Where has Labour serially underperformed the most?

[batman]

I looked at the profile of the Banff & Buchan constituency, aware of the rather working-class social composition of at least some of the towns in it (especially Peterhead but I think Fraserburgh too - I get the feeling Turriff is better-off, I can't pretend to know the area at all & have only ever been to Aberdeenshire once, and have never been to Aberdeen or the above-mentioned towns at all). My question is, in which constituency, and/or its linear predecessor, has Labour historically & pretty much always underperformed the most? Suggestions welcome! It could even be a seat which has often been won by Labour or which is even currently Labour-held, if it's appropriate. Perhaps threads about other parties' underperformance might be of interest too?

[stb12]

Winchester?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Most Cornish constituencies.

New towns.

Boston and Skegness (after 1924).

[mattbewilson]

Its a ashame as St Albans under current boundaries but 60s/70s demographics would have been a labour seat but gentrification has made it impossible despite post 97 boundaries

[iain]

North Cornwall and North Devon are, IIRC, now the only two seats in the country where Labour have never finished second, despite both having significant deprivation.

[peterl]

Bournemouth, both East and West and at council level, is an area one would expect Labour to do better, as we have discussed before. Poole also. In both cases, vote splitting with the Lib Dems seems to be the problem.

[matureleft]

Gosport. Demographics (and what it looks like on the ground) suggest a strong Labour base but results indicate otherwise.

[bsjmcr]

Jan 31, 2023 19:21:25 GMT peterl said:

Bournemouth, both East and West and at council level, is an area one would expect Labour to do better, as we have discussed before. Poole also. In both cases, vote splitting with the Lib Dems seems to be the problem.

I was surprised about Poole given it is the more rural Mid Dorset and 'Poole North' that the Conservatives lost and not the urban Poole, but I know very little about the area, but surely it should have been the other way round. Even West Dorset became very marginal. Is Poole really that super-affluent or as you say was it the lack of tactical voting (yet it was done so effectively next-door).

In the north west, I can only think of Fylde. The only other Lancashire seat the Tories didn't lose was Ribble Valley which you could understand because it's so much more rural, but again like Poole, Fylde is less rural and if anything parts of what is now Sefton Central are probably more well off than parts of Fylde and look at how safe that is for Labour (I assume the Merseyside effect is strong there). I can only think of it being an older age demographic (like I assume Poole and indeed Christchurch...) or the 'we're not Blackpool' effect...

[stb12]

Considerng the dominance they had over South Yorkshire for a long time could Sheffield Hallam fall into this category pre-2015?

[johnloony]

If one is extrapolating voting intentions based on socio-economic structure of the population and type of housing etc., then I suggest Belfast West.

[Sibboleth]

Jan 31, 2023 19:01:47 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Most Cornish constituencies.

New towns.

Boston and Skegness (after 1924).

And the Holland with Boston constituency was only won before as the Labour candidate was essentially a dissident Conservative running under the Labour banner: similar to the somewhat less strange phenomenon of surprisingly good Labour results in those immediate post First World War elections in certain very rural constituencies where the Labour candidate was effectively a dissident Liberal. That list, funnily enough, does include one Cornish constituency.

[finsobruce]

Jan 31, 2023 19:49:14 GMT Sibboleth said:

Jan 31, 2023 19:01:47 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Most Cornish constituencies.

New towns.

Boston and Skegness (after 1924).

And the Holland with Boston constituency was only won before as the Labour candidate was essentially a dissident Conservative running under the Labour banner: similar to the somewhat less strange phenomenon of surprisingly good Labour results in those immediate post First World War elections in certain very rural constituencies where the Labour candidate was effectively a dissident Liberal. That list, funnily enough, does include one Cornish constituency.

When William Royce died in 1924 the by election candidate for Labour was none other than Hugh Dalton.

In 1966 Labour came within 316 votes of winning the seat.

[Sibboleth]

Jan 31, 2023 19:56:29 GMT finsobruce said:

When William Royce died in 1924 the by election candidate for Labour was none other than Hugh Dalton.

