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Post by jm on Nov 25, 2022 15:22:35 GMT
According to the official declaration, the Lib Dem in Bassetlaw actually got 13 votes, not 12 as initially reported.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 25, 2022 15:43:38 GMT
Ashfield: Hucknall Central - Ashfield Independent hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Ashfield Independent | 710 | 54.5% | +17.9% | +17.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 397 | 30.5% | +0.8% | +0.6% | -7.4% | -8.7% | | Conservative | 195 | 15.0% | -3.9% | -2.8% | -10.9% | -9.3% | | UKIP |
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| -14.8% | -15.2% | -23.9% | -23.1% | | Hucknall First |
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| -6.7% | -7.2% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -5.7% | -6.3% | | Total votes | 1,302 |
| 69% | 71% | 36% | 40% |
Swing: Labour to Ashfield Independent 8½% since 2019 Council now: 28 Ashfield Independent, 3 Conservative, 2 Labour, 2 Independent (elected as Ashfield Independent) Bassetlaw: Sutton - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 B votes | since 2019 | since 2015 | | Labour | 301 | 55.9% | +35.7% | +44.0% | +30.2% | | Conservative | 224 | 41.6% | -22.0% | +15.3% | -24.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 13 | 2.4% | -13.7% | from nowhere | -5.9% | | Independent |
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| -61.7% |
| | Total votes | 538 |
| 81% | 87% | 46% |
Swing: if particularly meaningful Conservative to Labour 28¾% since 2021 by-election and 27¼% since 2015 Council now: 35 Labour, 6 Conservative, 6 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat Isle of Wight: Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | | Liberal Democrat | 526 | 53.4% | +23.5% | | Conservative | 239 | 24.3% | -19.3% | | Green | 153 | 15.5% | -11.0% | | Vectis | 36 | 3.7% | from nowhere | | Labour | 31 | 3.1% | from nowhere | | Row 7 column 1 | 985 |
| 78% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 21½ Since 2021 Council now: 17 Conservative, 17 Alliance Group, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour, 1 Independent Labour, 1 Vectis Sefton: Linacre - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B votes | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | | Labour | 636 | 81.5% | +5.4% | -7.3% | +13.0% | +0.4% | | No Description | 144 | 18.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Ford |
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| -17.3% |
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| -6.6% | -11.2% | -5.8% | -5.6% | | Independent Brennan |
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| -15.7% |
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| -6.2% | -4.0% | | Socialist |
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| -3.8% | -3.6% | | Green |
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| -5.7% | | Total votes | 780 |
| 45% | 44% | 45% | 41% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 46 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat & Progressive Alliance, 5 Conservative, 3 Community Independents, 2 Southport Councillors, 2 Independent
Warrington: Rixton & Woolston - Conservative hold | Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | | Conservative | 648 | 42.9% | +2.7% | +3.6% | +23.7% | +24.6% | | Labour | 645 | 42.7% | +5.5% | +6.1% | -2.3% | -2.1% | | Liberal Democrat | 219 | 14.5% | +5.0% | +4.4% | +8.7% | +8.1% | | Independent |
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| -13.2% | -14.1% |
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| -30.2% | -30.6% | | Total votes | 1,512 |
| 49% | 52% | 52% | 58% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 1½% / 1¼% since 2021 but if particularly meaningful Labour to Conservative 13% / 13½% since 2016 Council now: 36 Labour, 10 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 25, 2022 16:51:48 GMT
It's a poor result, but Rixton & Woolston doesn't seem from its demographics like it ought to be a strongly Labour ward - it's fairly elderly, has got very high owner-occupation levels (about half of whom owned outright in 2011, and probably more now) and the NS-SeC classifications suggest it's comparatively well off. Given the other wards in the seat, it must have been comfortably Tory in 2019.
