City of Chester

[johnloony]

This

www.cheshirewestandchester.gov.uk/your-council/voting-and-elections/election-results/2022-elections/city-of-chester-parliamentary-by-election

confirms the Green 987 not 787, as does the fact that the numbers add up correctly if it’s 987

[timmullen1]

Dec 2, 2022 11:13:52 GMT aargauer said:

Dec 2, 2022 11:11:23 GMT The Bishop said:

Don't really think of the last two as "grandmother" names tbh, though agree they could become "dated" over time.

Amelia Earhart?

You’ll be delighted I’m sure to know that, on Office for National Statistics data, Olivia has been the most popular girls name for the last six years, with Amelia in second place last year, and Ivy climbing one place to number five.

[Clark]

Is John Rentoul of the Independant a Tory? He's been on BBC News saying this isn't a great result for Labour and that the Tories will be happy?!

And it won't be enough for Labour to win a General Election - I couldn't believe what I was hearing from an 'expert'

[Devil Wincarnate]

Twas ever thus with names. There's a chapter on it in Freakonomics. Girl's names in particular have a cultural cachet attached and tend to start off popular amongst better-educated women, and then bit by bit move down the socio-economic ladder. At which point they increasingly lose cachet until nobody is calling their child that name at all.

An interesting theory that probably isn't that wide of the mark.

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 2, 2022 11:30:21 GMT timmullen1 said:

Dec 2, 2022 11:13:52 GMT aargauer said:

Amelia Earhart?

You’ll be delighted I’m sure to know that, on Office for National Statistics data, Olivia has been the most popular girls name for the last six years, with Amelia in second place last year, and Ivy climbing one place to number five.

I only know one Ivy.

She is the 102 year old I mentioned in another thread.

She will be 103 in another couple of weeks.

[The Bishop]

Dec 2, 2022 11:44:59 GMT Clark said:

Is John Rentoul of the Independant a Tory? He's been on BBC News saying this isn't a great result for Labour and that the Tories will be happy?!

And it won't be enough for Labour to win a General Election - I couldn't believe what I was hearing from an 'expert'

Tory or not, Rentaghoul is a joke grifter who deserves no respect from anyone.

But much more astonishingly, the rather more credible Peter Kellner has been saying similar. Its a complete misreading of byelections in the 1992-97 parliament as much as anything else - when pro-Labour swings were markedly more modest in seats *that they already held*.

[timmullen1]

Dec 2, 2022 12:18:43 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 2, 2022 11:44:59 GMT Clark said:

Is John Rentoul of the Independant a Tory? He's been on BBC News saying this isn't a great result for Labour and that the Tories will be happy?!

And it won't be enough for Labour to win a General Election - I couldn't believe what I was hearing from an 'expert'

Tory or not, Rentaghoul is a joke grifter who deserves no respect from anyone.

But much more astonishingly, the rather more credible Peter Kellner has been saying similar. Its a complete misreading of byelections in the 1992-97 parliament as much as anything else - when pro-Labour swings were markedly more modest in seats *that they already held*.

Well for balance, Sir John Curtice is quoted as telling the Today programme that it was Labour’s best by-election performance since Middlesbrough in 2012, that it “probably confirms” the opinion polls, and that Labour would “undoubtedly” win the next election if the result was replicated nationally.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entry/labour-would-undoubtedly-win-next-election-if-chester-result-was-repeated-says-polling-guru_uk_6389b4ade4b0151bdb2004d8/

[batman]

Rentoul is an uber-Blairite rather than an actual Tory. Surprised at Peter Kellner but he is less worth listening to than John Curtice nowadays, perhaps he always has been.

[batman]

And I hadn't read the previous comment when I posted that so SNAP

[batman]

Dec 2, 2022 12:15:13 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Dec 2, 2022 11:30:21 GMT timmullen1 said:

You’ll be delighted I’m sure to know that, on Office for National Statistics data, Olivia has been the most popular girls name for the last six years, with Amelia in second place last year, and Ivy climbing one place to number five.

I only know one Ivy.

She is the 102 year old I mentioned in another thread.

She will be 103 in another couple of weeks.

We know an Ivy who is about 7 years old. Her parents are Brazilian & live in Dagenham.

[Deleted]

I had absolutely zero... literally zero... idea that this by-election was last night.
I don't watch TV news so much nowadays, but I didn't hear anything of it for weeks and weeks. I didn't see it mentioned on the BBC app in the run up, or hear about it on the car radio. No one in my family or at work has mentioned it.
It's like it never happened.

Maybe I'm more 'normal' than I thought. 

[chorleyboy]

Dec 2, 2022 13:08:55 GMT @johnyorks said:

I had absolutely zero... literally zero... idea that this by-election was last night.
I don't watch TV news so much nowadays, but I didn't hear anything of it for weeks and weeks. I didn't see it mentioned on the BBC app in the run up, or hear about it on the car radio. No one in my family or at work has mentioned it.
It's like it never happened.

Maybe I'm more 'normal' than I thought. 

It has been mentioned on the local news here in the north west - I do not actually live that close to this constituency, but was aware it was happening.

