Omnisis

[Sibboleth]

I don't care how 'kindly' they were asked, wording like that will not produce meaningful figures on any issue.

[matureleft]

Have the tables behind this been published? The data is presented in binary form - you agree or you don’t. I’m assuming they’ll have had other answers?

[hullenedge]

Aug 13, 2024 14:10:28 GMT matureleft said:

Have the tables behind this been published? The data is presented in binary form - you agree or you don’t. I’m assuming they’ll have had other answers?

Tables etc.

[aargauer]

Aug 13, 2024 13:34:08 GMT The Bishop said:

Aug 13, 2024 10:50:53 GMT aargauer said:

I question the assumption that people would be more positive about "refugees" than "immigrants". I would expect the reverse.

Yes that is my assumption as well - all but a hard core of racists (the same 5-10% who backed the riots) have little or no problem with legal and managed immigration.

I think that's overegged, people have a lot of a problem with the levels of legal migration, but there's also a recognition that many of these people add something (I think self evidently correctly) and that our demographics need propping up (I *strongly* disagree with this Ponzi argument)

[hullenedge]

[cogload]

As you can imagine the usual suspects have latched onto this.

[nyx]

Aug 15, 2024 11:22:36 GMT hullenedge said:

I find the "preferred PM" poll interesting

Starmer 26%, Farage 20%, Sunak 10%, Davey 5%, Denyer 2%, Ramsay 2%, none of them 20%, don't know 15%

Not a lot of enthusiasm for any of them

[aargauer]

You can feel any sense of positivity about the new government dying without any sense of recovery yet by the Tories

[hengog]

Aug 20, 2024 10:53:01 GMT aargauer said:

You can feel any sense of positivity about the new government dying without any sense of recovery yet by the Tories

To be fair, it’s quite difficult with Parliament not sitting and the party inevitably and rightly looking inwards for a while. The test will come in the weeks and months following the election of the new leader. In the meantime, as the rather lukewarm, to begin with,  enthusiasm for Labour evaporates, it would be a little worrying if Reform, should that one poll mean anything, gain momentum. 

[timmullen]

Aug 20, 2024 11:47:57 GMT hengog said:

Aug 20, 2024 10:53:01 GMT aargauer said:

You can feel any sense of positivity about the new government dying without any sense of recovery yet by the Tories

To be fair, it’s quite difficult with Parliament not sitting and the party inevitably and rightly looking inwards for a while. The test will come in the weeks and months following the election of the new leader. In the meantime, as the rather lukewarm, to begin with,  enthusiasm for Labour evaporates, it would be a little worrying if Reform, should that one poll mean anything, gain momentum. 

And equally the government itself hasn’t had the opportunity to do anything tangible other than reach agreement with junior doctors and ASLEF, added to the unpopular Winter Fuel Allowance announcement (which, FWIW, I don’t think will survive as far as the autumn budget). Added to which Starmer has never been particularly personally popular - after the initial honeymoon in 2020 has he ever reached 40% - so I suspect these numbers aren’t significantly different than those on 3 July before the election.

[The Bishop]

Aug 20, 2024 10:53:01 GMT aargauer said:

You can feel any sense of positivity about the new government dying without any sense of recovery yet by the Tories

The recent couple of VI polls were taken when rioting was still a live issue, which is unlikely to help government poll ratings - even if many have little sympathy with the unrest. A more recent effort by Savanta (though it has no VI figures) says over half thought Starmer handled them well, as opposed to 30-something per cent badly. Which is roughly a reversal of what YouGov claimed whilst the trouble was at its height.

[hengog]

Of course one always has to try to take account of one’s own prejudices , which can be difficult, but I can’t see any likelihood other than increased scepticism and unpopularity ahead for the government. There are those reasons you give , but unless , as I think you hint, they row back on the Winter fuel allowance announcement- which I can’t see happening myself, I cannot think of any likely wins for them in the short term.
There is now an inevitable and steady flow of critical stories concerning Ministers. When these were about Tories - and many people can’t remember anything else- it played into the theme of Tory sleaze. Now it’s new Labour ministers enjoying the perks- and they are with some enthusiasm , whether its appointing chums to juicy jobs, jetting about the world, prime seats at sporting and cultural events , etc most people will react in the usual way - “ they’re all the same “ and so on. But some will genuinely have thought that this normal human behaviour was something specific attached to the last lot of Ministers , something to do with being Tories, and expected purer ( puritan?) values from these and will remember how in opposition they denounced the ministers concerned.

