inverness - only won twice at the height of Blair while winning Caithness & Sutherland, on paper far less fertile Labour territory for years with a popular candidate.
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Post by matureleft on Feb 1, 2023 13:19:34 GMT
Yup. He gradually learned but initially, and Uxbridge was right at the start, there was an assumption that normal stuff could be disregarded as he/the party was so popular, and that the local party could chew on that. The Labour candidate in the 1997 general election was local and pretty blameless, as I recall, but not a born-again Blairite. Sounds like he’ll have been taking the credit for your own election! The bit where this struck me was in the last week of the long 1997 campaign. A load of purple (I think - I'm a bit colour blind but they definitely weren't red!) posters arrived with Blair's face on them and we were asked to go round and get people to put those up instead of the standard stuff. Fantasy stuff in most constituencies where there weren't the foot soldiers for what was essentially a task of duplication - the little team had loads to do without that. But it suggested a presidential approach that I instinctively distrust. And this by-election compounded that (together with other unfortunate centralising initiatives in party and PLP matters). It wasn't a personal Blair victory although undoubtedly he contributed heavily to its scale. |
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