[mattbewilson]

I think Rentoul is Blair or bust, he'd follow Blair off the edge of a cliff. Peter Kellner is of the new labour era but definitely not as enamoured by Blair but I'm not sure anyone is as enamoured as Rentoul. I met Kellner once, I was perhaps too young really to comment but it was when his wife was off to Europe. The impression people were left with was one of great importance. Maybe he's feeling a little left out?

[timmullen1]

Dec 2, 2022 14:08:31 GMT chorleyboy said:

Dec 2, 2022 13:08:55 GMT @johnyorks said:

I had absolutely zero... literally zero... idea that this by-election was last night.
I don't watch TV news so much nowadays, but I didn't hear anything of it for weeks and weeks. I didn't see it mentioned on the BBC app in the run up, or hear about it on the car radio. No one in my family or at work has mentioned it.
It's like it never happened.

Maybe I'm more 'normal' than I thought. 

It has been mentioned on the local news here in the north west - I do not actually live that close to this constituency, but was aware it was happening.

I had far fewer begging emails, either to donate or campaign, than I did for Wakefield, and Chester’s far closer and easily accessible. It does seem to have been handled very internally by North West Region; I said a couple of days ago I felt it was a sleeper that even the Conservatives gave up on before it started (I didn’t see a Sunak visit, although I did see Starmer and Rayner up there twice), and I noticed last night The Guardian didn’t run its usual live blog from the count, just sending out a push notification on my phone about 15 minutes after the declaration.

[Sg1]

Dec 2, 2022 11:44:59 GMT Clark said:

Is John Rentoul of the Independant a Tory? He's been on BBC News saying this isn't a great result for Labour and that the Tories will be happy?!

And it won't be enough for Labour to win a General Election - I couldn't believe what I was hearing from an 'expert'

What was the rationale for this? I assumed that the swing in Chester would be slightly above national average since it's a part of the world that's trended Labour the last few elections and where they seem to be well organised on the ground.

With that in mind I'd argue that if replicated in a general election, that result would point to a slim Labour majority rather than the landslide that a lot of people seem to be projecting.

[bsjmcr]

Dec 2, 2022 13:08:55 GMT @johnyorks said:

I had absolutely zero... literally zero... idea that this by-election was last night.
I don't watch TV news so much nowadays, but I didn't hear anything of it for weeks and weeks. I didn't see it mentioned on the BBC app in the run up, or hear about it on the car radio. No one in my family or at work has mentioned it.
It's like it never happened.

Maybe I'm more 'normal' than I thought. 

I don't blame you, a bit like Chesham really, (slightly less so in terms of no change in party),  I remember I was caught out of the blue with that one. Very little ramping up/'Vox pops' beforehand compared to Hartlepool, Batley and indeed Shropshire and Tiverton - but I guess unlike them there was no prospect of a change in party nor was it the governing party's seat.

People's thoughts on upcoming coverage of West Lancashire/Stretford & Urmston? Heightened political awareness and ramping of a string of Tory declines/'worst result since X' or will they just be dismissed as 'just another by election in safe Labour seats'...

[Deleted]

All by-elections have narratives and storylines, even in safe seats. This one didn't really grab the attention but there are consequences to discuss: the increase in Labour share and what that might mean; lack of impact from other parties, particularly Reform. The 'before' seems to have been quiet, let's try to get the 'after' going!

[ricmk]

Dec 2, 2022 13:08:55 GMT @johnyorks said:

I had absolutely zero... literally zero... idea that this by-election was last night.
I don't watch TV news so much nowadays, but I didn't hear anything of it for weeks and weeks. I didn't see it mentioned on the BBC app in the run up, or hear about it on the car radio. No one in my family or at work has mentioned it.
It's like it never happened.

Maybe I'm more 'normal' than I thought. 

I'm afraid that if you are complaining on a politics discussion board about not knowing about a by-election, it's hard to diagnose 'normalcy.'

If you'd been complaining on a football blog that you had known about it and wished you hadn't, now that would be evidence.

[Deleted]

Dec 2, 2022 17:49:58 GMT ricmk said:

Dec 2, 2022 13:08:55 GMT @johnyorks said:

I had absolutely zero... literally zero... idea that this by-election was last night.
I don't watch TV news so much nowadays, but I didn't hear anything of it for weeks and weeks. I didn't see it mentioned on the BBC app in the run up, or hear about it on the car radio. No one in my family or at work has mentioned it.
It's like it never happened.

Maybe I'm more 'normal' than I thought. 

I'm afraid that if you are complaining on a politics discussion board about not knowing about a by-election, it's hard to diagnose 'normalcy.'

If you'd been complaining on a football blog that you had known about it and wished you hadn't, now that would be evidence.

I have too much good taste to comment on a football blog. 😉

[Clark]

Dec 2, 2022 17:16:24 GMT Sg1 said:

Dec 2, 2022 11:44:59 GMT Clark said:

Is John Rentoul of the Independant a Tory? He's been on BBC News saying this isn't a great result for Labour and that the Tories will be happy?!

And it won't be enough for Labour to win a General Election - I couldn't believe what I was hearing from an 'expert'

What was the rationale for this? I assumed that the swing in Chester would be slightly above national average since it's a part of the world that's trended Labour the last few elections and where they seem to be well organised on the ground.

With that in mind I'd argue that if replicated in a general election, that result would point to a slim Labour majority rather than the landslide that a lot of people seem to be projecting.

Surely a 13.8% swing would give Labour more than a slim majority?