wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,259
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Post by wallington on Nov 14, 2022 20:31:25 GMT
Cllr Zoe Garbett has announced she is putting herself forward to be Green candidate for London mayor. She has been endorsed by London Assembly member Sian Berry, unless something major was to happen between now and 2024 she will probably be selected.
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,259
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Post by wallington on Nov 14, 2022 20:41:37 GMT
(Feel free to merge this with the election thread when the time comes.) There's speculation about a particular candidacy as part of the ongoing battle over a certain constituency: I wouldn't have thought Corbyn would really want to run to be London Mayor, I suspected this had all come out by his camp as attempt as leverage to be reinstated in Labour so he can be candidate in Islington North at the next general election. I still suspect if he was to fail, he would have a good chance of holding his seat in the Commons as an independent. I've mentioned before that he is probably a small number of MPs who probably do have enough personal vote to have a chance of holding outside of party colours. I don't think he would want to be an independent candidate (he is in his own way a Labour loyalist of sorts).
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 28, 2022 18:35:57 GMT
Cllr Zoe Garbett has announced she is putting herself forward to be Green candidate for London mayor. She has been endorsed by London Assembly member Sian Berry, unless something major was to happen between now and 2024 she will probably be selected. Benali Hamdache, Islington councillor and party spokesperson on migration & refugees, has put his hat in the ring. Well-known and popular within the party, so it's looking like it could be a closer contest than the Sian endorsement initially suggested. (A good-natured one, so far, mind....the inevitable last-day announcement from you-know-who will change that.)
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Post by stb12 on Dec 28, 2022 19:21:30 GMT
A third term would of course be a first for London Mayor, Ken Livingstone was defeated in his two attempts and Boris never tried for one
But under current circumstances there’s no chance at all of Khan losing
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Post by No Offence Alan on Dec 28, 2022 19:41:11 GMT
A third term would of course be a first for London Mayor, Ken Livingstone was defeated in his two attempts and Boris never tried for one But under current circumstances there’s no chance at all of Khan losing Unless Starmer is already PM and unpopular.
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 28, 2022 19:43:23 GMT
Given how much closer the result was last time and now there's no run off I think the Tories are in with a chance with a good candidate
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 28, 2022 19:52:04 GMT
Given how much closer the result was last time and now there's no run off I think the Tories are in with a chance with a good candidate Very hard to see the Tories having a chance if they are still in Government nationally unless the economy has somehow miraculously improved by May 2024. If there is a significant Conservative recovery nationally (which I doubt) Sunak will probably decide to hold a General Election on this day which would ironically help Khan as a higher turnout will help Labour.
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Post by heslingtonian on Dec 28, 2022 19:56:33 GMT
Given how much closer the result was last time and now there's no run off I think the Tories are in with a chance with a good candidate Also who would be a plausible Conservative candidate? None of the GLA members appear cut out for it and unlikely any London Conservative MPs would be especially interested although someone who has a proven campaigning track record like Bob Blackman or Mike Freer would make a decent candidate. None of their few London Council Leaders have a big enough profile either. Personally I think they would be best off with a businessperson who isn't too associated with the Party, Karen Brady would be good if she could be persuaded.
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 28, 2022 20:17:23 GMT
Given how much closer the result was last time and now there's no run off I think the Tories are in with a chance with a good candidate Also who would be a plausible Conservative candidate? None of the GLA members appear cut out for it and unlikely any London Conservative MPs would be especially interested although someone who has a proven campaigning track record like Bob Blackman or Mike Freer would make a decent candidate. None of their few London Council Leaders have a big enough profile either. Personally I think they would be best off with a businessperson who isn't too associated with the Party, Karen Brady would be good if she could be persuaded. Karren Brady? Already in the Lords? I cannot imagine any opposition messaging to that, at all.