I'm sure there will have been local factors, but I suspect it may also be the case that 2019 broke the dam and local elections are starting to re-map to national voting intentions.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Nov 25, 2022 17:59:55 GMT
Louise Hill, local journalist, is doing a superbly detailed job of reporting on the Isle of Wight count. If you're on Twitter go give her some recognition for it! The Sun Inn at Calbourne is run by a retired railwayman (& former comrade of mine) and his wife and does excellent nosh. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 25, 2022 22:25:23 GMT
I can't comment on Warrington. But Bassettlaw is a good result. From what I understand from colleagues there are a lot of places like this we took for granted. Candidates who weren't up to the mark. This is a sign that they're turning it around. It'll be important to make sure we rebuild on stronger turf than we were swept away on
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Post by batman on Nov 25, 2022 23:24:05 GMT
Labour would never have taken Sutton ward for granted, except inasmuch as they took it for granted they wouldn't win. It's normally a very strongly Tory ward, the safest in the borough for them, and had never even been close to voting Labour before.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 25, 2022 23:46:06 GMT
Considering the baseline years, the contrast between Bassetlaw and Warrington is stark. In Bassetlaw there was a 28% swing to Labour from a baseline of 2019. At the time of the 2019 locals, Lab were approx 5% ahead in the national polls. A fantastic Labour result, probably their best for a long time.. In Warrington there was a 1.4% swing to Labour from a baseline of 2021. At the time of the 2021 locals, the Cons were approximately 9% ahead in the national polls. A very good Con result, one of their best for a while. Electorate for Bassetlaw: Sutton is circa 1,666. The ward is a classic example of where the candidates are extremely important - see numerous postings going back a few years - and any extrapolation is even more dubious than normal. Will try and do the usual analyses in the next day or two but have a number of important issues to deal with. This is very much outer rural Nottinghamshire boondocks where the candidate and his views and connections are importnt with independence also prized. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 25, 2022 23:54:09 GMT
Here's the official biography of the Conservative candidate on the Bassetlaw Conservatives website: www.bassetlawconservatives.org.uk/people/fraser-mcfarlandBorn in Mansfield, studied in Lincoln, was the Conservative agent in Mansfield from 2010 to 2012, moved to Reigate in 2012, moved to Wiltshire in 2013, moved to Suffolk in 2014, moved to Wokingham in 2015 (where he led Vote Leave in Bracknell), became chief of staff to Bassetlaw MP in 2020 and worked on Liz Truss leadership campaign. Who in their right mind thought it was an attractive profile for a local by-election? He's clearly going to get a job for another MP/association soon or get selected as a candidate for Randomshire soon. Born locally Educated locally Conservative agent locally But so far forgot himself as to consider working and living OUTSIDE THE COUNTY! He has now been formally diagnosed as not suffering from Doctorb Syndrome and thus unfit to serve anywhere. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Nov 26, 2022 1:41:54 GMT
Here's the official biography of the Conservative candidate on the Bassetlaw Conservatives website: www.bassetlawconservatives.org.uk/people/fraser-mcfarlandBorn in Mansfield, studied in Lincoln, was the Conservative agent in Mansfield from 2010 to 2012, moved to Reigate in 2012, moved to Wiltshire in 2013, moved to Suffolk in 2014, moved to Wokingham in 2015 (where he led Vote Leave in Bracknell), became chief of staff to Bassetlaw MP in 2020 and worked on Liz Truss leadership campaign. Who in their right mind thought it was an attractive profile for a local by-election? He's clearly going to get a job for another MP/association soon or get selected as a candidate for Randomshire soon. Born locally Educated locally Conservative agent locally But so far forgot himself as to consider working and living OUTSIDE THE COUNTY! He has now been formally diagnosed as not suffering from Doctorb Syndrome and thus unfit to serve anywhere. Would people in Sutton would consider Mansfield local? In comments to the boundary commission current review, there was multiple comments from Bassetlaw district stating that the urban center to which they have the most links isn't Mansfield or Nottingham, but Doncaster (which is actually outside the county). |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 26, 2022 8:06:22 GMT
Here's the official biography of the Conservative candidate on the Bassetlaw Conservatives website: www.bassetlawconservatives.org.uk/people/fraser-mcfarlandBorn in Mansfield, studied in Lincoln, was the Conservative agent in Mansfield from 2010 to 2012, moved to Reigate in 2012, moved to Wiltshire in 2013, moved to Suffolk in 2014, moved to Wokingham in 2015 (where he led Vote Leave in Bracknell), became chief of staff to Bassetlaw MP in 2020 and worked on Liz Truss leadership campaign. Who in their right mind thought it was an attractive profile for a local by-election? He's clearly going to get a job for another MP/association soon or get selected as a candidate for Randomshire soon. Born locally Educated locally Conservative agent locally But so far forgot himself as to consider working and living OUTSIDE THE COUNTY! He has now been formally diagnosed as not suffering from Doctorb Syndrome and thus unfit to serve anywhere. He does however seem to have a pretty poor grasp of grammar, and attributes every success on his travels to his own contribution. I can see how colleagues might find him a pain. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 26, 2022 8:22:32 GMT
Born locally Educated locally Conservative agent locally But so far forgot himself as to consider working and living OUTSIDE THE COUNTY! He has now been formally diagnosed as not suffering from Doctorb Syndrome and thus unfit to serve anywhere. He does however seem to have a pretty poor grasp of grammar, and attributes every success on his travels to his own contribution. I can see how colleagues might find him a pain. I would think worked on the Liz Truss leadership campaign was the real killer. |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 26, 2022 8:29:51 GMT
Born locally Educated locally Conservative agent locally But so far forgot himself as to consider working and living OUTSIDE THE COUNTY! He has now been formally diagnosed as not suffering from Doctorb Syndrome and thus unfit to serve anywhere. He does however seem to have a pretty poor grasp of grammar, and attributes every success on his travels to his own contribution. I can see how colleagues might find him a pain. I read that biography before drafting the preview. There was at least one statement in it which the LEAP archive cast doubt on when I tried to verify it, and I couldn't be bothered digging further given the time and space available. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 26, 2022 9:07:13 GMT
