The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 2, 2023 9:16:23 GMT
Nonsense. Excess bounce is sign of poor sample cleaning. One week your respondents are too logged on - too aware of the news - and the next it's oversaturated with low attention voters (potentially why People Polling has higher than avg numbers for Ref + Grn, though unsure on that front). Perhaps you should learn to read. Excess bounce is obviously a problem but total lack of bounce indicates herding which for me is a greater problem in polling than the odd outlier. Hence my comment that "Any pollster that isn't a bit bouncy should be viewed with suspicion". Whatever else you can say about current pollsters, I don't think herding appears to be much of a problem just now. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 2, 2023 12:00:21 GMT
Rap battles of history: EastMidsRight vs. Britain Elects. Who wins? You decide!
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Post by andrewp on Apr 6, 2023 17:58:41 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Apr 14, 2023 13:27:00 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 48% (+2)
CON: 25% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
REF: 7% (-)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @omnisis, 12 - 13 Apr
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Post by andrewp on Apr 21, 2023 13:36:54 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Apr 30, 2023 9:27:53 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 7, 2023 9:30:35 GMT
Their latest has the Labour lead back up to 21 - on the high side yes, but given that the local election polling from them (and indeed Survation and YouGov) was quite close to the results it suggests that Labour's supposedly "underwhelming" performance is consistent with bigger leads when it comes to a GE.
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Post by andrewp on May 12, 2023 14:52:22 GMT
First Labour 50 for a while
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Post by stodge on May 12, 2023 17:16:09 GMT
Just crunched the Omnisis numbers - a 19.5% swing from Conservative to Labour on December 2019. That makes the 274th most marginal Conservative seat, Harwich & Essex North, vulnerable. To win that seat and overturn Bernard Jenkin's 20,000 majority, Labour needs a swing of 19.4%.
To be gaining seats at that level with UNS makes the word landslide seem completely inappropriate. It would be a 1931 style result (that saw a swing of just under 12% from Labour to Conservative) with the Conservatives below 100 seats and Labour at 450 or higher.
Just a bit of fun for a Friday evening.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 12, 2023 17:21:04 GMT
Just crunched the Omnisis numbers - a 19.5% swing from Conservative to Labour on December 2019. That makes the 274th most marginal Conservative seat, Harwich & Essex North, vulnerable. To win that seat and overturn Bernard Jenkin's 20,000 majority, Labour needs a swing of 19.4%. To be gaining seats at that level with UNS makes the word landslide seem completely inappropriate. It would be a 1931 style result (that saw a swing of just under 12% from Labour to Conservative) with the Conservatives below 100 seats and Labour at 450 or higher. Just a bit of fun for a Friday evening. "Remember, folks, it's your vote that counts and the clapometer is only for fun ...". Opinion polls, at this stage of a Parliament, are equivalent to the clapometer. |
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Post by batman on May 12, 2023 18:50:11 GMT
It is surely an outlier, and quite a major one at that, unless and until it is corroborated by other polls. This is on top of what appears to be an existing house effect for Omnisis who are giving Labour, generally, its largest leads in recent times.
However, it does confirm the trend in other polls that Labour's lead has widened again after a period of distinct narrowing. If this should be at least broadly borne out in other polls, and Labour's average lead goes back up to 20% or very close to it, it does make the Tories' task in avoiding a Labour majority even more difficult than it was already seen to be.
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Post by mattbewilson on May 12, 2023 19:25:48 GMT
Guess it depends on how long the bounce lasts
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Post by finsobruce on May 12, 2023 20:16:56 GMT
Guess it depends on how long the bounce lasts |
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Post by batman on May 12, 2023 20:22:58 GMT
so, 63 years. That'll do us.
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Post by andrewp on May 19, 2023 10:16:49 GMT
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Post by batman on May 19, 2023 12:08:45 GMT
a reversion to close to their norm. Their last poll was an obvious outlier.
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Post by robert1 on May 26, 2023 16:14:31 GMT
Con 28 (+3)
Lab 47 =
LD 10 =
Ref 5 =
Grn 5 =
SNP 3 =
Fieldwork 25th-26th May
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Post by batman on Jun 4, 2023 9:10:47 GMT
Lab 46 C 25 LD 10 Green 7 Reform 6 SNP 3. Fieldwork 1-2 June. Sample size 1,351
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 4, 2023 9:46:36 GMT
Notably low for the Tories by recent standards.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 10, 2023 12:58:48 GMT
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