Prediction Competition - October 2022

[rightleaning]

Broadland. Thorpe St Andrew NW Lab 44, LD 29, Con 27
Fareham. Port Chester East . LD 61, Con 20, Fig 12, Lab 7
Guildford. Tillingbourne. LD 33, Gn 25, Con 19, Res 18, Lab 5
Monmouthshire. Devauden. Lab 39, Con 32, LD 17, Ind 8, Gn 4
St Helens, Moss Bank. Lab 66, LD 28, Con 6

[iainbhx]

Broadland DC, Thorpe St Andrew NW: Con 41, Lab 35, LDm 24
Fareham DC, Portchester E: LDm 55, Con 19, Ind 14, Lab 12
Guildford DC, Tillingbourne: Con 27, LDm 25, Grn 23, R4G 19, Lab 6
Monmouthshire WUA, Devauden: Con 31, LDm 26, Lab 22, Ind 17, Grn 4
St Helens MBC, Moss Bank: Lab 56 LDm 27 Con 17

[robbienicoll]

12 entries this week, all on time but with kevinf receiving 10 faults for only getting to 90 in Broadland.

Thorpe St Andrew North West, Broadland: 5 Labour gain from Conservative, with iainbhx, kevinf, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold, johnloony, meurig and peterl Liberal Democrat gain.

Portchester East, Fareham: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 17% (kevinf) to 41% (Right Leaning).

Tillingbourne, Guildford: 5 Green gain from Conservative, with andrewp, batman, Right Leaning and Robert Waller Liberal Democrat gain, Tony Otim and yellowperil Residents gain and iainbhx Conservative hold.

Devauden, Monmouthshire: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with andrewp, batman, iainbhx and kevinf Conservative hold.

Moss Bank, St Helens: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 28% (andrewp and yellowperil) to 66% (Richard Cromwell).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13q4Nw1Jq5WUtHymE-zp15hJtpsr6CcCY9bWwlIjTd2E/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Very unofficial quick estimates from me, and I know we haven't had the actual numbers from Guildford, but I think batman may have won this week and moved up into second place for the month.

iainbhx still well ahead for the month, of course, after last week's devastating performance.

[yellowperil]

Oct 21, 2022 0:07:27 GMT Robert Waller said:

Very unofficial quick estimates from me, and I know we haven't had the actual numbers from Guildford, but I think batman may have won this week and moved up into second place for the month.

iainbhx still well ahead for the month, of course, after last week's devastating performance.

And as always of course those very unofficial quick estimates were spot on. Congrats to batman  for winning a tricky week.  And once again the class acts of andrewp and Robert Waller are moving up ready to pounce if any of the current front runners fall at the final hurdle.

[John Chanin]

Oct 20, 2022 20:38:17 GMT robbienicoll said:

12 entries this week, all on time but with kevinf receiving 10 faults for only getting to 90 in Broadland.

Thorpe St Andrew North West, Broadland: 5 Labour gain from Conservative, with iainbhx, kevinf, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold, johnloony, meurig and peterl Liberal Democrat gain.

Portchester East, Fareham: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 17% (kevinf) to 41% (Right Leaning).

Tillingbourne, Guildford: 5 Green gain from Conservative, with andrewp, batman, Right Leaning and Robert Waller Liberal Democrat gain, Tony Otim and yellowperil Residents gain and iainbhx Conservative hold.

Devauden, Monmouthshire: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with andrewp, batman, iainbhx and kevinf Conservative hold.

Moss Bank, St Helens: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 28% (andrewp and yellowperil) to 66% (Richard Cromwell).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13q4Nw1Jq5WUtHymE-zp15hJtpsr6CcCY9bWwlIjTd2E/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

Although I don't participate, I do watch the results, and it is very impressive how absolutely terrible our experts here are at predicting local by-elections. (That is of course why I don't participate, not wanting to make a complete fool of myself).

[batman]

Oct 21, 2022 7:13:23 GMT John Chanin said:

Oct 20, 2022 20:38:17 GMT robbienicoll said:

12 entries this week, all on time but with kevinf receiving 10 faults for only getting to 90 in Broadland.

Thorpe St Andrew North West, Broadland: 5 Labour gain from Conservative, with iainbhx, kevinf, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Conservative hold, johnloony, meurig and peterl Liberal Democrat gain.

Portchester East, Fareham: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 17% (kevinf) to 41% (Right Leaning).