Born locally Educated locally Conservative agent locally But so far forgot himself as to consider working and living OUTSIDE THE COUNTY! He has now been formally diagnosed as not suffering from Doctorb Syndrome and thus unfit to serve anywhere. Would people in Sutton would consider Mansfield local? In comments to the boundary commission current review, there was multiple comments from Bassetlaw district stating that the urban center to which they have the most links isn't Mansfield or Nottingham, but Doncaster (which is actually outside the county). yes. Had this argument with my old boss from Sutton. Often said Mansfield |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 26, 2022 9:09:54 GMT
Labour would never have taken Sutton ward for granted, except inasmuch as they took it for granted they wouldn't win. It's normally a very strongly Tory ward, the safest in the borough for them, and had never even been close to voting Labour before. that might be the case because it was never really worked |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 26, 2022 11:00:42 GMT
It's a poor result, but Rixton & Woolston doesn't seem from its demographics like it ought to be a strongly Labour ward - it's fairly elderly, has got very high owner-occupation levels (about half of whom owned outright in 2011, and probably more now) and the NS-SeC classifications suggest it's comparatively well off. Given the other wards in the seat, it must have been comfortably Tory in 2019. I'm sure there will have been local factors, but I suspect it may also be the case that 2019 broke the dam and local elections are starting to re-map to national voting intentions. Labour would surely still have won but for the unexpectedly strong LibDem performance, though. Which might not be repeated here in an all-out election. |
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Post by matureleft on Nov 26, 2022 11:02:02 GMT
Labour would never have taken Sutton ward for granted, except inasmuch as they took it for granted they wouldn't win. It's normally a very strongly Tory ward, the safest in the borough for them, and had never even been close to voting Labour before. that might be the case because it was never really worked Without knowing the place it’s hard to say, but your general point is good. Particularly in wards with a small population doing some work around a decent local candidate, particularly one known already for other things, can make a staggering difference. These places can seem like Tory fortresses (and in general elections that can remain so). I can recall an amazing win by a young Labour candidate in the Derbyshire Dales (who later regrettably chose to become an independent!). If the Tories make the task easier with an inappropriate candidate choice, so much the better. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 26, 2022 11:20:59 GMT
It's a poor result, but Rixton & Woolston doesn't seem from its demographics like it ought to be a strongly Labour ward - it's fairly elderly, has got very high owner-occupation levels (about half of whom owned outright in 2011, and probably more now) and the NS-SeC classifications suggest it's comparatively well off. Given the other wards in the seat, it must have been comfortably Tory in 2019. I'm sure there will have been local factors, but I suspect it may also be the case that 2019 broke the dam and local elections are starting to re-map to national voting intentions. Labour would surely still have won but for the unexpectedly strong LibDem performance, though. Which might not be repeated here in an all-out election. bit like in Gloucester. Fuck the Lib Dems |
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Post by batman on Nov 26, 2022 11:57:13 GMT
While in general I can't pretend to disagree with your last sentence, the trick is for Labour to make itself irresistable to voters so that they aren't tempted by other parties. Relying on purely tactical votes is not the most satisfying way to win elections.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 26, 2022 12:11:00 GMT
Born locally Educated locally Conservative agent locally But so far forgot himself as to consider working and living OUTSIDE THE COUNTY! He has now been formally diagnosed as not suffering from Doctorb Syndrome and thus unfit to serve anywhere. Would people in Sutton would consider Mansfield local? In comments to the boundary commission current review, there was multiple comments from Bassetlaw district stating that the urban center to which they have the most links isn't Mansfield or Nottingham, but Doncaster (which is actually outside the county). Well they are not just a bit wrong on that but entirely wrong. Bassetlaw is essentially a Worksop-Retford seat, two towns that are not alike and often hate each others guts. They look to Lincoln and Newark a bit, Nottingham more, but essentially to Sheffield. When I arrived there it was from Nottingham and I much preferred Nottingham, but gradually, as I became 'a local', I too looked to Sheffield. Bassetlaw has many Yorkshire attributes and feelings and is in the ambit and orbit of Sheffield. Frankly, no one in their right mind would consider Doncaster for any purpose at all unless they worked there. However, I do agree that candidate choice is key to places like Sutton. A local worthy or involved person with multiple contacts is a far better choice than a professional SPAD even one who would work diligently and knows how the levers of power work. The Conservatives are the ones who have probably been guilty of a 'taking for granted' attitude? My view of the local Labour Party is that it was entrenched, positive, dauntingly well organized and very effective. It was quite old style in being very partisan indeed but also quite right wing; whereas the Conservatives were poorly organized and failed to exploit a substantial conservative-lean sector of the electorate whilst being fairly woke and wet. The actual difference between the two appeared to be vast but was in fact quite slight. I had many more Labour friends and very few Conservative friends and progressively lost most of the latter. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 26, 2022 12:11:35 GMT
While in general I can't pretend to disagree with your last sentence, the trick is for Labour to make itself irresistable to voters so that they aren't tempted by other parties. Relying on purely tactical votes is not the most satisfying way to win elections. 100% we need a distinctive image. Too often members want us to jump into this progressive camp with the Lib Dems and Greens. Lock out the Tories forever. But if people feel that labour, lib Dem and green are interchangeable then why vote labour other than tactically. Then what happens when it's no longer viable to tactically vote labour |
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