And I can’t see anything likely to be in the budget or the legislative programme which doesn’t, at this point , look like other than cheering to the opposition. The more difficult forecast being which opposition will most benefit?

[The Bishop]

Starmer's ratings are significantly better than Johnson's the same time after the 2019 GE, that is simply a fact.

But....what happened just after then? Something completely unseen and unforeseeable - which gave him and the government a hefty boost.

Events happen, and we shouldn't presume that their effect is inevitably just one way. There will be opportunities for our new PM to impress as well as disappoint.

[islington]

Aug 20, 2024 12:36:56 GMT hengog said:

Of course one always has to try to take account of one’s own prejudices , which can be difficult, but I can’t see any likelihood other than increased scepticism and unpopularity ahead for the government. There are those reasons you give , but unless , as I think you hint, they row back on the Winter fuel allowance announcement- which I can’t see happening myself, I cannot think of any likely wins for them in the short term.
There is now an inevitable and steady flow of critical stories concerning Ministers. When these were about Tories - and many people can’t remember anything else- it played into the theme of Tory sleaze. Now it’s new Labour ministers enjoying the perks- and they are with some enthusiasm , whether its appointing chums to juicy jobs, jetting about the world, prime seats at sporting and cultural events , etc most people will react in the usual way - “ they’re all the same “ and so on. But some will genuinely have thought that this normal human behaviour was something specific attached to the last lot of Ministers , something to do with being Tories, and expected purer ( puritan?) values from these and will remember how in opposition they denounced the ministers concerned.

And I can’t see anything likely to be in the budget or the legislative programme which doesn’t, at this point , look like other than cheering to the opposition. The more difficult forecast being which opposition will most benefit?

With a big majority and five years (practically) until the next GE must be called, if Starmer and his colleagues are sensible they will focus on getting all the painful and politically difficult decisions out of the way as soon as possible, so that the benefits (assuming there are any) have time to become evident to the voters in good time for 2029. In this context, short-term unpopularity, even if it results in poor local election results and lost byelections, is not necessarily a concern.

One of the Tories' many problems in the last Parliament was that their popularity peaked far too soon - take the Hartlepool byelection in May 2021 as symbolizing this - and it is arguable that this led to delusions of invincibility so that they felt able to hand out plums to their pals, party their way through a pandemic (and lie about it), and seek to subvert Parliamentary standards.

(I say 'it is arguable' because it is equally (and to my mind more convincingly) arguable that the Tories' popularity made little difference because Johnson's inveterate self-indulgence, corruption and mendacity would have caused him to behave in much the same way even if he'd been miles behind in the polls.)

[aargauer]

Aug 20, 2024 12:40:29 GMT The Bishop said:

Starmer's ratings are significantly better than Johnson's the same time after the 2019 GE, that is simply a fact.

But....what happened just after then? Something completely unseen and unforeseeable - which gave him and the government a hefty boost.

Events happen, and we shouldn't presume that their effect is inevitably just one way. There will be opportunities for our new PM to impress as well as disappoint.

I think its hard to dislike him as a person, and personally I really hate Boris.

Nevertheless, parties are about an awful lot more than like or dislike of the leader, and whilst there is basically outright contempt of the tory party, there is not even a Cameron era level of enthusiasm never mind a Blair era level about the government.

They are still miles infront of the tories - I think this situation is rather unique. Its perhaps most similar to 2019 in reverse, but no true precedent.

[batman]

The fact is that Labour doesn't necessarily need to be particularly loved to remain capable of retaining power at the next election and quite possibly beyond. The increase in support for smaller parties will not necessarily lead to a major increase in their number of parliamentary seats. There remains a possibility that Labour won't actually get all that unpopular this parliament which some contributors have rather lazily assumed they will. The Tories' priority from their point of view needs to be winning seats & eventually power, not comforting themselves about how loved or unloved the Labour Government is. There are reasons for their lousy general election performance & they need to acquaint themselves with these reasons if they are to fight back effectively.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 20, 2024 11:54:46 GMT timmullen said:

Aug 20, 2024 11:47:57 GMT hengog said:

To be fair, it’s quite difficult with Parliament not sitting and the party inevitably and rightly looking inwards for a while. The test will come in the weeks and months following the election of the new leader. In the meantime, as the rather lukewarm, to begin with,  enthusiasm for Labour evaporates, it would be a little worrying if Reform, should that one poll mean anything, gain momentum. 

