Prediction Competition - January 2023

[robbienicoll]

Happy new year and welcome back! There appears to be 8 by-elections including a “double” by-election during January.

- 2 by-elections on 5 January
- 2 on 12 January
- 3 including the “double” on 19 January
- 1 on 26 January

4 by-elections including the “double” are for District Councils, 2 of which were last contested in 2022 and the remaining 2 including the “double” in 2019
2 are for a unitary authority, both last contested in 2022
1 is for a County Council last contested in 2021
1 is for a Metropolitan council last contested in 2022

Conservatives defend 5 seats (including 1 in the “double”), 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Labour defend 1 seat following a resignation
Independents defend 1 seat in the “double” election following the death of the previous councillor
Rotherham Democratic Party defend 1 seat (although have not put up a candidate) following a resignation
Residents for Uttlesford defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all SOPNs now published, there is a full slate of 9 Conservative and Labour candidates apiece, 5 Liberal Democrats, 4 Greens, 2 TUSC, and 1 apiece for Yorkshire Party and Residents for Uttlesford together with 6 Independents contesting 5 elections / 6 seats
- a total of 37 candidates for 9 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election. As always, top vote for the double election.

[Tony Otim]

Cannock Chase: Lab 54.2; Con 45.8
Uttlesford: R4U 55.3; Con 28.3; Lab 10.5; LD 5.9

[peterl]

Cannock Chase: Lab 56.5; Con 43.5
Uttlesford: R4U 58.4; Con 25.6; Lab 8.9; LD 7.1

[Richard Cromwell]

Etching Hill and The Heath, Cannock Chase

LAB	54%
CON	46%

Great Dunmow South & Barnston, Uttlesford

Residents for Uttlesford	58%
CON	19%
LAB	18%
LDEM	5%

[manchesterman]

Be fun to get back into this again!

Cannock Chase: Lab 52%, Con 48% (the devil's equation)

Uttlesford: R4U 60%; Con 18%; Lab 16%; LD 6%

[No Offence Alan]

Re-entering the fray.
Cannock Chase: Lab 55.2%, Con 44.8%
Uttlesford: R4U 61%, Lab 17%, Con 13%, LD 9%

[batman]

CANNOCK CHASE, Etching Hill & the Heath : C 50.3 Lab 49.7


UTTLESFORD, Great Dunmow South & Barnston : R4U 51 C 33 LD 12 Lab 4

[andrewp]

Cannock Chase. Lab 53 Con 47
Uttlesford. Res 54, Con 30, LD 10, Lab 6

[yellowperil]

Cannock Chase, Etchinghill & The Heath: Con 49, Lab 51.
Uttlesford, Gt Dunmow South & Barnston: Con 26, Lab 10, LD 11, R4U 52

[johnloony]

Cannock Chase: Con 54 Lab 46
Uttlesford: Con 40 R 34 Lab 19 LD 7

[Robert Waller]

CANNOCK CHASE, Etching Hill & the Heath : C 51 Lab 49


UTTLESFORD, Great Dunmow South & Barnston : R4U 53 C 33 LD 7 Lab 7

[iainbhx]

CANNOCK CHASE DC, Etching Mill & The Heath : Con 52 Lab 48

UTTLESFORD DC, Great Dumnow & Barnstone: R4U 52, Con 30, LDm 10 , Lab 8

[rightleaning]

Cannock Chase: Lab 52, Con 48
Uttlesford: R 50, Con 35, Lab 9, LD 6

[robbienicoll]

12 entries to begin the new year, no kevinf but welcome returns from manchesterman, No Offence Alan and yellowperil. All on time, with yellowperil picking up 1 fault for only getting to 99 in Uttlesford.

Etching Hill and The Heath, Cannock Chase: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with batman, iainbhx, johnloony and Robert Waller Conservative hold.

Great Dunmow South and Barnston, Uttlesford: 11 Residents for Uttlesford hold, majorities ranging from 15% (Right Leaning) to 44% (No Offence Alan). Johnloony Conservative gain with 6% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10ODQgx18WeUCwR9zzSCBUV7jm6hQgQ-gT6I0Cw7rHQs/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[johnloony]

Jan 4, 2023 22:47:08 GMT johnloony said:

Cannock Chase: Con 54 Lab 46
Uttlesford: Con 40 R 34 Lab 19 LD 7

Ha! I’m normally naturally pessimistic, but this time I decided to be ludicrously optimistic about a Conservative gain just for the fun of it. I made my Uttlesford prediction before I bothered to read or know anything about what the situation is about the local Resident group, or what their track record of policies is or was.

[yellowperil]

We await official pronouncements, but I reckon J-Lo(as I like to think of him as) has won Uttlesford by such a massive margin that he still comfortably wins the week in spite of coming in last in Cannock Chase, where we were all quite closely bunched. Hearty congratulations to him, and surely he takes home the bacon.

[robbienicoll]

Jan 6, 2023 9:14:44 GMT yellowperil said:

We await official pronouncements, but I reckon J-Lo(as I like to think of him as) has won Uttlesford by such a massive margin that he still comfortably wins the week in spite of coming in last in Cannock Chase, where we were all quite closely bunched. Hearty congratulations to him, and surely he takes home the bacon.

Wins the week by approx 10 points. It is close though and the small number of contests suggests it could be a competitive month.

[carlton43]

Jan 6, 2023 9:14:44 GMT yellowperil said:

We await official pronouncements, but I reckon J-Lo(as I like to think of him as) has won Uttlesford by such a massive margin that he still comfortably wins the week in spite of coming in last in Cannock Chase, where we were all quite closely bunched. Hearty congratulations to him, and surely he takes home the bacon.

Why are you commenting upon and involved in an obviously very Islamaphobic and AntiSemitic competition?

[yellowperil]

Jan 6, 2023 9:35:44 GMT carlton43 said:

Jan 6, 2023 9:14:44 GMT yellowperil said:

We await official pronouncements, but I reckon J-Lo(as I like to think of him as) has won Uttlesford by such a massive margin that he still comfortably wins the week in spite of coming in last in Cannock Chase, where we were all quite closely bunched. Hearty congratulations to him, and surely he takes home the bacon.

Why are you commenting upon and involved in an obviously very Islamaphobic and AntiSemitic competition?

If you are talking about the Dunmow Flitch, I guess its homophobic too- I guess it's only open to straight couples.  If you were talking about the forum prediction competition, I would be quite worried.

[carlton43]

Jan 6, 2023 11:35:27 GMT yellowperil said:

Jan 6, 2023 9:35:44 GMT carlton43 said:

Why are you commenting upon and involved in an obviously very Islamaphobic and AntiSemitic competition?

If you are talking about the Dunmow Flitch, I guess its homophobic too- I guess it's only open to straight couples.  If you were talking about the forum prediction competition, I would be quite worried.

No.   I was making a joke!!