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Post by robert1 on Mar 28, 2024 15:40:24 GMT
Con 25% +1
Lab 44% -3
LD 10% +1
Ref 10% -1
Grn 5% -1
SNP 3% +1
Fieldwork 27th-28th March
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Post by bridgyboy on Mar 28, 2024 17:32:29 GMT
A lead of 19% is fairly consistent with this polling organisation's average over the last 3 months
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261 
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Post by polupolu on Mar 28, 2024 18:11:31 GMT
Electoral Calculus (usual caveats):
Lab 460
Con 104
LD 44
SNP 18
PC 4
Grn 2
Maj 270
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Post by johnloony on Mar 28, 2024 18:12:38 GMT
Electoral Calculus (usual caveats): Lab 460 Con 104 LD 44 SNP 18 PC 4 Grn 2 Maj 270 What ridiculous methodology do they use to get to 2 seats for the Green Party? |
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Post by batman on Mar 28, 2024 18:19:52 GMT
guessadology
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Post by nobodyimportant on Mar 28, 2024 18:25:38 GMT
Electoral Calculus (usual caveats): Lab 460 Con 104 LD 44 SNP 18 PC 4 Grn 2 Maj 270 What ridiculous methodology do they use to get to 2 seats for the Green Party? They seem convinced that Bristol Central is going to be a Green gain. With Labour on 44 percent they predict a Green gain there even if the national Green vote drops from the 2.8 percent they got last time to 1.5 percent. Drop to 1.4 and the greens lose it; on 1.3 they lose Brighton Pavilion. They don't gain a third seat until they're on 20.7 percent of the vote. |
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,261
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Post by polupolu on Mar 28, 2024 18:36:12 GMT
Electoral Calculus (usual caveats): Lab 460 Con 104 LD 44 SNP 18 PC 4 Grn 2 Maj 270 What ridiculous methodology do they use to get to 2 seats for the Green Party? As I say, the usual caveats apply
The two they quote are Brighton (Hold) and Bristol Central (Gain from Lab).
I don't know what their methodology is; but I do note that at the moment the Greens are the largest party in Bristol City Council (24/70 vs Lab 23/70) but Bristol has an "executive" (Labour) Mayor rather than running a more usual set-up. FWIW I was there a few weeks ago and the taxi driver was regaling me with various gripes about the way the city has been run. The Greens came second in Bristol West in 2019 with 24.9% which I assume makes up the bulk of it. Electoral Calculus has the Greens at 48% in their forecast. This may be down to the assumption that the Green vote was 2.8% in 2019 and is 5% in this particular poll (and more like 6% in others elsewhere)
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Post by timmullen on Mar 28, 2024 18:50:56 GMT
What ridiculous methodology do they use to get to 2 seats for the Green Party? As I say, the usual caveats apply
The two they quote are Brighton (Hold) and Bristol Central (Gain from Lab).
I don't know what their methodology is; but I do note that at the moment the Greens are the largest party in Bristol City Council (24/70 vs Lab 23/70) but Bristol has an "executive" (Labour) Mayor rather than running a more usual set-up. FWIW I was there a few weeks ago and the taxi driver was regaling me with various gripes about the way the city has been run. The Greens came second in Bristol West in 2019 with 24.9% which I assume makes up the bulk of it. Electoral Calculus has the Greens at 48% in their forecast. This may be down to the assumption that the Green vote was 2.8% in 2019 and is 5% in this particular poll (and more like 6% in others elsewhere)
I think Redfield and Wilton did one of their constituency videos from there this week and, not knowing if or how it’s weighted at all, found considerable support for the Greens. |
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Omnisis
Apr 12, 2024 16:15:43 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on Apr 12, 2024 16:15:43 GMT
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Omnisis
Apr 12, 2024 16:16:27 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on Apr 12, 2024 16:16:27 GMT
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840
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Post by J.G.Harston on Apr 12, 2024 17:49:53 GMT
How many 15-year-old have got the money to buy a smartphone? |
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 19, 2024 15:46:46 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 26, 2024 15:52:14 GMT
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Omnisis
May 3, 2024 15:56:13 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on May 3, 2024 15:56:13 GMT
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Omnisis
May 10, 2024 16:04:52 GMT
via mobile
Post by hullenedge on May 10, 2024 16:04:52 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on May 17, 2024 15:49:05 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on May 24, 2024 14:21:22 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on May 24, 2024 14:48:15 GMT
Is it just me that thinks the bars on that chart should be (in each pair) the other way around? Because of reading left to right, glancing at that chart makes me think Labour are dropping and the Cons rising. |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 24, 2024 15:04:36 GMT
Is it just me that thinks the bars on that chart should be (in each pair) the other way around? Because of reading left to right, glancing at that chart makes me think Labour are dropping and the Cons rising. As I am not a member of the Liberal Democrats, I don't need a bar chart at all to understand numbers  |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 24, 2024 15:55:14 GMT
Is it just me that thinks the bars on that chart should be (in each pair) the other way around? Because of reading left to right, glancing at that chart makes me think Labour are dropping and the Cons rising. Good god, is that correct? I've been reading all these charts left to right forver, because they're written in English and English goes, well, left to right. |
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