Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 4, 2013 12:09:46 GMT
Of the 12 entries visible:
Prescot East: Unanimous Labour hold with LD second. Labour vote share ranges from 75 (Just Looking) to 58 (Erlend)
Prescot West: 7 Labour holds with majority over LDs ranging from 15 (EAL) to 3 (mark). 5 LD gains with majority over Labour ranging from 12 (Erlend) to 1 (dibs and Robert W).
St Michaels: Unanimous Labour hold with vote shares ranging from 75 (Just Looking) to 91.2 (tonyotim)
NE Lincs: 9 UKIP gains from Con with majorities ranging from 9 (EAL and Just Looking. 3 Conservative holds, 2 with UKIP second by 2.9 (Arthur) and 15 (dibs), 1 with Labour second by 25% (Erlend)
Bilborough: Just Looking out on his own with a UKIP gain. Two have UKIP second to Labour by 46 + 45% (Robert W + EAL). The rest of us have Labour majorities over Con ranging from 49 (dibs) to 32 (Hempie)
Wollaton East & Lenten Abbey: Again Just Looking goes for a UKIP gain and Mark has a LD gain by 3%. 9 have Labour majorities over LD ranging from 1 (EAL) to 40 (dibs). Greatkingrat has the conservatives in second.
Wigan: And another UKIP gain for Just Looking. The rest of us have Labour holds with vote shares ranging from 63 (Robert W) to 78.1 (Arthur). Most have Community Action second (or joint second in Erlend's case). 3 (Robert, Pete and Phil) have UKIP second.
On the basis of the wisdom of crowds I'd back Pete and Phil to have the top two slots this week as they have none of the extremes.
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 4, 2013 22:23:26 GMT
Knowsley MB, Prescot East
greatlkingrat 4.3+2 (only 98%) faults, Mark Senior 6.3, erlend 6.6, Arthur Figgis 9.3, East Anglian Lefty 10.3, PhilDav 10.5, Robert Waller 12.3, Pete Whitehead 12.5, Dibs 14.3, tonyotim 14.5, hempie 16.3, Just Looking 34.3
Knowsley MB, Prescot West
PhilDav 2.0 faults, Mark Senior 5.2, Pete Whitehead 6.7, hempie 10.4, tonyotim 13.1, East Anglian Lefty 13.5, Arthur Figgis 17.3, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 10.0+10, Dibs 11.4+10, erlend 23.9+10, Just Looking 30.1+10
Knowsley MB, St Michael
Dibs & erlend 2.5 faults, Mark Senior 5.2, hempie 6.5, East Anglian Lefty 7.2, Pete Whitehead 8.0, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 8.6, PhilDav 9.8, Arthur Figgis 10.0, tonyotim 11.0, Just Looking 21.4
and for the three Knowsley MB contests:
Mark Senior 16.6 faults, Phildav 22.4, Pete Whitehead 27.2, East Anglian Lefty 31.0, hempie 33.2, greatkingrat 34.9, Arthur Figgis 36.7, Dibs 38.2, tonyotim 38.7, Robert Waller 40.9, erlend 43.0, Just Looking 95.7
North East Lincolnshire UA, Humberston & New Waltham
Just Looking 9.7 faults, East Anglian Lefty 13.7, Pete Whitehead 14.1, Robert Waller 15.8, tonyotim 16.1, PhilDav 17.1, greatkingrat & hempie 17.7, Mark Senior 19.7, Arthur Figgis 22.9+10, Dibs 37.7+10, erlend 57.7+10
Nottingham UA, Bilborough
Robert Waller 10.4 faults, erlend 14.7, East Anglian Lefty 16.1, Dibs 16.3, Arthur Figgis 20.7, tonyotim 23.2, Phildav 24.3, Pete Whitehead 30.2, greatkingrat 30.3, Mark Senior 30.6, hempie 37.3, Just Looking 66.5+10
Nottingham UA, Wollaton East & Lenton Abbey
erlend 11.8 faults, Robert Waller 15.7, tonyotim 22.1, East Anglian Lefty 24.4, Dibs 24.7, PhilDav 25.7, Pete Whitehead 29.2, hempie 33.7, Arthur Figgis 35.8, greatkingrat 39.8, Mark Senior 35.7+10, Just Looking 59.8+10
Wigan MB, Pemberton
Robert Waller 13.2 faults, PhilDav 14.8, Mark Senior 27.7, Pete Whitehead 31.4, East Anglian Lefty 31.7, Dibs 34.4, hempie 35.7, erlend 35.9, greatkingrat 37.2, tonyotim 42.8, Arthur Figgis 44.5, Just Looking 53.4+10
and for the first week of April - subject to verification Friday afternoon:
96.0 Robert Waller
104.3 PhilDav
116.8 East Anglian Lefty
132.1 Pete Whitehead
140.4 Mark Senior
142.9 tonyotim
157.7 hempie
159.9 greatkingrat
161.3 Dibs
170.5 Arthur Figgis
173.0 erlend
315.1 Just looking
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 5, 2013 5:50:02 GMT
first or last nothing changes. ;o)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 5, 2013 7:25:59 GMT
Well done to Robert and Phil for this week. It looks like I should put my UKIP goggles on as my relatively poor performance was mostly down to underestimating them
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 5, 2013 10:27:21 GMT
I actually passed through Bilborough and Wollaton yesterday, but I can't claim that did me any good as I saw absolutely no evidence of byelection activity!
