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Post by chorleyboy on Dec 2, 2022 19:43:45 GMT
A 13.8% swing nationally would give Labour a bigger lead than they had in 1997, so a landslide. Maybe they were working on the basis that 13.8% would be unachievable if this had been a GE?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 2, 2022 19:53:43 GMT
So not a landslide The thing is in reality a swing of that scale wouldn't be uniform, not least because there couldn't be a swing as large as that in swathes of Inner London, Merseyside etc, because the Conservatives don't have that much to start with, so it would have to be bigger elsewhere. That's UNS for you. The reality is if there was that scale of swing, the seats in North Nottinghamshire, the Dudleys, Hemel and Harlow (to name a few) would probably go Labour. Then of course you've got a continued underperformance in Scotland (only 5 seats here) which again would probably not be the reality
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 2, 2022 20:37:08 GMT
So not a landslide The thing is in reality a swing of that scale wouldn't be uniform, not least because there couldn't be a swing as large as that in swathes of Inner London, Merseyside etc, because the Conservatives don't have that much to start with, so it would have to be bigger elsewhere. That's UNS for you. The reality is if there was that scale of swing, the seats in North Nottinghamshire, the Dudleys, Hemel and Harlow (to name a few) would probably go Labour. Then of course you've got a continued underperformance in Scotland (only 5 seats here) which again would probably not be the reality The idea that, on this performance, Labour would have fewer seats in Scotland than they had in 2017, is just laughable (or, to be less charitable, risible).
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Post by batman on Dec 2, 2022 21:03:38 GMT
risible is just the Latin-ish for laughable, but it does have a more contemptuous tone.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Dec 2, 2022 21:08:00 GMT
My late grandmother (a stalwart of the Chester Conservative association) will be turning at a zillion revolutions in her grave at this result...
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john07
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Post by john07 on Dec 2, 2022 21:43:30 GMT
My late grandmother (a stalwart of the Chester Conservative association) will be turning at a zillion revolutions in her grave at this result... Well Chester voted solidly Tory since time began apart from returning a Liberal in 1906. Labour first won in 1997 and held until 2010 when the conservatives won the seat. Labour regained the seat in 2015 by a majority of 93, and held the seat in 2017 and 2019. Hardly a rock-solid seat for anyone over the longer term? Obviously a seat that has trended towards Labour in the past 25 years.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 2, 2022 21:58:34 GMT
risible is just the Latin-ish for laughable, but it does have a more contemptuous tone. It is like the old-fashioned, still used in the North, expression "He wants a wash" - it sounds more cutting than "He needs a wash"
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2022 22:04:01 GMT
This is set to be the final election for a constituency called "City of Chester"
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 3, 2022 7:32:15 GMT
There's a difference between Chester in 2022 and Dudley W, SE Staffs and Mid Staffs in the 90s. Does Rentoul know what it is?
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Post by batman on Dec 3, 2022 8:14:54 GMT
apparently not!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 3, 2022 8:18:23 GMT
There's a difference between Chester in 2022 and Dudley W, SE Staffs and Mid Staffs in the 90s. Does Rentoul know what it is? Chester is in Cheshire while SE Staffs, Mid Staffs and Dudley West are in Staffordshire?
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 3, 2022 8:46:54 GMT
There's a difference between Chester in 2022 and Dudley W, SE Staffs and Mid Staffs in the 90s. Does Rentoul know what it is? Chester is in Cheshire while SE Staffs, Mid Staffs and Dudley West are in Staffordshire? Touche Dudley W, Mid Staffs and Staffs SE were Tory before those by-elections and Chester was a Labour defence.
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 3, 2022 8:56:42 GMT
Chester is in Cheshire while SE Staffs, Mid Staffs and Dudley West are in Staffordshire? Touche Dudley W, Mid Staffs and Staffs SE were Tory before those by-elections and Chester was a Labour defence. So were Barking and Dagenham, although these are in Barking&Dagenham which Chester is not. (Also, the Tory candidate in Barking was a future prime minister, so that's presumably another difference.)
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 3, 2022 9:04:19 GMT
There's a difference between Chester in 2022 and Dudley W, SE Staffs and Mid Staffs in the 90s. Does Rentoul know what it is? Chester is in Cheshire while SE Staffs, Mid Staffs and Dudley West are in Staffordshire? Dudley’s not in Staffordshire; prior to the creation of West Midlands it was in Worcestershire.
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Post by batman on Dec 3, 2022 9:12:31 GMT
yes, that's why Duncan Edwards, who came from Dudley, played for Worcestershire Schools.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 3, 2022 9:36:24 GMT
Chester is in Cheshire while SE Staffs, Mid Staffs and Dudley West are in Staffordshire? Dudley’s not in Staffordshire; prior to the creation of West Midlands it was in Worcestershire. Rather like West Bromwich West, Dudley West contained no part of the former Dudley CB. It comprised the areas of Sedgley, Kingswinford, Brierly Hill, Amblecote - all in Staffordshire
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 3, 2022 9:39:49 GMT
Chester is in Cheshire while SE Staffs, Mid Staffs and Dudley West are in Staffordshire? Touche Dudley W, Mid Staffs and Staffs SE were Tory before those by-elections and Chester was a Labour defence. As minionofmidas has pointed out, whatever point you are trying to make is rather negated by the fact you've cherry-picked three of the five seats listed which were Conservative defences and ignored the two Labour defences. There's also rather a difference between Mid Staffs and SE Staffs. Do you know what that is?
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 3, 2022 9:49:53 GMT
Touche Dudley W, Mid Staffs and Staffs SE were Tory before those by-elections and Chester was a Labour defence. As minionofmidas has pointed out, whatever point you are trying to make is rather negated by the fact you've cherry-picked three of the five seats listed which were Conservative defences and ignored the two Labour defences. There's also rather a difference between Mid Staffs and SE Staffs. Do you know what that is? Thatcher was still PM at the time of the Mid Staffs contest?
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Post by rockefeller on Dec 3, 2022 9:52:39 GMT
Touche Dudley W, Mid Staffs and Staffs SE were Tory before those by-elections and Chester was a Labour defence. So were Barking and Dagenham, although these are in Barking&Dagenham which Chester is not. (Also, the Tory candidate in Barking was a future prime minister, so that's presumably another difference.) What's the best parallel of the Chester by-election? One of the ones not long after John Major became PM? The Monmouth swing was similar in 1991,
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Post by minionofmidas on Dec 3, 2022 9:55:47 GMT
Touche Dudley W, Mid Staffs and Staffs SE were Tory before those by-elections and Chester was a Labour defence. As minionofmidas has pointed out, whatever point you are trying to make is rather negated by the fact you've cherry-picked three of the five seats listed which were Conservative defences and ignored the two Labour defences. There's also rather a difference between Mid Staffs and SE Staffs. Do you know what that is? one was a strange leftovers seat?
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