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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 1, 2022 23:02:09 GMT
Disappointing candidates don't have to wear a high-vis. They could all have one in their party colours. Hand them out to their supporters. Then everyone could see how many each party had. That's what rosettes are for. (Though I haven't worn one to a count for at least a decade, probably two.) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2022 23:57:06 GMT
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,265
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Post by WJ on Dec 2, 2022 1:05:26 GMT
No, No, No, NA* and No. More like Exeter or maybe Gloucester * I know nothing about St Albans I had thought Exeter and Gloucester were probably the best fits for a southern Chester. If you were looking for a more right wing southern cathedral city Rochester might be a possibility? Guildford, Chelmsford and Colchester sprung to mind too. But that's not based on any experience with those places, so I'm probably way off. |
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Post by mercian on Dec 2, 2022 1:10:49 GMT
Is a declaration expected tonight?
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Post by phil156 on Dec 2, 2022 1:23:10 GMT
Yes in the next hour
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Post by mattbewilson on Dec 2, 2022 1:24:19 GMT
I had thought Exeter and Gloucester were probably the best fits for a southern Chester. If you were looking for a more right wing southern cathedral city Rochester might be a possibility? Guildford, Chelmsford and Colchester sprung to mind too. But that's not based on any experience with those places, so I'm probably way off. Colchester and Chelmsford/Guildford seem like different places let alone like Chester |
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 2, 2022 1:29:18 GMT
Guildford, Chelmsford and Colchester sprung to mind too. But that's not based on any experience with those places, so I'm probably way off. Colchester and Chelmsford/Guildford seem like different places let alone like Chester I'm not even sure I'd group Chelmsford and Guildford together - one is a small city that feels like a large town and the other is a large town that feels like a small city. If I had to make a comparison it would probably be Winchester or Salisbury (with Southampton playing the role that Liverpool does to Chester) - but both of those are much more genteel and much less urban than Chester! |
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Post by mercian on Dec 2, 2022 1:30:21 GMT
phil156Thanks. I don't think I can wait up any longer. I'm a lightweight.
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Post by phil156 on Dec 2, 2022 1:41:00 GMT
Sky says its wont be long
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 2, 2022 1:52:13 GMT
Sky says its wont be long Oh dear, that's worrying  |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 2, 2022 1:57:03 GMT
Result| Jeanie Barton | Reform UK | 773 | 2.7% | | Paul Bowers | Green | 787 | 2.8% | | Samantha Dixon | Labour | 17,309 | 61.2% | | Cain Griffiths | UKIP | 179 | 0.6% | | Ron Herd | Liberal Democrats | 2,368 | 8.4% | | Richard Hewison | Rejoin EU | 277 | 1.0% | | Howling Hope | Official Monster Raving Loony Party | 156 | 0.6% | | Chris Quartermaine | Freedom Alliance | 91 | 0.3% | | Liz Wardlaw | Conservative | 6,335 | 22.4% |
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Dec 2, 2022 2:00:30 GMT
LAB: 61.2% (+11.6)
CON: 22.4% (-15.9)
LDEM: 8.4% (+1.5)
GRN: 2.8% (+0.1)
REF: 2.7% (+0.2)
REU: 1.0% (+1.0)
UKIP: 0.6% (+0.6)
MRLP: 0.6% (+0.6)
FA: 0.3% (+0.3)
13.75% swing Con to Lab.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Dec 2, 2022 2:03:24 GMT
Did the Lib Dems do any work?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2022 2:07:10 GMT
LibDems have a non-negligible local base in the seat, so said they were going to run a proper campaign and looks like they did.
Very decent result for Labour, poor for Tories, pretty pathetic for Reform.
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 2, 2022 2:09:52 GMT
LibDems have a non-negligible local base in the seat, so said they were going to run a proper campaign and looks like they did. Very decent result for Labour, poor for Tories, pretty pathetic for Reform. Yes. Really poor for Reform in view of the Conservative % loss. They picked up nothing at all, so they are still making a zero cut through. |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Dec 2, 2022 2:13:02 GMT
A 13.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour nationally would imply a national vote share of around Lab 47, Con 31 - Labour around where they should be based on the opinion polls, with the Conservatives slightly higher than their polling. Implies the polls are probably right at the moment.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2022 2:20:53 GMT
A 13.8% swing from the Conservatives to Labour nationally would imply a national vote share of around Lab 47, Con 31 - Labour around where they should be based on the opinion polls, with the Conservatives slightly higher than their polling. Implies the polls are probably right at the moment. Though the 2019 swing to the Tories in this seat - around 2.5% - was well below average, and that maybe shouldn't be forgotten. The circumstances of this byelection didn't make Labour worried about actually winning, but did have some fearing the result might be a bit on the underwhelming side. This did not happen. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,730
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 2, 2022 2:40:11 GMT
LibDems have a non-negligible local base in the seat, so said they were going to run a proper campaign and looks like they did. Very decent result for Labour, poor for Tories, pretty pathetic for Reform. There was evidence on Facebook of canvassing and leafletting sessions happening. What I can't say is whether we covered the whole constituency or just our core areas. We didn't get as far as phone banking or anything like that here. |
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skyep
Non-Aligned
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Post by skyep on Dec 2, 2022 3:06:04 GMT
can't but wonder why the lib dems don't try and put some stealthy (e.g. phone canvassing etc) or non-stealthy effort (e.g. doing call-outs for activists to come in from neighbouring areas, running a by election hq etc) into these three by-elections in the north west
...getting above the tories in any of them would be a stand out narrative and worth the effort id imagine
am guessing the answer is being exposed for having done so but failing, making it seem like a worse result, along with activist fatigue/activists feeling asked to effectively "waste their time" and so not answering such call-outs in the future in a party "crying wolf" sort of way
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skyep
Non-Aligned
Posts: 61
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Post by skyep on Dec 2, 2022 3:10:03 GMT
...directly targeting tories or soft tories (potential switchers) would be one way of getting much closer to doing so, moving up into a second place finish in this or a future election in the seats also...surely a medium-long term strategy worth trying in a by-election 'opportunity'...?
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