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Post by robbienicoll on Jan 12, 2023 22:39:34 GMT
13 entries this week, with kevinf returning after last week's sabbatical. All correct, but manchesterman receives 55x2 faults for posting 5 and a half hours past the deadline. Moor View, Plymouth: 7 Labour gain from Conservative, with batman, iainbhx, johnloony, Richard Cromwell, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold. Plympton Chaddlewood, Plymouth: 100% Green gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 5% (johnloony) to 32% (No Offence Alan). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19dDwpC1SoGaQ9LRLS-ueU4StpmXUr9qls1O31c6S2b8/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 12, 2023 23:03:17 GMT
Damn..after my 9 month sabbatical, I forgot about the deadline not being the actual time the polls closed!  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 13, 2023 1:29:07 GMT
On a quick unofficial calculation, I think rightleaning has won the week and moved top for the month. Congratulations! Of course the Official Returning Officer's decisions are awaited ...  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 13, 2023 16:16:55 GMT
On a quick unofficial calculation, I think rightleaning has won the week and moved top for the month. Congratulations! Of course the Official Returning Officer's decisions are awaited ... Congratulations to rightleaning for the week and month to date. 2 out of the 3 next week look potentially quite tricky... |
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Post by batman on Jan 13, 2023 18:35:47 GMT
Once again delighted to have lost this one!
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 13, 2023 20:21:49 GMT
Pleased to have achieved mid-table mediocrity this week instead of being "tail-end Charlie" last week.
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Post by andrewp on Jan 16, 2023 14:05:07 GMT
robbienicoll or others, are we treating the 2 Independents in Biddulph West this week as a team or separately for competition purposes?
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Post by robbienicoll on Jan 16, 2023 19:03:19 GMT
robbienicoll or others, are we treating the 2 Independents in Biddulph West this week as a team or separately for competition purposes? Separately please. Also remember to specify the winners if opting for a split ticket win. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,533
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jan 17, 2023 15:21:05 GMT
STAFFORDSHIRE CC; Biddulph North: Con 50 Lab 37 Ind 13
STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS; Biddulph West: IndE 30 IndM 30 Lab 27 Con 10 Grn 3
STEVENAGE DC; Bedwell: Lab 63 Con 28 LD 9
My normal method of calculating percentages in multi-member wards is to divide the number of votes for a candidate by the total number of ballot papers, so that if a candidate gets 300 votes out of 1,000 ballot papers then it counts as 30%. If two candidates of the same party get 300 votes and 280 votes, then it counts as 29% for the party. In other words, my percentages do not add up to 100%, and are not supposed to. For the purposes of this week's competition, I have scaled down the percentages so that they add up to 100 anyway. The fact that my prediction for Biddulph West is therefore relatively meaningless is helped by the fact that I do not know anything about either of the Independent candidates, and therefore I do not know if they are de-facto part of the same team, or if they have any connections or continuum with the previous Independent councillor or their group(s).
