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Post by middleenglander on Mar 30, 2013 11:43:51 GMT
Looks like 15 by-elections during April
- 7 on 4th April
- 1 on 10th (Wednesday)
- 2 on 11th
- 1 on 18th
- 4 on 25th
7 of the contests are in Metropolitan Boroughs which hold elections 3 out of 4 years
1 is in an Unitary Authority also with annual election
5 are in Unitary Authorities which hold elections every 4 years, the last occasion in 2011
1 in a District Council where the last election was in 2011 and
1 in Wales where elections were held in 2012.
The Conservatives are defending 3 seats - all arising from a death
Labour defend 9 seats - 5 from a death and 4 resignations
Lib Dems defend 2 seats - 1 death and 1 resignation
With all nominations now in, there are a total of 67 candidates:
- Conservatives and Labour are both contesting all the seats whilst the Lib Dems have 14 candidates but no one in Pembrokeshire
- Greens and UKIP each have 5 candidates, Independents 4 (2 in Pembrokeshire), Resident Groups and TUSAC 3 each whilst BNP, National Front and the Elvis Party have 1.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 3, 2013 20:14:29 GMT
KNOWSLEY - Prescot East (Labour died)
Adam BUTLER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 3%
Carl CASHMAN (Liberal Democrats) 33
Steff O'KEEFFE (Labour Party Candidate) 64
KNOWSLEY - Prescot West (Labour died)
Robert AVERY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 3
Robert MBANU (Green Party) 2
Lynn O'KEEFFE (Labour Party Candidate) 42
Ian SMITH (Liberal Democrats) 43
Stephen WHATHAM (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 10
KNOWSLEY - St Michaels (Labour died)
Mike CURRIE (Liberal Democrats) 8
David DUNNE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 2
Vickie LAMB (Labour Party Candidate) 90
NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE - Humberston and New Waltham (Conservative died)
Harry HALL (Conservative Party) 35
Stephen HARNESS (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 42
Ashley SMITH (Labour Party Candidate) 19
Stephen STEAD (Liberal Democrats) 4
NOTTINGHAM - Bilborough (Labour died)
David BISHOP (Elvis Loves Pets Party) 1
Katharina BOETTGE (Green Party) 2
John CALVERT (Liberal Democrats) 4
Ian CULLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 9
Irenea MARRIOTT (UK Independence Party) 19
Wendy SMITH (The Labour Party Candidate) 65
NOTTINGHAM - Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey (Labour resigned)
Jeanna PARTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 13
Tony SUTTON (Liberal Democrats) 32
Andrew TAYLOR (UK Independence Party) 10
Sam WEBSTER (The Labour Party Candidate) 45
WIGAN - Pemberton (Labour died)
Jonathan CARTWRIGHT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 5
Peter FRANZEN (Community Action Party) 10
Alan FREEMAN (UK Independence Party) 18
Sam MURPHY (The Labour Party Candidate) 63
Dennis SHAMBLEY (British National Party) 4
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Post by erlend on Apr 3, 2013 20:50:09 GMT
Knowsley Prescot East Con 2, LD 40, Lab 58
Knowsley Prescot West Con 2 Grn 1 Lab 40 LD 52 TUSC 5
Knowsley St Michaels LD 10 Con 5 Lab 85
NE Lincs Humberston+ Con 50 UKIP 22 Lab 25 LD 3
Nottingham Bilborough ELP 0.5 Grn 4 LD 3.9 Con 15 UKIP 13 Lab 63,6
Nottingham Wollaton+ Con 15 LD 27 UKIP 7 Lab 51
Wigan Pemberton Con 10 CA 10 UKIP 8 Lab 70 BNP 2
I have no inside knowledge but suspect someone like Tricky may have helped Prescot. Sensibly they should just have gone for 1 seat but I suspect they will have wanted to try for both.
