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Post by froome on Oct 26, 2022 5:25:45 GMT
Why is it called City of Chester anyway? Why not just Chester? Most other Cities don’t have “City” in their constituency name. It’s one of those annoyingisms, like the constituencies of Brighton / Southampton / Plymouth not just being called “North”, “South”, “East” or “West” or whatever. The official name of Cheshire as the time the seat was created was County Palatine of Chester, so, it was a case like Durham where the county and the county town have the same name. So when did Cheshire become the county's official name? Calling the constituency City of makes it sound like it only covers the city, whereas it covers a far wider area. |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 26, 2022 12:51:37 GMT
According to the dataset used by Alasdair Rae, City of Chester is the 26th least deprived Labour constituency. Wirral West is 23rd and Wirral South 20th; Sefton Central is 8th. Most of the others above Chester are either (a) in London, e.g. Ilford North, all three Wandsworth seats (b) smaller highly educated urban areas, e.g. Cambridge, Exeter, Warwick & Leamington (c) educated middle class parts of cities outside London, e.g. Sheffield Hallam, Cardiff North, Leeds North West. Alyn & Deeside, right across the border, appears too, in 6th place, which surprises me and, together with the positions of some other Welsh constituencies, makes me wonder about how well the Welsh data has been combined with the English and Scottish data. Chester is presumably moved some way up the deprivation list (so down the "least deprived" list) by the Blacon area. ( Source) I’m surprised ‘City of’ Durham comes up as less deprived than Chester. Then again Durham university must make a bigger impression on the city there than Chester university which is smaller and, no disrespect, not quite as highly ranked, Also surprised at how far behind Manchester Withington is compared to the city seats in part (c) you mentioned there. I guess Didsbury and Chorlton aren’t as big as they would like and there must be considerable deprivation in Burnage and ‘Old Moat’ and Withington itself is bang average really. Looking at indices of multiple deprivation figures, even the lowest-ranked (i.e. least deprivation) LSOAs with Manchester Withington are only in the region of 70% down the list. Chorlton and Didsbury themselves are far more mixed than their reputation would suggest. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 26, 2022 18:35:36 GMT
By-election will be 1st December.
(Possibly the week before West Lancashire?)
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peterl
Green
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Post by peterl on Oct 26, 2022 18:38:59 GMT
Very sensible to get this in reasonably quickly, before there has been too much time for even a chance of Tory recovery.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Oct 26, 2022 20:24:31 GMT
Very sensible to get this in reasonably quickly, before there has been too much time for even a chance of Tory recovery. You can just predict the flurry of #SunakOut tweets that will come from Dorries the minute these are declared as Labour holds… Of course if she really wanted to shake things up, if she sees that the polls don’t pick up over the next few months could she resign her seat given her seat in the lords is waiting (and/or a career on TalkTV), and a loss in ‘Mid Beds’ (as she calls it) would be somewhat damaging. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 26, 2022 20:58:43 GMT
By-election will be 1st December. (Possibly the week before West Lancashire?) Which gives candidates only 8 days to submit nomination papers, assuming a deadline of 3rd November. Who will come forward? |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Oct 27, 2022 8:48:19 GMT
‘Mid Beds’ (as she calls it) would be somewhat damaging. Or 'as people around there call it', you mean? You may be blown away by this revelation but they also refer to Central Beds Council. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 27, 2022 13:21:00 GMT
By-election will be 1st December. (Possibly the week before West Lancashire?) Candidates will have to be selected pretty sharpish, if so. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 27, 2022 21:06:24 GMT
Any chance of a LD gain in Chester?  I read a Young LD activist on Twitter today seemingly seriously saying that the swing needed in Chester is less than what was needed in North Shropshire so a full LD campaign should clinch it. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Oct 27, 2022 22:23:08 GMT
Any chance of a LD gain in Chester? I read a Young LD activist on Twitter today seemingly seriously saying that the swing needed in Chester is less than what was needed in North Shropshire so a full LD campaign should clinch it. If boundary changes go ahead then would they have a chance in the new South Cheshire? Particularly if Sandbach stood again? She achieved a sizeable increase in the LD vote albeit still came third. As I understand it, SC takes most of ‘Eddisbury’, gives it a decent name and combines it with Chester-south-of-the-Dee. Then again would this just cause confusion and a split opposition as the Chester element would be well-accustomed to voting Labour to keep the Tories out - there’d need to be a concerted tactical campaign there. In any case most of the Nowcasts have the whole of Cheshire going red, including Tatton! I’d assume Chester North and Neston would be even safer for Labour than the current Chester, then again I know very little about Neston, only Ellesmere Port. |
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Post by Ben Walker on Oct 28, 2022 1:31:19 GMT
Chester CLP selecting its candidate on Sunday. Pretty open and shut case of who it's going to be - mentioned by Crick and a journo on Twitter, but not mentioned here!
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 28, 2022 5:01:22 GMT
Any chance of an LD gain in Chester? No.
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 28, 2022 5:02:41 GMT
Any chance of an LD saved deposit in Chester? Unlikely.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2022 6:04:26 GMT
Not that that will stop the LibDems claiming they'll win it
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Post by rockefeller on Oct 28, 2022 6:47:55 GMT
If the Lib Dems got the Lewisham East swing here, the result would be:
LAB 32% CON 30% LD 27% GRN 5% OTH 6%
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 28, 2022 7:11:26 GMT
The LibDems are not going to claim they can win it.
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YL
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Post by YL on Oct 28, 2022 7:12:21 GMT
Chester CLP selecting its candidate on Sunday. Pretty open and shut case of who it's going to be - mentioned by Crick and a journo on Twitter, but not mentioned here! Crick (on his Tomorrow's MPs feed) has mentioned four candidates, Sam Dixon (Chester City & the Garden Quarter councillor), Emily Brothers, Tom Williams (office manager for Afzal Khan MP) and Shipon Miah ("Tower Hamlets teacher; martial arts instructor; charity worker"). I'd got the impression Dixon was favourite. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2022 7:32:21 GMT
"Chester City and the Garden Quarter" is a best ward name contender.
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Oct 28, 2022 7:44:21 GMT
I doubt if the LDs will claim they can win it, but from what I've seen, there is the intention to run an active campaign, unlike Erdington or Sidcup
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 28, 2022 8:15:23 GMT
Not that that will stop the LibDems claiming they'll win it 'Other failing parties with no policies cannot win here!' |
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