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Post by batman on Jan 17, 2023 16:25:19 GMT
I have to say, I'm struggling as to how to make a coherent prediction in detail for that contest
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2023 20:28:32 GMT
Staffs: Hart 50.2; Lab 27.2; Con 22.6
Staff Moorlands: McLoughlin 26.7; Labour 25.0; Eardley 24.3; Con 14.1; Grn 9.9 (McLoughlin and 1*Lab elected)
Stevenage: Lab 61.9; Con 24.2; LD 13.9
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2023 20:31:21 GMT
STAFFORDSHIRE CC; Biddulph North: Con 15 Lab 11 Ind 4 STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS; Biddulph West: IndE 30 IndM 30 Lab 27 Con 10 Grn 3 STEVENAGE DC; Bedwell: Lab 63 Con 28 LD 9 My normal method of calculating percentages in multi-member wards is to divide the number of votes for a candidate by the total number of ballot papers, so that if a candidate gets 300 votes out of 1,000 ballot papers then it counts as 30%. If two candidates of the same party get 300 votes and 280 votes, then it counts as 29% for the party. In other words, my percentages do not add up to 100%, and are not supposed to. For the purposes of this week's competition, I have scaled down the percentages so that they add up to 100 anyway. The fact that my prediction for Biddulph West is therefore relatively meaningless is helped by the fact that I do not know anything about either of the Independent candidates, and therefore I do not know if they are de-facto part of the same team, or if they have any connections or continuum with the previous Independent councillor or their group(s). But is it intentional, after all that work in Biddulph West, that your prediction for Biddulph North only adds up to 30? |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 17, 2023 20:36:55 GMT
robbienicoll or others, are we treating the 2 Independents in Biddulph West this week as a team or separately for competition purposes? Separately please. Also remember to specify the winners if opting for a split ticket win. IF we think the 2 Independents will come first and second and get elected, do we need to pick a poll topper then? and would we still get wrong winner faults if we eg state Eardley as winner, and McLoughlin comes first and Eardley second? I do personally wonder if is fairer/ easier to treat them as a team. But maybe it isn’t. They are Defitnely standing as a team with joint leaflets etc. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,533
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Jan 17, 2023 20:44:33 GMT
STAFFORDSHIRE CC; Biddulph North: Con 15 Lab 11 Ind 4 STAFFORDSHIRE MOORLANDS; Biddulph West: IndE 30 IndM 30 Lab 27 Con 10 Grn 3 STEVENAGE DC; Bedwell: Lab 63 Con 28 LD 9 My normal method of calculating percentages in multi-member wards is to divide the number of votes for a candidate by the total number of ballot papers, so that if a candidate gets 300 votes out of 1,000 ballot papers then it counts as 30%. If two candidates of the same party get 300 votes and 280 votes, then it counts as 29% for the party. In other words, my percentages do not add up to 100%, and are not supposed to. For the purposes of this week's competition, I have scaled down the percentages so that they add up to 100 anyway. The fact that my prediction for Biddulph West is therefore relatively meaningless is helped by the fact that I do not know anything about either of the Independent candidates, and therefore I do not know if they are de-facto part of the same team, or if they have any connections or continuum with the previous Independent councillor or their group(s). But is it intentional, after all that work in Biddulph West, that your prediction for Biddulph North only adds up to 30? No. That's the badly-edited version. I'll go and edit it now... |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 17, 2023 20:44:58 GMT
Separately please. Also remember to specify the winners if opting for a split ticket win. IF we think the 2 Independents will come first and second and get elected, do we need to pick a poll topper then? and would we still get wrong winner faults if we eg state Eardley as winner, and McLoughlin comes first and Eardley second? I do personally wonder if is fairer/ easier to treat them as a team. But maybe it isn’t. They are Defitnely standing as a team with joint leaflets etc. My personal view would be treat them as a team if they are a registered party, otherwise not. |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 17, 2023 20:47:41 GMT
IF we think the 2 Independents will come first and second and get elected, do we need to pick a poll topper then? and would we still get wrong winner faults if we eg state Eardley as winner, and McLoughlin comes first and Eardley second? I do personally wonder if is fairer/ easier to treat them as a team. But maybe it isn’t. They are Defitnely standing as a team with joint leaflets etc. My personal view would be treat them as a team if they are a registered party, otherwise not. From a practical point of view, I’ve just had a go at some numbers and found it tricky to work out the percentages treating them separately without writing some potential vote totals and then calculating the percentages from those. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 18, 2023 8:16:30 GMT
robbienicoll or others, are we treating the 2 Independents in Biddulph West this week as a team or separately for competition purposes? Separately please. Also remember to specify the winners if opting for a split ticket win. Does that include specifying which Labour candidate wins in the event of a split Labour result? ( I assume a split Conservative win in present circumstances would be ..interesting) |
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Post by batman on Jan 18, 2023 11:28:14 GMT
I don't think I'm going to enter this week, as it doesn't make sense treating the 2 independents separately, but Labour as a team. Unless the rules are amended before the deadline.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 18, 2023 11:35:13 GMT
I'm very tempted to pass on what I have learned from my dad (who lives there) about how the Independents in Biddulph operate.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 18, 2023 11:41:58 GMT
I'm very tempted to pass on what I have learned from my dad (who lives there) about how the Independents in Biddulph operate. Oh go on then. |
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