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Post by batman on Nov 17, 2023 19:41:07 GMT
There's always one to break the trend indeed, though I don’t think Labour supporters will be exactly gloomy at such figures
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 17, 2023 19:52:34 GMT
There's always one to break the trend indeed, though I don’t think Labour supporters will be exactly gloomy at such figures It doesn't really look a trend to me anyway, just a little bit of bouncing around within MoE
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Post by batman on Nov 17, 2023 21:13:55 GMT
that's a fair point. There have been several polls which have shown Labour's lead rising a bit, but not hugely & generally within what one would call margin of error. It could just be statistical noise. I suspect that at this stage of November Labour's average poll lead is larger than it was a month ago, though.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Nov 24, 2023 20:27:46 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 44% (-1) CON: 26% (+1) LDM: 12% (+1) RFM: 8% (-2) GRN: 6% (+1) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @wethinkpolling, 23-24 Nov. Changes w/ 16-17 Nov.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 1, 2023 17:27:01 GMT
LAB: 44% (=) CON: 28% (+2) LDM: 9% (-3) RFM: 8% (=) GRN: 6% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @wethinkpolling, 30 Nov - 1 Dec. Changes w/ 23-24 Nov.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 8, 2023 15:58:38 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 45% (+1) CON: 25% (-3) LDM: 11% (+2) RFM: 9% (+1) GRN: 5% (-1) SNP: 2% (-1)
Via @wethinkpolling, 7-8 Dec. Changes w/ 30 Nov - 1 Dec.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 15, 2023 16:22:05 GMT
LAB: 46% (+1) CON: 25% (=) LDM: 10% (-1) RFM: 9% (=) GRN: 5% (=) SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @wethinkpolling, 14-15 Dec. Changes w/ 7-8 Dec.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Dec 22, 2023 14:39:08 GMT
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (-5) CON: 27% (+2) LDM: 12% (+2) RFM: 9% (=) GRN: 6% (+1) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @wethinkpolling, 21-22 Dec. Changes w/ 14-15 Dec.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 4, 2024 13:03:28 GMT
LAB: 43% (+2) CON: 26% (-1) LDM: 11% (-1) RFM: 11% (+2) GRN: 6% (=) SNP: 3% (=)
Via @wethinkpolling, 28-30 Dec. Changes w/ 21-22 Dec.
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Post by gibbon on Jan 5, 2024 10:46:21 GMT
Now we know there will not be an election until the autumn (14 November has been suggested) it will be interesting to see how the media will react. Will the Daily Express or the Daily Mail still be promoting Farage if Reform do become a threat to a Conservative Government. Will these papers start to treat him and Tice as irrelevant and not give him as much publicity? Will Reform really nominate candidates for all constituencies and how many will withdraw shortly before polling day?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 5, 2024 10:54:52 GMT
I do think there is next to zero chance of a mass withdrawal of candidates as in 2019.
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Post by graham on Jan 5, 2024 12:33:55 GMT
I struggle to see Reform being given Major Party status by Ofcom - unlike Ukip in 2015 /2017 and the Brexit party in 2019. Reasonable poll ratings have not been reflected in votes cast at elections - whether Parliamentary by elections or Local Elections. The effect would be to deprive the party of coverage by the main broadcasters during the election campaign and to exclude it from Debates and discussion programmes when held. Minor parties are not represented to any great extent.
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 5, 2024 12:46:55 GMT
Now we know there will not be an election until the autumn (14 November has been suggested) it will be interesting to see how the media will react. Will the Daily Express or the Daily Mail still be promoting Farage if Reform do become a threat to a Conservative Government. Will these papers start to treat him and Tice as irrelevant and not give him as much publicity? Will Reform really nominate candidates for all constituencies and how many will withdraw shortly before polling day? Sunak's phrasing was very careful and deliberate imo. He didnt say there wouldnt be an election in the first half of the year. He actually said it is his "working assumption" that the election would be in the 2nd half of the year. All that that means is, "I'm thinking about and intending to go later in the year, but if circumstances change, i could go sooner". He deliberately didnt rule out an early election, as even some seasoned political commentators seem to be reporting. I saw the pronouncement he made yesterday as having almost zero meaning, but was a useful way of reducing the number of times over the next few weeks where he would be asked at every event/conference "when will you call an election?". I think the odds on an early/late election have barely shifted, despite that announcement. (although I've stated all along that I consider an Oct/Nov election more likely than a May one)
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Post by stodge on Jan 5, 2024 22:07:35 GMT
We have an updated poll from We Think:
Labour: 47% (+4) Conservative: 25% (-1) Reform: 10% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 9% (-2) Greens: 5% (-1)
Fieldwork 2-4 January Changes from the 28-30 December poll.
That's a 22 point Labour lead and a 17% swing from Conservative to Labour.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 5, 2024 23:32:45 GMT
We have an updated poll from We Think: Labour: 47% (+4) Conservative: 25% (-1) Reform: 10% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 9% (-2) Greens: 5% (-1) Fieldwork 2-4 January Changes from the 28-30 December poll. That's a 22 point Labour lead and a 17% swing from Conservative to Labour. Absolute bollocks! But if it makes a few people happy!
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Post by batman on Jan 5, 2024 23:40:00 GMT
We have an updated poll from We Think: Labour: 47% (+4) Conservative: 25% (-1) Reform: 10% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 9% (-2) Greens: 5% (-1) Fieldwork 2-4 January Changes from the 28-30 December poll. That's a 22 point Labour lead and a 17% swing from Conservative to Labour. Absolute bollocks! But if it makes a few people happy! absolute bollocks is too strong. Labour is probably about 2% too high and the Tories about 3% too low. But that’s just my hunch and the poll is not an outlier as other pollsters, including YouGov who are rightly or wrongly regarded as fairly authoritative, have consistently shown pretty similar figures. Labour is undoubtedly in a very large lead, though I tend to think it’s a little less extreme than this.
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 5, 2024 23:46:12 GMT
Absolute bollocks! But if it makes a few people happy! absolute bollocks is too strong. Labour is probably about 2% too high and the Tories about 3% too low. But that’s just my hunch and the poll is not an outlier as other pollsters, including YouGov who are rightly or wrongly regarded as fairly authoritative, have consistently shown pretty similar figures. Labour is undoubtedly in a very large lead, though I tend to think it’s a little less extreme than this. I know that you are in the business and I mean no disrespect to you; but that poll is bollocks.
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Post by batman on Jan 5, 2024 23:50:49 GMT
OK. What would you say is the correct current picture?
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 6, 2024 0:05:46 GMT
OK. What would you say is the correct current picture? LAB 42 CON 27 REF 9 LD 8 GR 7 SNP 3 PC 1 NI 2 OTH 1
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Post by batman on Jan 6, 2024 2:23:41 GMT
OK. What would you say is the correct current picture? LAB 42 CON 27 REF 9 LD 8 GR 7 SNP 3 PC 1 NI 2 OTH 1 OK. That is a very fair answer, and I doubt you are that far off. Of course you might be exactly right!
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