The fact that he nearly held it is one of the most genuinely baffling constituency results in British electoral history.

[finsobruce]

Jan 31, 2023 20:01:38 GMT Sibboleth said:

Jan 31, 2023 19:56:29 GMT finsobruce said:

When William Royce died in 1924 the by election candidate for Labour was none other than Hugh Dalton.

The fact that he nearly held it is one of the most genuinely baffling constituency results in British electoral history.

In the 1924 General Election the Labour candidate was George Rivers Blanco White KC

He was married to Amber Reeves who was the daughter of Maud Pember Reeves , famous for the book "Round About a Pound a Week" which detailed poverty in Lambeth.

But Rivers White was not the father of Amber's daughter Anna Jane, that was noted philanderer (among other things) H G Wells.

Wells based his book Ann Veronica on Amber.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jan 31, 2023 19:37:33 GMT stb12 said:

Considerng the dominance they had over South Yorkshire for a long time could Sheffield Hallam fall into this category pre-2015?

No. Before the expansion on the Universities, Western Sheffield was always conservative with a small c, therefore didn't vote for (radical) Labour who ran the council. This is why it went Liberal Democrat not Labour when the Conservatives lost the voters due to their national government being perceived to have been shafting the city. The voters were still anti-Labour. Labour only got the seat due to good leg work, demographic change and Nick Clegg being very marmite in the constituency.

[Clark]

Peterhead and Fraserburgh look like Labour towns on the face of it but have no Labour history whatsoever as you mention. However, there is large private hosuing over the River Ugie near Peterhead golf course - these will be fishermen's houses. Turriff is still rather rural but seems neither wealthy nor poor - perhaps similar to Huntly or Oldmeldrum. Labour is really faltering in NE Scotland and don't even have a shout in any of the Aberdeen seats anymore, neither mind the outlying Aberdeenshire areas.

[finsobruce]

Jan 31, 2023 21:52:18 GMT Clark said:

Peterhead and Fraserburgh look like Labour towns on the face of it but have no Labour history whatsoever as you mention. However, there is large private hosuing over the River Ugie near Peterhead golf course - these will be fishermen's houses. Turriff is still rather rural but seems neither wealthy nor poor - perhaps similar to Huntly or Oldmeldrum. Labour is really faltering in NE Scotland and don't even have a shout in any of the Aberdeen seats anymore, neither mind the outlying Aberdeenshire areas.

The 'Turra Coo' incident is worth a mention at this point: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turra_Coo

[jamie]

Blackpool South. Overwhelmingly working class population in a large town, and nowhere near as elderly as its reputation would suggest. Yet, it voted Conservative until 1997 and had fairly modest Labour majorities from 2010-2017 before voting Conservative in 2019. Tourism orientated seaside towns were traditionally good for the Conservatives and the town has gone downhill, but still, it probably should have been competitive earlier and voted Labour by bigger margins more recently.

[greenhert]

Jan 31, 2023 19:13:46 GMT iain said:

North Cornwall and North Devon are, IIRC, now the only two seats in the country where Labour have never finished second, despite both having significant deprivation.

Labour did finish second in North Devon back in 1951-but that is the only time they have finished second in North Devon since its creation in 1950.

North Cornwall is the only British seat where Labour have never finished in one of the top two spots.

[greenhert]

Jan 31, 2023 19:56:29 GMT finsobruce said:

Jan 31, 2023 19:49:14 GMT Sibboleth said:

And the Holland with Boston constituency was only won before as the Labour candidate was essentially a dissident Conservative running under the Labour banner: similar to the somewhat less strange phenomenon of surprisingly good Labour results in those immediate post First World War elections in certain very rural constituencies where the Labour candidate was effectively a dissident Liberal. That list, funnily enough, does include one Cornish constituency.

When William Royce died in 1924 the by election candidate for Labour was none other than Hugh Dalton.

In 1966 Labour came within 316 votes of winning the seat.

They also came close in 1997 and 2001. The fact that the Referendum Party did not stand in Boston & Skegness in 1997 (Sir Richard Body was a notable Eurosceptic) saved the Conservatives' bacon there.