Omnisis

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]

[hullenedge]

[swanarcadian]

Jul 15, 2024 18:24:54 GMT hullenedge said:

Either this is a post election bounce, or the polls are still just as inaccurate as they were three weeks ago. Maybe it’s a bit of both.

[woollyliberal]

Jul 15, 2024 18:24:54 GMT hullenedge said:

This poll looks much like the average of the polling just before the election. The 'change since the election' numbers would be better described as 'error in the polling'.

[swanarcadian]

Some jobsworth on Wikipedia tried to get the page “Opinion polling for the next UK general election” deleted because they thought it was too early to create. The appearance of the first post election poll rather weakens their case.

[cogload]

Oh..bugger off...

[The Bishop]

Jul 15, 2024 18:38:32 GMT woollyliberal said:

Jul 15, 2024 18:24:54 GMT hullenedge said:

This poll looks much like the average of the polling just before the election. The 'change since the election' numbers would be better described as 'error in the polling'.

Except that they are surely weighting to the last GE shares and turnout?

If that is done reasonably well then polling should be fairly accurate, at least for a while.

Of course, when we have a situation like this month *when polls actually affected the result* then its not easy to suggest what to do save not polling at all.

[mattbewilson]

Jul 16, 2024 10:50:22 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 15, 2024 18:38:32 GMT woollyliberal said:

This poll looks much like the average of the polling just before the election. The 'change since the election' numbers would be better described as 'error in the polling'.

Except that they are surely weighting to the last GE shares and turnout?

If that is done reasonably well then polling should be fairly accurate, at least for a while.

Of course, when we have a situation like this month *when polls actually affected the result* then its not easy to suggest what to do save not polling at all.

x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1812905968381952390

[The Bishop]

Hmmm, not sure if everyone would be honest in answering such a question. Anecdotally, you found plenty saying "Labour are going to win easily, so I can vote for who I really want to" all the time - people were even saying it to our canvassers in this previously Tory target seat. How else would they have formed that impression, but for the polls?

[timmullen]

Jul 16, 2024 11:52:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Hmmm, not sure if everyone would be honest in answering such a question. Anecdotally, you found plenty saying "Labour are going to win easily, so I can vote for who I really want to" all the time - people were even saying it to our canvassers in this previously Tory target seat. How else would they have formed that impression, but for the polls?

The general news narrative as well I think - from the day the election was called the mainstream media were treating it as a near as damnit foregone conclusion which I’m sure people must’ve picked up on - just in my patch even Gullis was running the “stop Labour supermajority” line from 10 days in.

[mattbewilson]

I agree, sure I got people say to me you're going to win anyway. But rarely has anyone on the knocker ever mentioned polls

[hullenedge]

We Think polls about the riots:-

[batman]

So who is agreeing with those propositions? They are very extreme ones but the minority agreeing with them is a large one.

[aargauer]

I'm genuinely surprised by those figures, given how extreme those statements are.

Obviously, outside the chattering classes, most do not want to "welcome" refugees (excepting to some extent Ukraine), and do not want them, but I'm amazed so many think physical violence is a solution.

[hullenedge]

I can't see the tables but this is a reputable pollster. Not sure who commissioned the poll. The responses are surprising (to me).

[aargauer]

Aug 13, 2024 9:40:46 GMT hullenedge said:

I can't see the tables but this is a reputable pollster. Not sure who commissioned the poll. The responses are surprising (to me).

I question the assumption that people would be more positive about "refugees" than "immigrants". I would expect the reverse.

[J.G.Harston]

Aug 13, 2024 9:20:44 GMT hullenedge said:

We Think polls about the riots:-

Those charts are difficult to read because the key is actually the opposite way around to the data.

[The Bishop]

Aug 13, 2024 10:50:53 GMT aargauer said:

Aug 13, 2024 9:40:46 GMT hullenedge said:

I can't see the tables but this is a reputable pollster. Not sure who commissioned the poll. The responses are surprising (to me).

I question the assumption that people would be more positive about "refugees" than "immigrants". I would expect the reverse.

Yes that is my assumption as well - all but a hard core of racists (the same 5-10% who backed the riots) have little or no problem with legal and managed immigration.

[hengog]

I wonder if , rather than any reference to immigration at all , how people would respond if asked whether it has been good or bad for the country to have had such a rapid increase in its population over the last decade ( or two).