carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 28, 2022 8:20:06 GMT
Any chance of an LD gain in Chester? No. My thinking was that Tories know they can't win the seat anymore because of demographic shifts so if they want to give Labour a run for its money they might vote LD this time as a sort of protest vote. At the same time some Labour voters might do the same, ie. voting LD, because voters don't usually like unnecessary by-elections. So, if I have this right, your suggestion is this ....... My party are not popular enough to win this time but will obviously be a losing runner up ...... Therefore my obvious course of action is to vote for a no-hoper party that did far, far worse as the probable best way of beating Labour? I don't follow your logic. |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 28, 2022 8:46:07 GMT
Chester CLP selecting its candidate on Sunday. Pretty open and shut case of who it's going to be - mentioned by Crick and a journo on Twitter, but not mentioned here! Crick (on his Tomorrow's MPs feed) has mentioned four candidates, Sam Dixon (Chester City & the Garden Quarter councillor), Emily Brothers, Tom Williams (office manager for Afzal Khan MP) and Shipon Miah ("Tower Hamlets teacher; martial arts instructor; charity worker"). I'd got the impression Dixon was favourite. Yet another former local council leader. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 28, 2022 9:05:46 GMT
"Chester City and the Garden Quarter" is a best ward name contender. We have Soho and the Jewellery Quarter, which is better. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2022 9:07:55 GMT
"Chester City and the Garden Quarter" is a best ward name contender. We have Soho and the Jewellery Quarter, which is better. Someone should run a poll on this matter. |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Oct 28, 2022 9:13:40 GMT
My thinking was that Tories know they can't win the seat anymore because of demographic shifts so if they want to give Labour a run for its money they might vote LD this time as a sort of protest vote. At the same time some Labour voters might do the same, ie. voting LD, because voters don't usually like unnecessary by-elections. So, if I have this right, your suggestion is this ....... My party are not popular enough to win this time but will obviously be a losing runner up ...... Therefore my obvious course of action is to vote for a no-hoper party that did far, far worse as the probable best way of beating Labour? I don't follow your logic. The logic is that a very large proportion of people who normally vote Conservative or Labour are willing to consider the idea of voting (perhaps not with much enthusiasm) for the Lib Dems, whereas only a small proportion of Conservative or Labour voters are willing to switch directly to each other’s parties. Therefore the likely range of the share of the vote for the Lib Dems might be anything from 10% to 60% whereas the Conservative and Labour parties might have a ceiling of 45%. It is of course illogical and bizarre that anybody could be daft enough to want to vote Lib Dem anyway (one has to bear in mind that the general population contains vast numbers of stupid illogical people), but it has actually worked in a number of by-elections previously. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 28, 2022 9:37:11 GMT
If the Lib Dems got the Lewisham East swing here, the result would be: LAB 32% CON 30% LD 27% GRN 5% OTH 6% But the swing to the LibDems then was a Brexit protest vote in a massively pro-remain seat. What comparable motivator could they use here? |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 28, 2022 9:38:13 GMT
I doubt if the LDs will claim they can win it, but from what I've seen, there is the intention to run an active campaign, unlike Erdington or Sidcup Would make sense from a capacity-building strategy perspective. They've not had a council election since 2019, so very likely need to get people back into action. Especially given the fizzle-out of enthusiasm they experienced after Brexit finally happened. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 28, 2022 9:39:26 GMT
I doubt if the LDs will claim they can win it, but from what I've seen, there is the intention to run an active campaign, unlike Erdington or Sidcup Or indeed unlike West Lancashire, very plausibly. |
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Post by mrsir on Oct 28, 2022 9:45:51 GMT
Any chance of an LD gain in Chester? No. My thinking was that Tories know they can't win the seat anymore because of demographic shifts so if they want to give Labour a run for its money they might vote LD this time as a sort of protest vote. At the same time some Labour voters might do the same, ie. voting LD, because voters don't usually like unnecessary by-elections. They only lost by 93 votes 7 years ago. I think the Conservatives should put in an active campaign here, they obviously won't win it but the reason Labour have done very well here in the last two elections isn't the same reason they have done very well in other 2015 gains like Ilford North and Brentford & Isleworth. This seems like a seat they should be looking to regain when they return to power where as the latter two are almost certainly not possible. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 28, 2022 19:37:52 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Oct 28, 2022 19:56:34 GMT
(Camden councillor and cabinet member)
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 28, 2022 20:09:59 GMT
(Camden councillor and cabinet member) Chester Cllr Samantha Dixon is the other one on the shortlist. I hope I spelled her name and the name of the constituency correctly |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2022 20:27:59 GMT
(Camden councillor and cabinet member) Chester Cllr Samantha Dixon is the other one on the shortlist. I hope I spelled her name and the name of the constituency correctly You did  |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 29, 2022 14:40:18 GMT
Cllr Liz Wardlaw possibly selected as Conservative candidate (two journalists having a disagreement on Twitter):
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YL
Non-Aligned
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Post by YL on Oct 29, 2022 15:31:05 GMT
Cllr Liz Wardlaw possibly selected as Conservative candidate (two journalists having a disagreement on Twitter): There are plenty of other tweets saying she's the candidate, including one from Chester Conservatives with the usual photo of a mass of people holding placards. She's councillor for Odd Rode (another best ward name candidate for doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️?) on Cheshire East, in the Congleton constituency. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 29, 2022 15:58:10 GMT
Cllr Liz Wardlaw possibly selected as Conservative candidate (two journalists having a disagreement on Twitter): There are plenty of other tweets saying she's the candidate, including one from Chester Conservatives with the usual photo of a mass of people holding placards. She's councillor for Odd Rode (another best ward name candidate for doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️?) on Cheshire East, in the Congleton constituency. Third Wood - after Rode Heath and North Rode, all just to the edge of Kidsgrove where my maternal grandparents came from (Great Uncle was Mayor of Kidsgrove). Odd is believed to be from the Olde English Odde, or third, and Rode was woods/woodland. The local Lords of the Manor, the Wilbraham’s, live in Rode Hall. |
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Post by Ben Walker on Oct 30, 2022 12:59:21 GMT
I'm bewildered at why Chester's Conservatives don't plump for one of their own, and haven't done for the past two elections.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 30, 2022 16:57:18 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 30, 2022 17:51:16 GMT
I'm bewildered at why Chester's Conservatives don't plump for one of their own, and haven't done for the past two elections. Being the Conservative candidate at the moment won’t be a pleasant experience though so maybe they should be lucky to have someone. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Oct 30, 2022 19:10:48 GMT
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