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 28, 2022 20:27:59 GMT
Given how much closer the result was last time and now there's no run off I think the Tories are in with a chance with a good candidate Also who would be a plausible Conservative candidate? None of the GLA members appear cut out for it and unlikely any London Conservative MPs would be especially interested although someone who has a proven campaigning track record like Bob Blackman or Mike Freer would make a decent candidate. None of their few London Council Leaders have a big enough profile either. Personally I think they would be best off with a businessperson who isn't too associated with the Party, Karen Brady would be good if she could be persuaded. yes an Andy Street of London
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,877
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Post by jamie on Dec 28, 2022 20:30:04 GMT
Khan’s performance last year was very poor, but he still won by 5% on 1st preferences and 10% on the 2nd round in a nationally comfortably Conservative leaning year. He’s probably not gotten any more popular, but the Conservatives are massively less popular and I don’t think many of us are expecting a massive turnaround by mid-2024.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,069
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Dec 28, 2022 20:35:06 GMT
Also who would be a plausible Conservative candidate? None of the GLA members appear cut out for it and unlikely any London Conservative MPs would be especially interested although someone who has a proven campaigning track record like Bob Blackman or Mike Freer would make a decent candidate. None of their few London Council Leaders have a big enough profile either. Personally I think they would be best off with a businessperson who isn't too associated with the Party, Karen Brady would be good if she could be persuaded. yes an Andy Street of London Hmm
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 28, 2022 20:39:26 GMT
Also who would be a plausible Conservative candidate? None of the GLA members appear cut out for it and unlikely any London Conservative MPs would be especially interested although someone who has a proven campaigning track record like Bob Blackman or Mike Freer would make a decent candidate. None of their few London Council Leaders have a big enough profile either. Personally I think they would be best off with a businessperson who isn't too associated with the Party, Karen Brady would be good if she could be persuaded. yes an Andy Street of London There is no Andy Street in London, but there is one in Birmingham, not far from Five Ways. There’s also one in Rhode Island…..
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 28, 2022 21:41:54 GMT
The 2021 result was rather closer than it seemed it would be, but the Conservatives were enjoying a vaccine boost at the time. The 2021 local election results were unexpectedly good for the Conservatives across the country.
Candidate selection is difficult because the Conservative Party label is not popular in London, so it needs to be someone who is publicly known and plausibly political distant from the national party. There are such people but most are distant because they are to the right, which is not helpful.
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Post by stb12 on Dec 28, 2022 22:16:46 GMT
I think with the 2021 contest there must also have been some complacency from Labour, the Tories didn’t have a high profile candidate or one with any obvious strengths so there can’t have been seen to be any threat at all
It’s also fair to point out that there has been a significant swing towards London being even more of a Labour city since Boris’ mayoral victories, so the factor of a Labour government likely isn’t enough to swing such a contest as long as the party take it seriously
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,335
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Post by ricmk on Dec 28, 2022 22:25:57 GMT
The 2021 result was rather closer than it seemed it would be, but the Conservatives were enjoying a vaccine boost at the time. The 2021 local election results were unexpectedly good for the Conservatives across the country. Candidate selection is difficult because the Conservative Party label is not popular in London, so it needs to be someone who is publicly known and plausibly political distant from the national party. There are such people but most are distant because they are to the right, which is not helpful. So the Conservatives need a candidate who is: - experienced in campaigning against Labour
- well known in London
- has plausible distance from the Government where needed.
- isn't on the hard right of the party.
- not in the Lords or part of the establishment.
I can think of the perfect candidate for them:
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 28, 2022 22:34:05 GMT
The 2021 result was rather closer than it seemed it would be, but the Conservatives were enjoying a vaccine boost at the time. The 2021 local election results were unexpectedly good for the Conservatives across the country. Candidate selection is difficult because the Conservative Party label is not popular in London, so it needs to be someone who is publicly known and plausibly political distant from the national party. There are such people but most are distant because they are to the right, which is not helpful. So the Conservatives need a candidate who is: - experienced in campaigning against Labour
- well known in London
- has plausible distance from the Government where needed.
- isn't on the hard right of the party.
- not in the Lords or part of the establishment.
I can think of the perfect candidate for them: And i thought you meant Boris Johnson...
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Post by stb12 on Dec 28, 2022 23:34:25 GMT
Zac Goldsmith initially fitted the bill as a good candidate in 2016 but the direction his campaign took was a mistake considering it was London
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 29, 2022 2:04:34 GMT
(A good-natured one, so far, mind....the inevitable last-day announcement from you-know-who will change that.) Would this be a certain member from Havering or is there someone else expected to bring turbulence? You haven't let Winston McKenzie add another notch to his party stick have you?
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 29, 2022 6:20:01 GMT
Given how much closer the result was last time and now there's no run off I think the Tories are in with a chance with a good candidate 2021 was a good year for the Conservatives with a solid Boris and vaccine bounce. They won't see those heights again for a while (probably not until they are out of Government) and they'd need a really good candidate. They might have a chance if the Jezziah's "friends" manage to persuade him to run, might.
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