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Post by marksenior on Apr 3, 2013 20:50:34 GMT
Prescot East Lab 61 LD 36 Con 3
Prescot West Lab 43 LD 40 TUSC 8 Con 5 Green 4
St Michaels Lab 88 LD 9 Con 3
NE Lincs UKIP 38 Con 33 Lab 23 LD 6
Bilborough Lab 52 Con 16 UKIP 15 LD 9 Green 6 ELP 2
Woolaton East LD 38 Lab 35 Con 18 UKIP 9
Wigan Lab 68 CAP 12 UKIP 10 Con 6 BNP 4
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 3, 2013 21:13:50 GMT
KNOWSLEY - Prescot East (Labour died)
Adam BUTLER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 5
Carl CASHMAN (Liberal Democrats) 20
Steff O'KEEFFE (Labour Party Candidate) 75
KNOWSLEY - Prescot West (Labour died)
Robert AVERY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 3
Robert MBANU (Green Party) 5
Lynn O'KEEFFE (Labour Party Candidate) 32
Ian SMITH (Liberal Democrats) 40
Stephen WHATHAM (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 20
KNOWSLEY - St Michaels (Labour died)
Mike CURRIE (Liberal Democrats) 15
David DUNNE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 10
Vickie LAMB (Labour Party Candidate) 75
NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE - Humberston and New Waltham (Conservative died)
Harry HALL (Conservative Party) 30
Stephen HARNESS (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 39
Ashley SMITH (Labour Party Candidate) 21
Stephen STEAD (Liberal Democrats) 10
NOTTINGHAM - Bilborough (Labour died)
David BISHOP (Elvis Loves Pets Party) 0.3
Katharina BOETTGE (Green Party) 5
John CALVERT (Liberal Democrats) 4.7
Ian CULLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15
Irenea MARRIOTT (UK Independence Party) 40
Wendy SMITH (The Labour Party Candidate) 35
NOTTINGHAM - Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey (Labour resigned)
Jeanna PARTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15
Tony SUTTON (Liberal Democrats) 24
Andrew TAYLOR (UK Independence Party) 31
Sam WEBSTER (The Labour Party Candidate) 30
WIGAN - Pemberton (Labour died)
Jonathan CARTWRIGHT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 5
Peter FRANZEN (Community Action Party) 25
Alan FREEMAN (UK Independence Party) 36
Sam MURPHY (The Labour Party Candidate) 33
Dennis SHAMBLEY (British National Party) 1
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Apr 3, 2013 21:20:07 GMT
Knowsley Prescot East LAB 65 LIBDEM 30 CON 5
Knowsley Prescot West LIBDEM 45 LAB 44 CON 5 TUSC 4 GREEN 2
Knowsley St Michaels LAB 85 LD 10 CON 5
NE Lincs CON 40 UKIP 25 LAB 25 LIBDEM 10
Nottingham Bilb’gh LAB 64 ELPP 0.5 GREEN 2.5 LIBDEM 5 CON 15 UKIP 13
Nottingham Wollaton LAB 60 LIBDEM 20 CON 15 UKIP 5
Wigan Pemberton LAB 69 CAP 11 CON 10 UKIP 8 BNP 2
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 3, 2013 21:38:20 GMT
I'm not going to enter the competition this month.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 3, 2013 23:06:17 GMT
Knowsley MBC, Prescot East
Lab 63
LD 33
Con 4
Knowsley MBC, Prescot West
Lab 50
LD 35
TUSC 8
Con 5
Green 2
Knowsley MBC, St. Michaels
Lab 86
LD 12
Con 2
North East Lincolnshire UA, Humberston and New Waltham
UKIP 43
Con 34
Lab 17
LD 6
City of Nottingham UA, Bilborough
Lab 61
UKIP 16
Con 11
LD 8
Green 3
Elvis 1
City of Nottingham UA, Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey
Lab 41
LD 40
Con 13
UKIP 6
Wigan MBC, Pemberton
Lab 68
CAP 11
UKIP 8
Con 7
BNP 6
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Post by greatkingrat on Apr 4, 2013 0:02:59 GMT
KNOWSLEY (Prescot East) - Lab 59, LD 36, Con 3
KNOWSLEY (Prescot West) - LD 42, Lab 40, TUSC 9, Con 5, Grn 4
KNOWSLEY (St Michaels) - Lab 90, LD 8, Con 2
NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE - UKIP 40, Con 37, Lab 18, LD 5
NOTTINGHAM (Bilborough) - Lab 59, Con 17, LD 10, UKIP 9, Grn 4, Elvis 1
NOTTINGHAM (Wollaton E) - Lab 42, Con 26, LD 22, UKIP 10
WIGAN - Lab 73, CA 10, Con 7, UKIP 6, BNP 4
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Apr 4, 2013 7:10:25 GMT
Knowsley MB, Prescot East: L 62.5, LD 32.5, C 5.0.
Knowsley MB, Prescot West: L 51.1, LD 36.3, TUSC 5.2, C 4.6, G 2.8.
Knowsley MB, St Michaels: L 90.7, LD 6.1, C 3.2.
NE Lincs UA, Humberston & New Waltham: C 36.5, UKIP 33.6, L 21.1, LD 8.8.
Nottingham UA, Bilborough: L 64.0, C 15.1, UKIP 11.7, LD 7.1, G 1.3, ELPP 0.8.
Nottingham UA, Wollaton E & Lenton Abbey: L 46.0, LD 20.0, C 19.9, UKIP 14.1.
Wigan MB, Pemberton: L 78.1, CA 7.7, C 6.2, UKIP 6.0, BNP 2.0.