What I did believe was that UKIP would do quite well at the moment in working class areas like Pemberton and Bilborough, both of which I know reasonably well. It is a myth that their vote is composed of disaffected Tories.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 5, 2013 10:33:49 GMT
It is a myth that their vote is composed of disaffected Tories. If you had inserted "just/solely" in there I would have totally agreed with you. As it is, I think that is a bit sweeping...... |
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 5, 2013 15:28:05 GMT
The solely was implied.
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 5, 2013 15:50:07 GMT
Earlier figures are now confirmed. Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday.
Three contests next week, 1 on Wednesday and 2 on Thursday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the contest.
We are going for a short break next week, sunning ourselves by the coast!!! Will catch up on our return Friday evening.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 5, 2013 16:56:20 GMT
Congratulations to Robert for the week!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 5, 2013 18:42:47 GMT
I think you should get 10 additional wrong winner faults for incorrectly predicting the winner of this week's competition!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 5, 2013 19:50:02 GMT
I think you should get 10 additional wrong winner faults for incorrectly predicting the winner of this week's competition!  It wouldn't actually make all that much difference, tbh. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 7, 2013 20:57:03 GMT
10TH APRIL
LUTON - Wigmore (Liberal Democrat died)
John MAGILL (Independent) 3%
Lance RICHARDSON (UK Independence Party) 16
Marc SCHEIMANN (Green Party candidate) 3
Alan SKEPELHORN (Liberal Democrat) 37
James TAYLOR (The Labour Party Candidate) 26
John YOUNG (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2013 21:08:12 GMT
10TH APRIL
LUTON - Wigmore (Liberal Democrat died)
John MAGILL (Independent) 1
Lance RICHARDSON (UK Independence Party) 25
Marc SCHEIMANN (Green Party candidate) 1
Alan SKEPELHORN (Liberal Democrat) 37
James TAYLOR (The Labour Party Candidate) 21
John YOUNG (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 8, 2013 21:24:09 GMT
10TH APRIL LUTON - Wigmore (Liberal Democrat died) John MAGILL (Independent) 1 Lance RICHARDSON (UK Independence Party) 25 Marc SCHEIMANN (Green Party candidate) 1 Alan SKEPELHORN (Liberal Democrat) 37 James TAYLOR (The Labour Party Candidate) 21 John YOUNG (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15 You restrained yourself from going for the UKIP gain this time, then  |
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Post by hempie on Apr 9, 2013 7:51:23 GMT
Luton, Wigmore: LD 38, Lab 23, UKIP 18, Con 16, Green 3, Ind 2
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Post by Robert Waller on Apr 10, 2013 0:41:33 GMT
11TH APRIL
DARLINGTON - Lascelles (Labour died)
Lewis CAIRNS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20
Helen CRUMBIE (The Labour Party Candidate) 70
Howard JONES (Liberal Democrat) 10
PEMBROKESHIRE - Burton (Independent resigned)
Jon HARVEY (Independent) 20
Robin HOWELLS (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 20
Rob SUMMONS (Independent) 40
Robin WILSON (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 20
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Post by marksenior on Apr 10, 2013 7:01:18 GMT
Luton LD 41 Lab 25 Con 16 UKIP 12 Green 4 Ind 2
Darlington Lab 66 Con 23 LD 11
Pembroke Ind S 38 Ind H 26 Lab 22 Con 14
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Apr 10, 2013 7:02:34 GMT
Luton, Wigmore: LD 31.1, L 28.9, C 19.8, UKIP 14.3, Ind 3.7, G 2.2.
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Post by greatkingrat on Apr 10, 2013 7:34:04 GMT
LUTON - LD 38, Lab 20, Con 17, UKIP 13, Ind 9, Grn 3
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 10, 2013 7:46:46 GMT
Luton Wigmore
LD 36.3
Lab 25.7
UKIP 16.5
Con 15.9
Ind 3.8
Grn 1.8
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