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Post by carlton43 on Jan 6, 2024 2:44:05 GMT
LAB 42 CON 27 REF 9 LD 8 GR 7 SNP 3 PC 1 NI 2 OTH 1 OK. That is a very fair answer, and I doubt you are that far off. Of course you might be exactly right! But it is a snapshot of a moment and opinion rather than action. If there had been an actual GE on the same day I doubt that the result would be the same as the opinion. We have differential TO according to the keenness of each party's supporters to vote. Then realism when faced with a real poll rather than a virtual or pseudo poll. So, LD down a point, Green down 2 points and Ref down 4 points. Say Con 32 and Lab 44 because of a bit of swing and compression on the day. And the effect will be subject to where the major TO is received? Perhaps massive Lab majorities NW and London and hundreds of close calls in the Midlands?
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Omnisis
Jan 6, 2024 8:27:58 GMT
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Post by batman on Jan 6, 2024 8:27:58 GMT
When there is a large swing, it will almost inevitably be a bit bigger in seats not held by the beneficiary of that swing , in this case Labour. There is a limit as to how much stronger Labour can get in seats like Manchester Rusholme and Liverpool Walton. Regionally also Labour is disproportionately strong in much of London. The general consensus is that the swing will hit the Tories hardest in Tory-held seats in the Midlands and the North but will be less large in London, even in some Tory seats there (one example perhaps being Harrow East). The good burghers of Lincolnshire, South Essex and areas close to there (e.g. NE Cambs, the Havering seats) anecdotally appear to be more impervious to Labour’s appeal than average and relatively low swings are widely expected there. Of course there will be local variation too including those where tactical voting for the LDs blunts the nationwide swing.
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Post by bigfatron on Jan 6, 2024 9:24:50 GMT
LAB 42 CON 27 REF 9 LD 8 GR 7 SNP 3 PC 1 NI 2 OTH 1 OK. That is a very fair answer, and I doubt you are that far off. Of course you might be exactly right! Given the Lib Dems (I know that you don't much like them...) have been averaging 11-12% for months, that's likely to be out for some of the minor parties! I'd go with those December polling averages as the best indication, which would be: Labour 43 Tory 26 LDem 11 Reform 9 Green 6 SNP 3 PC 1 Other 1 Worth noting that the current running average is a bit skewed as there are three We Think/Omnisis polls in the last five polls, and they tend to run Reform and Green on the high side. Of course, there appear to be loads of current 'don't knows' though, so we might see some serious changes during any campaign...
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Post by stodge on Jan 6, 2024 20:39:02 GMT
Just for clarity re: @carlton's numbers, We Think, like most pollsters, produces GB numbers not UK numbers.
For the GB numbers, roughly add one to the Labour share and one to the Conservative share so 43-28.
In terms of the Don't Knows, the We Think poll between Christmas and New Year recorded 10% Don't Knows among those likely to vote - many of the DKs are unlikely to vote.
Among those likely to vote, Labour led 40-23 with the DKs on 10 and the LDs and Reform on 9 each.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 12, 2024 16:03:11 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 45% (-2) CON: 23% (-2) LDM: 11% (+2) RFM: 11% (+1) GRN: 5% (=) SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @omnisis, 11-12 Jan. Changes w/ 4-5 Jan.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 20, 2024 10:52:17 GMT
Labour with a 25 point lead (48-23) in their latest.
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Post by coolhandluke on Jan 21, 2024 16:10:55 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention from We Think:
Labour: 48% (+3) Conservative: 23% (=) Reform: 10% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 9% (-2) Greens: 5% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @omnisis, 18-19 January. Changes w/ 11-12 January.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 26, 2024 17:28:07 GMT
LAB: 47% (-1) CON: 23% (=) RFM: 12% (+2) LDM: 9% (=) GRN: 6% (+1) SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @wethinkpolling, 25-26 Jan. Changes w/ 18-19 Jan.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 2, 2024 18:46:23 GMT
LAB: 45% (-2) CON: 23% (=) RFM: 11% (-1) LDM: 9% (=) GRN: 5% (-1) SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @wethinkpolling, 1-2 Feb. Changes w/ 24-25 Jan.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 9, 2024 15:53:02 GMT
LAB: 42% (-3) CON: 26% (+3) LDM: 10% (+1) RFM: 10% (-1) GRN: 6% (+1) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @wethinkpolling, 8-9 Feb. Changes w/ 1-2 Feb.
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Post by hullenedge on Feb 16, 2024 14:21:46 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Feb 23, 2024 14:53:27 GMT
🔴 Lab 44% (-2) 🔵 Con 25% (-1) 🟠 LD 9% (NC) ⚪ Ref 10% (+2) 🟢 Green 6% (NC) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
Fieldwork 22-23 Feb
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Post by timmullen on Mar 1, 2024 15:45:43 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+3) CON: 23% (-2) RFM: 10% (=) LDM: 9% (=) GRN: 5% (-1) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @wethinkpolling, 29 Feb - 1 Mar. Changes w/ 22-23 Feb.
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Post by batman on Mar 1, 2024 21:52:41 GMT
very similar to the poll in late January except Reform 1% lower (may just be rounding). Labour look slightly too high, Tories perhaps slightly too low though it's arguable
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 8, 2024 15:49:30 GMT
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Omnisis
Mar 15, 2024 15:08:47 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 15, 2024 15:08:47 GMT
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Post by gibbon on Mar 15, 2024 17:00:25 GMT
The swing from Reform to Conservative will be hailed in Downing Street as confirmation that the'plan' is working. Others may differ.
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Post by batman on Mar 15, 2024 23:37:30 GMT
it's no more than statistical noise or random sample variation. It's about as informative as looking for political news in the Sunday Sport.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 22, 2024 16:28:14 GMT
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Post by batman on Mar 22, 2024 20:47:05 GMT
Goodness the polls really are brutal for the blue team right now
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