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Post by hempie on Apr 4, 2013 7:54:13 GMT
Knowsley, Prescot East: Lab 66, LD 30,Con 4
Knowsley, Prescot West: Lab 47, LD 37, TUSC 9, Con 4, Green 3
Knowsley, St Michaels: Lab 85, LD 12, Con 3
NE Lincs, Humberstone & New Waltham: UKIP 35, Con 33, Lab 22, LD 10
Nottingham, Bilborough: Lab 52,Con 20,UKIP 12, LD 10, Green 5, ELP 1
Nottingham, Wollaton East & Lenton Abbey: Lab 36, LD 34, Con 20, UKIP 10
Wigan, Pemberton: Lab 68, CAP 12, Con 9, UKIP 6, BNP 5
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 4, 2013 8:24:49 GMT
Knowsley Prescot East: Lab 65.1 LD 32.1 Con 2.8 Knowsley Prescot West: Lab 48.9 LD 38.1 TUSC 6.7 Con 3.4 Grn 2.9 Knowsley, St Michaels: Lab 91.2 LD 5.3 Con 3.5 NE Lincs: UKIP 40.8 Con 36.1 Lab 18.1 LD 5.0 Nottingham, Bilborough: Lab 62.8 Con 14.7 UKIP 8.9 LD 7.8 Grn 3.5 Elvis 2.3 Nottingham, Wollaton East and Lenton Abey: Lab 41.8 LD 32.2 Con 18.1 UKIP 7.9 Wigan: Lab 77.3 CA 7.2 UKIP 6.0 Con 5.2 BNP 4.3 |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 4, 2013 8:25:49 GMT
Some interesting variations in predictions so far this week.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 4, 2013 8:30:15 GMT
Knowsley MB - Prescot East Lab 64.1% LD 32.8% Con 3.1% Knowsley MB - Prescot West Lab 47.2% LD 39.6% TUSC 7.6% Con 4.7% Grn 0.9% Knowsley MB - St Michaels Lab 89.7% LD 7.4% Con 2.9% Wigan MB - Pemberton Lab 69.3% UKIP 10.3% CA 8.6% Con 6.2% BNP 5.6% NE Lincolnshire UA - Humberston & New Waltham UKIP 35.6% Con 34.6% Lab 18.6% LD 11.2% Nottingham UA - Bilborough Lab 59.6% Con 16.5% LD 9.6% UKIP 9.3% Grn 2.8% Elvis 2.2% Nottingham UA - Wollaton East & Lenton Abbey Lab 39.2% LD 31.8% Con 23.6% UKIP 5.4% |
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Post by Philip Davies on Apr 4, 2013 8:59:39 GMT
KNOWSLEY - Prescot East Adam BUTLER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 3.0 Carl CASHMAN (Liberal Democrats) 33.9 Steff O'KEEFFE (Labour Party Candidate) 63.1 KNOWSLEY - Prescot West Robert AVERY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 5.2 Robert MBANU (Green Party) 2.0 Lynn O'KEEFFE (Labour Party Candidate) 44.0 Ian SMITH (Liberal Democrats) 40.0 Stephen WHATHAM (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 8.8 KNOWSLEY - St Michaels Mike CURRIE (Liberal Democrats) 8 David DUNNE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 1.4 Vickie LAMB (Labour Party Candidate) 90.6 NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE - Humberston and New Waltham Harry HALL (Conservative Party) 34.1 Stephen HARNESS (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 40.2 Ashley SMITH (Labour Party Candidate) 20.6 Stephen STEAD (Liberal Democrats) 5.1 NOTTINGHAM - Bilborough David BISHOP (Elvis Loves Pets Party) 0.5 Katharina BOETTGE (Green Party) 2.0 John CALVERT (Liberal Democrats) 7.0 Ian CULLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 17.0 Irenea MARRIOTT (UK Independence Party) 10 Wendy SMITH (The Labour Party Candidate) 63.5 NOTTINGHAM - Wollaton East and Lenton Abbey Jeanna PARTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20 Tony SUTTON (Liberal Democrats) 32 Andrew TAYLOR (UK Independence Party) 8 Sam WEBSTER (The Labour Party Candidate) 40 WIGAN - Pemberton Jonathan CARTWRIGHT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 5.5 Peter FRANZEN (Community Action Party) 10.3 Alan FREEMAN (UK Independence Party) 16.9 Sam MURPHY (The Labour Party Candidate) 63.4 Dennis SHAMBLEY (British National Party) 3.9 |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 4, 2013 9:15:45 GMT
I wonder if some predictors have got UKIP goggles. Their two wins in March were in good UKIP areas but the byelections today are not.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 4, 2013 9:18:50 GMT
I wonder if some predictors have got UKIP goggles. Their two wins in March were in good UKIP areas but the byelections today are not. They got 35% in the NE Lincs seat last May, so that looks a reasonably good bet for a gain. Otherwise, yes, I'd tend to agree that predicting 4 UKIP gains from this weeks contests is maybe not tremendously likely. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 4, 2013 9:35:39 GMT
Quite. I think one person has UKIP goggles on. NE Lincs is a very good area for the party, the others clearly not
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 4, 2013 10:11:27 GMT
It's a pretty good area for the party, and the candidate was a PPC in 2010, getting a decent enough result. What I've found online doesn't come across as unusually odd for a UKIP candidate (i.e. he does use the acronym EUSSR, but not incessantly) so I would presume there's some basic competence there.
I did find the idea that UKIP would win a ward that is two-thirds students by population (though obviously not by local election voters) amusing, so I'm grateful for that.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 4, 2013 11:19:55 GMT
With regards to the LD prospects - I'm obviously in a minority this week in not backing them to make a gain from Labour, but if they were to my thinking is that Nottingham might actually be a better bet than Knowsley.
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