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Post by andrewp on Jun 16, 2023 14:34:39 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Jun 23, 2023 18:13:32 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (-1)
CON: 27% (+1)
LDM: 9% (-1)
GRN: 6% (=)
RFM: 6% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @omnisis, 22-23 Jun.
Changes w/ 15-16 Jun.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2023 9:12:46 GMT
Heh, almost predictable.
And with the latest Ipsos-MORI and YouGov out, Omnisis no longer shows the biggest Labour lead!
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Post by andrewp on Jun 30, 2023 16:51:58 GMT
LAB: 48% (+1)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM: 8% (-1)
RFM: 7% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
Via @omnisis, 29-30 Jun.
Changes w/ 22-23 Jun.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 7, 2023 13:44:07 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2023 9:28:27 GMT
First poll with Labour reaching 50% since when?
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Post by andrewp on Jul 14, 2023 14:12:32 GMT
A correction back towards the average?
LAB: 47% (-4)
CON: 25% (=)
LDM: 10% (+2)
RFM: 6% (+1)
GRN: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @omnisis, 13-14 Jul.
Changes w/ 6-7 Jul.
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 21, 2023 15:30:15 GMT
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Post by swanarcadian on Jul 28, 2023 16:14:07 GMT
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2023 16:29:54 GMT
ominous from Omnisis
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2023 16:31:13 GMT
The Conservatives must have hoped that their hold in Uxbridge & S Ruislip would enable them to grab the narrative a bit. They certainly tried to. But it doesn't really seem to have worked and the polls remain fairly much where they have been in recent weeks. Today's polls so far are generally very satisfactory for Labour.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,916
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 28, 2023 18:55:59 GMT
The Conservatives must have hoped that their hold in Uxbridge & S Ruislip would enable them to grab the narrative a bit. They certainly tried to. But it doesn't really seem to have worked and the polls remain fairly much where they have been in recent weeks. Today's polls so far are generally very satisfactory for Labour. I think that's true, with the other side being that there's not much of a sign of a boost for either Labour or Lib Dems so far from their by-election gains either... pretty much as you were. |
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2023 19:17:19 GMT
Yes the changes are generally minor except for that so-called Red Wall poll.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 28, 2023 19:23:08 GMT
The Conservatives must have hoped that their hold in Uxbridge & S Ruislip would enable them to grab the narrative a bit. They certainly tried to. But it doesn't really seem to have worked and the polls remain fairly much where they have been in recent weeks. Today's polls so far are generally very satisfactory for Labour. I think that's true, with the other side being that there's not much of a sign of a boost for either Labour or Lib Dems so far from their by-election gains either... pretty much as you were. Do we think that parties necessarily get a boost from by election wins? Aren't the results really a confirmation of the boost that the parties have already had? There probably are some people who might switch based on the result (s) (the nothing succeeds like success idea) but by this stage of the game the dye is mostly already cast.
discuss. or not.  |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 28, 2023 19:57:09 GMT
A bit of a chicken and egg discussion..which just leaves me feeling...um hungry!
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2023 20:36:46 GMT
The song Mother and Child Reunion by Paul Simon was inspired by him noticing a chicken & egg dish on a restaurant menu.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,085 
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Post by Sg1 on Jul 30, 2023 13:50:48 GMT
I think that's true, with the other side being that there's not much of a sign of a boost for either Labour or Lib Dems so far from their by-election gains either... pretty much as you were. Do we think that parties necessarily get a boost from by election wins? Aren't the results really a confirmation of the boost that the parties have already had? There probably are some people who might switch based on the result (s) (the nothing succeeds like success idea) but by this stage of the game the dye is mostly already cast.
discuss. or not. I think for minor parties, the revelation that they are capable of winning an election encourages more public support, hence UKIP gaining support in the polls shortly after achieving strong by election results. I could see a similar phenomenon for the Greens in future. |
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Post by woollyliberal on Jul 30, 2023 14:09:36 GMT
I think that's true, with the other side being that there's not much of a sign of a boost for either Labour or Lib Dems so far from their by-election gains either... pretty much as you were. Do we think that parties necessarily get a boost from by election wins? Aren't the results really a confirmation of the boost that the parties have already had? There probably are some people who might switch based on the result (s) (the nothing succeeds like success idea) but by this stage of the game the dye is mostly already cast.
discuss. or not. The Lib Dems got polling boost after Chesham and after Shropshire. ISTR that the boost came just before Tiverton in expectation of the result. There hasn't been one for Somerton yet. If there isn't anything this week, the effect has gone. Lib Dems winning by-elections isn't news any more. |
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Post by stodge on Jul 30, 2023 14:51:46 GMT
Do we think that parties necessarily get a boost from by election wins? Aren't the results really a confirmation of the boost that the parties have already had? There probably are some people who might switch based on the result (s) (the nothing succeeds like success idea) but by this stage of the game the dye is mostly already cast.
discuss. or not. The Lib Dems got polling boost after Chesham and after Shropshire. ISTR that the boost came just before Tiverton in expectation of the result. There hasn't been one for Somerton yet. If there isn't anything this week, the effect has gone. Lib Dems winning by-elections isn't news any more. Needless to say, neutralising any post by-election "boost" was part of the Conservative strategy to hold all three contests a) on the same day and b) the same day as Parliament rose for the Summer Recess. It also limited the opportunity for dissident MPs at Westminster to plot or scheme as Parliament was in recess and everyone was back in their constituencies with activists who tend to be loyal to the current leader. Had the Tories lost all three (and say had a 15% swing against them in Uxbridge) you'd have seen all the speculation about Sunak's leadership. Either way, it was going to overshadow the LD success - the post-result narrative was all Uxbridge - Somerton barely got a look in. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 31, 2023 8:44:15 GMT
Last summer Tiverton/Honiton had at least equal billing to Wakefield. This time round, Somerton came a clear third behind both Uxbridge and Selby.
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