Local Council by-elections 23rd/24th November 2022

[andrewp]

Linacre is a Labour hold.

81% of the vote. Quite low for Bootle 😜

[maxque]

Nov 24, 2022 23:06:49 GMT jm said:

Sutton, Bassetlaw

Labour 301
Tory 224
Lib Dem 12

Lab 56.1% (+35.9)
Con 41.7% (-22.0)
LD 2.2% (-13.9)

[olympian95]

Tory hold in Warrington by 3 votes apparently

[maxque]

Nov 24, 2022 23:30:17 GMT andrewp said:

Isle of Wight, Brighstone etc

Lib Dem 526
Con 239
Green 153
Vectis 36
Labour 31

LD 53.4% (+23.5)
Con 24.3% (-19.2)
Grn 15.5% (-11.1)
V 3.7%
Lab 3.1%

[andrewp]

Warrington, Rixton and Woolston

Con 648
Lab 645
LD 219

[andrewp]

Quite a contrast between the Bassetlaw and Warrington results.

[Chris from Brum]

Nov 24, 2022 23:28:54 GMT ricmk said:

Nov 24, 2022 23:25:06 GMT jamesdoyle said:

LibDem gain on the Island, by a decent margin I think

Good news if true - heck of a barren patch for the Lib Dems recently.

Also good to see us winning again in a part of the world where we once had the parliamentary seat.

[phil156]

Have not see the figures but Andrew says Sefton is a hold so off to bed

[dizz]

Nov 25, 2022 0:03:31 GMT maxque said:

Nov 24, 2022 23:06:49 GMT jm said:

Sutton, Bassetlaw

Labour 301
Tory 224
Lib Dem 12

Lab 56.1% (+35.9)
Con 41.7% (-22.0)
LD 2.2% (-13.9)

Lab at 25% in 2015:

2015: Con 774; Lab 302; LD 97

Somwhere in a parallel universe Mansfield the only Con seat in Notts in 23/24?

[maxque]

Nov 25, 2022 0:13:34 GMT andrewp said:

Warrington, Rixton and Woolston

Con 648
Lab 645
LD 219

Con 42.9% (+2.8)
Lab 42.7% (+5.5)
LD 14.5% (+5.0)

[Deleted]

Nov 25, 2022 0:31:53 GMT dizz said:

Nov 25, 2022 0:03:31 GMT maxque said:

Lab 56.1% (+35.9)
Con 41.7% (-22.0)
LD 2.2% (-13.9)

Lab at 25% in 2015:

2015: Con 774; Lab 302; LD 97

Somwhere in a parallel universe Mansfield the only Con seat in Notts in 23/24?

They'll hold Newark at least, surely?

[carlton43]

Nov 24, 2022 23:06:49 GMT jm said:

Sutton, Bassetlaw

Labour 301
Tory 224
Lib Dem 12

Yeahh!  Close one.  LDs nearly pulled it off.  Shame.

[batman]

Nov 25, 2022 2:24:27 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 24, 2022 23:06:49 GMT jm said:

Sutton, Bassetlaw

Labour 301
Tory 224
Lib Dem 12

Yeahh!  Close one.  LDs nearly pulled it off.  Shame.

it was one of the more surprising predictions, the LD gain here. I did actually laugh a bit out loud at this comment

[andrewp]

Sefton. Linacre

Dan McKee. Labour 636
Ian Smith 144

Turnout 8.8% 😂

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI

Lab +115
LDm +81
Grn -11
Con -45

ASV

Lab +1.9
LDm +1.3
Grn -0.2
Con -0.8

[The Bishop]

Nov 25, 2022 0:17:01 GMT andrewp said:

Quite a contrast between the Bassetlaw and Warrington results.

One notable difference between them is the resilience of the LibDem vote in the latter. Did they actually fight a proper campaign there?

Still, its somewhere that Labour can totally truthfully put "vote LibDem, get Tory" on its campaign literature next year.

EDIT: actually appears the next all-out election here isn't due until 2024 - point still stands, though.

[Chris from Brum]

Nov 25, 2022 10:21:46 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 25, 2022 0:17:01 GMT andrewp said:

Quite a contrast between the Bassetlaw and Warrington results.

One notable difference between them is the resilience of the LibDem vote in the latter. Did they actually fight a proper campaign there?

Still, its somewhere that Labour can totally truthfully put "vote LibDem, get Tory" on its campaign literature next year.

I'd imagine that we did fight a proper campaign. There were Indy votes up for grabs, we started off with a decent vote and would want to fight our corner. Bear in mind that the % share for *all* candidates was up.

[andrewp]

Considering the baseline years, the contrast between Bassetlaw and Warrington is stark.

In Bassetlaw there was a 28% swing to Labour from a baseline of 2019. At the time of the 2019 locals, Lab were approx 5% ahead in the national polls. A fantastic Labour result, probably their best for a long time..

In Warrington there was a 1.4% swing to Labour from a baseline of 2021. At the time of the 2021 locals, the Cons were approximately 9% ahead in the national polls. A very good Con result, one of their best for a while.

[middleenglander]

Nov 25, 2022 12:02:56 GMT andrewp said:

Considering the baseline years, the contrast between Bassetlaw and Warrington is stark.

In Bassetlaw there was a 28% swing to Labour from a baseline of 2019. At the time of the 2019 locals, Lab were approx 5% ahead in the national polls. A fantastic Labour result, probably their best for a long time..

In Warrington there was a 1.4% swing to Labour from a baseline of 2021. At the time of the 2021 locals, the Cons were approximately 9% ahead in the national polls. A very good Con result, one of their best for a while.

Electorate for Bassetlaw: Sutton is circa 1,666. The ward is a classic example of where the candidates are extremely important - see numerous postings going back a few years - and any extrapolation is even more dubious than normal.

Will try and do the usual analyses in the next day or two but have a number of important issues to deal with.

[maxque]

Here's the official biography of the Conservative candidate on the Bassetlaw Conservatives website:

www.bassetlawconservatives.org.uk/people/fraser-mcfarland

Born in Mansfield, studied in Lincoln, was the Conservative agent in Mansfield from 2010 to 2012, moved to Reigate in 2012, moved to Wiltshire in 2013, moved to Suffolk in 2014, moved to Wokingham in 2015 (where he led Vote Leave in Bracknell), became chief of staff to Bassetlaw MP in 2020 and worked on Liz Truss leadership campaign.

Who in their right mind thought it was an attractive profile for a local by-election? He's clearly going to get a job for another MP/association soon or get selected as a candidate for Randomshire soon.