And equally the government itself hasn’t had the opportunity to do anything tangible other than reach agreement with junior doctors and ASLEF, added to the unpopular Winter Fuel Allowance announcement (which, FWIW, I don’t think will survive as far as the autumn budget). Added to which Starmer has never been particularly personally popular - after the initial honeymoon in 2020 has he ever reached 40% - so I suspect these numbers aren’t significantly different than those on 3 July before the election.

I suspect the winter fuel allowance will go. She's trailed it so far in advance that anything else would look like an early climbdown. It's also an easy signal to the bond market that she's not planning to just throw cash about. Plus, if not now, when? The political capital will never be this high again.

[timmullen]

Aug 20, 2024 14:50:30 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Aug 20, 2024 11:54:46 GMT timmullen said:

And equally the government itself hasn’t had the opportunity to do anything tangible other than reach agreement with junior doctors and ASLEF, added to the unpopular Winter Fuel Allowance announcement (which, FWIW, I don’t think will survive as far as the autumn budget). Added to which Starmer has never been particularly personally popular - after the initial honeymoon in 2020 has he ever reached 40% - so I suspect these numbers aren’t significantly different than those on 3 July before the election.

I suspect the winter fuel allowance will go. She's trailed it so far in advance that anything else would look like an early climbdown. It's also an easy signal to the bond market that she's not planning to just throw cash about. Plus, if not now, when? The political capital will never be this high again.

My guess is a middle ground will be found; maybe universality to those over 75 or follow Scotland and introduce a means test.

[aargauer]

Aug 20, 2024 14:32:03 GMT batman said:

The fact is that Labour doesn't necessarily need to be particularly loved to remain capable of retaining power at the next election and quite possibly beyond. The increase in support for smaller parties will not necessarily lead to a major increase in their number of parliamentary seats. There remains a possibility that Labour won't actually get all that unpopular this parliament which some contributors have rather lazily assumed they will. The Tories' priority from their point of view needs to be winning seats & eventually power, not comforting themselves about how loved or unloved the Labour Government is. There are reasons for their lousy general election performance & they need to acquaint themselves with these reasons if they are to fight back effectively.

There's not much the Tories can do other than wait for time to heal and for Labour to do something unpopular. Absolutely nobody is listening or interested in what the Tories have to say including me.

I don't see Labour losing the next one without a significant misstep.

[hengog]

Some good points, especially about getting the unpopular stuff done early, but also a few typically rose tinted opinions . I suppose it will depend on three main factors: how the economy performs, how any legislation is perceived , and how ministers, especially the PM , are seen to handle “events” .

And of course, we will probably -without any of us having overpowering evidence - disagree on all three.

On the economy ,despite Reeves increasingly unconvincing tale of woe, they are well placed , provided a) they don’t screw things up and b) there are no external shocks. In the absence of those , Labour can be safely assuming people will forget they actually inherited a robust position and give them the credit ( as happened with Blair/Brown) if we have a few years of reasonable prosperity. I don’t expect Labourites to agree with me but I think they are already well on the way to screwing things up ( several reasons but the main ones being the consequences of surrendering to union demands on pay, which I expect to continue, the commitment to net zero and the proposed legislation on employee and Trade Union ‘ rights’). But we’ll see. The shocks are obviously unforeseeable and a matter of luck . After Covid and Ukraine can we hope for a quiet few years? If not - well the brutal political truth is that those in office are always held to blame for any negative impact here.
 
On legislation - is there anything in the pipeline which will both please party members and appeal to the wider public? I don’t know of any and what has been trailed is in my view unlikely to win over any waverers but highly likely to upset various sections of the public. Some of that will depend on delivery - for example will all those upset by planning changes -;for housing , other development such as vast solar farms , giant windmills , pylons etc be outnumbered by passionate “ greens” , those moving into new houses and those finding their energy bills reducing? I’m sceptical, but may be wrong. Other proposals , smacking of wokery of various shades, appeal strongly to small groups , but are disliked by many others whom they tend to regard with contempt , but who have been important factors  in the last two general elections. . 

On handling ‘ events’ I agree Starmer has done well, so far, in terms of his first challenge. It was one on his territory of course. It still has to finish playing out, but it’s a positive start. There will be many to come.