Tillingbourne, Guildford: 5 Green gain from Conservative, with andrewp, batman, Right Leaning and Robert Waller Liberal Democrat gain, Tony Otim and yellowperil Residents gain and iainbhx Conservative hold.

Devauden, Monmouthshire: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, with andrewp, batman, iainbhx and kevinf Conservative hold.

Moss Bank, St Helens: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 28% (andrewp and yellowperil) to 66% (Richard Cromwell).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13q4Nw1Jq5WUtHymE-zp15hJtpsr6CcCY9bWwlIjTd2E/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

Although I don't participate, I do watch the results, and it is very impressive how absolutely terrible our experts here are at predicting local by-elections. (That is of course why I don't participate, not wanting to make a complete fool of myself).

that was my motivation for not participating for such a long time, but I thought it's hardly the end of the world if I get local by-election results wrong.

I was a bit surprised at some of the predictions for Thorpe St Andrew. I wondered if some people thought this is Broadland, there's a fairly strong Lib Dem recent tradition here, without remembering it's in the Norwich North constituency, which of course is a major Labour target. I might have erred towards a Labour gain in Monmouth but thought that with Labour in effective control of the council there, it was likely that there might be a slight anti-Labour reaction especially in such a rural ward. Nobody saw the Portchester result coming of course.

[batman]

Oct 21, 2022 6:47:33 GMT yellowperil said:

Oct 21, 2022 0:07:27 GMT Robert Waller said:

Very unofficial quick estimates from me, and I know we haven't had the actual numbers from Guildford, but I think batman may have won this week and moved up into second place for the month.

iainbhx still well ahead for the month, of course, after last week's devastating performance.

And as always of course those very unofficial quick estimates were spot on. Congrats to batman   for winning a tricky week.  And once again the class acts of andrewp and Robert Waller are moving up ready to pounce if any of the current front runners fall at the final hurdle.

thanks Robert & yellowperil.

[johnloony]

Derbyshire: Lab 46 Con 38 Grn 13 LD 3
Sandwell: Lab 51 Con 29 LD 8 Grn 7 TUSC 5

[peterl]

Derbyshire: Lab 48 Con 33 Grn 14 LD 5
Sandwell: Lab 55 Con 24 LD 11 Grn 8 TUSC 2

[Tony Otim]

Derbyshire: Con 41.6; Lab 40.8; LD 10.4; Grn 7.2
Sandwell: Lab 58.4; Con 34.2; LD 4.7; TUSC 1.8; Grn 0.9

[Richard Cromwell]

Long Eaton, Derbyshire

LAB	58%
CON	27%
LDEM	8%
GRN	7%

Wednesbury South, Sandwell

LAB	65%
CON	19%
LDEM	7%
GRN	6%
TUSC	3%

[rockefeller]

Wednesbury South

CON 50
LAB 40
LD 5
GRN 3
TUSC 2

CON gain from LAB

[kevinf]

Derbyshire
Lab 46, Con 45, LibDem 5, Green 4
Sandwell
Lab 53, Con 34, LibDem 6, Green 5, Tusc 2

[batman]

DERBYSHIRE, Long Eaton : Lab 49 C 41 LD 6 Green 4

SANDWELL, Wednesbury S. : Lab 52 C 36 Green 6 LD 4 TUSC 2

[andrewp]

Derbyshire. Long Eaton. Lab 45, Con 40, LD 8, Green 7
Sandwell. Wednesbury South. Lab 61, Con 29, Green 4, LD 4, TUSC 2

[Robert Waller]

Derbyshire, Long Eaton: Lab 51, Con 39, LD 5, Green 5

Sandwell, Wednesbury South: Lab 55, Con 25, Green 3, LD 15, TUSC 2

[iainbhx]

Derbyshire CC, Long Eaton: Lab 45 Con 38 LDm 10 Grn 7
Sandwell MBC, Wednesbury South: Lab 57 Con 26 LDm 8 Grn 6 TUSC 3

[rightleaning]

Derbyshire: Long Eaton. Lab 46, Con 41, LD 8, Green 5
Sandwell: Wednesbury South. Lab 54, Con 34, LD 6, Green 4, TUSC 2

[yellowperil]

Derbyshire, Long Eaton: Con 41, Lab 45, LD 7, GP 7.
Sandwell, Wednesbury South: Con 29, Lab 57, LD 6, GP 6, TUSC 2.