Prediction Competition - October 2022

[andrewp]

Epping Forest . Waltham Abbey SW Green 55, Con 45
Gloucester, Tuffley. Lab 53, Con 39, LD 8
Hartlepool. the Throston. Lab 46, Ind 32, Con 19, LD 3
Leicester. North Evington. Lab 57, Con 30, Green 6, LD 5, TUSC 2
Stockport. Edgeley and Cheadle Heath. Lab 68, LD 18, Green 14

[meurig]

Epping Forest
Con 62 Green 38
Gloucester
Lab 52 Con 34 LD 14
Hartlepool
Lab 50 Ind 38 Con 8 LD 4
Leicester
Lab 55 Con 22 LD 11 Green 9 Tusc 3
Stockport
Lab 63 LD 20 Green 17

Ready to come back to earth with a bump…

[Robert Waller]

Epping Forest, Waltham Abbey SW. Green 57, Con 43

Gloucester, Tuffley. Lab 45, Con 37, LD 18

Hartlepool, Throston. Lab 54, Ind 23, Con 18, LD 5

Leicester, North Evington. Lab 59, Con 28, Green 7, LD 4, TUSC 2

Stockport, Edgeley and Cheadle Heath. Lab 72, LD 14, Green 14

[yellowperil]

Epping Forest, Waltham Abbey SW: Con 47. GP 53.
Gloucester, Tuffley:Con 35, Lab 45, LD 20.
Hartlepool, Throston: Con 15, Lab 50. LD 5, Ind 30.
Leicester, North Evington: Con 28, Lab 57, LD 5. GP 8, TUSC 2.
Stockport, Edgeley & Cheadle Heath: Lab 66, LD 24, GP 16.

[rightleaning]

Epping Forest . Waltham Abbey SW Green 57, Con 43
Gloucester, Tuffley. Lab 51, Con 42, LD 7
Hartlepool. the Throston. Lab 46, Ind 29, Con 22, LD 3
Leicester. North Evington. Lab 54, Con 31, LD 8, Green 5, TUSC 2
Stockport. Edgeley and Cheadle Heath. Lab 61, LD 27, Green 12

[iainbhx]

Epping Forest DC, Walthan Abbey SW: Con 54, Grn 46
Gloucester DC, Tuffley: Lab 40, Con 36, LDm 24
Hartlepool UA, Throston: Lab 50, Ind 32, Con 14, LDm 4
Leicester UA, North Evington: Lab 43, Con 37, Grn 11, LDm 7, TUSC 2
Stockport MBC, Edgeley & Cheadle Heath, Lab 62, LDm 24, Grn 14

[robbienicoll]

12 full and 1 partial entry this week, with no casualobserver. All on time, but with yellowperil receiving 6 faults for going over in Stockport.

Waltham Abbey South West, Epping Forest: Equal split, with 6 Conservative gain from Green and 6 Green hold.

Tuffley, Gloucester: 100% Labour gain from Conservative, with majorities ranging from 4% (iainbhx) to 22% (Richard Cromwell).

Throston, Hartlepool: 11 Labour hold, majorities ranging from 12% (meurig) to 33% (batman). Kevinf Independent (Horton) gain with majority of 2%.

North Evington, Leicester: 12 Labour hold, majorities ranging from 2% (batman) to 53% (Richard Cromwell). Rockefeller Conservative gain with majority of 2%.

Edgeley and Cheadle Heath, Stockport: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 34% (Right Leaning) to 61% (johnloony).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1336c4jJjK23LehE2BvO52u6RIEjRd7bCU7qYI1vMEVw/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[yellowperil]

Ahh- the green figure in Stockport was definitely 10, not 16, and that was of course the last digit to go in, done in haste. I will defitely plead the Loony excuse- we all know who hacked my computer, don't we?

[yellowperil]

Final official results not yet in , but looks to me like a brilliant night for iainbhx .

And now that they are, it looks even more brilliant than I thought.

72 point lead on the month!

[johnloony]

Broadland: LD 40 Con 36 Lab 24
Fareham: LD 53 Con 27 Lab 13 Ind 7
Guildford: Green 35 Con 23 RGV 17 LD 14 Lab 11
Monmouthshire: Lab 33 Con 32 Green 16 LD 11 Ind 8
St Helens: Lab 64 LD 23 Con 13

[peterl]

Broadland: LD 44 Con 34 Lab 22
Fareham: LD 54 Con 26 Lab 12 Ind 8
Guildford: Green 38 Con 21 LD 17 RGV 15 Lab 9
Monmouthshire: Lab 38 Con 33 Green 13 LD 10 Ind 6
St Helens: Lab 65 LD 25 Con 10

[johnloony]

I’m going to make my prediction for Croydon SVF (3rd November) early because it’s likely that I will get access to privileged information later on:

Croydon: Con 55 Grn 28 Lab 18 LD 5 Ind 4

[batman]

BROADLAND, Thorpe St Andrew NW : Lab 45 C 37 LD 18

FAREHAM, Portchester E : LD 54 C 23 Lab 13 Ind 10

GUILDFORD, Tillingbourne : LD 33 Green 31 C 20 R 12 Lab 4

MONMOUTHSHIRE, Devauden : C 40 Lab 39  Green 9 LD 8 Ind 4

ST HELENS, Moss Bank : Lab 62 LD 24 C 14

[kevinf]

Broadland
Con 39 LibDem 31 Lab 20
Fareham
LibDem 45, Con 28, Lab 15, Ind 12
Guildford
Green 33, Con 25, LibDem 19, Residents 18, Lab 5
Monmouthshire
Con 33, Lab 30, LibDem 15, Green 12, Ind 10
St Helens
Lab 60, LibDem 25, Con 15

[Tony Otim]

Broadland: Con 36.7; Lab 34.5; LD 28.8
Fareham: LD 54.7; Con 27.8; Lab 12.3; FI 5.2
Guildford: RGV 29.3; Con 26.7; LD 20.8; Grn 19.2; Lab 4.0
Monmouthshire: Lab 38.2; Con 31.7; LD 19.4; Webb 7.1; Grn 3.6
St Helens: Lab 61.1; LD 24.4; Con 14.5

[Richard Cromwell]

Moss Bank, St. Helens

LAB	79%
CON	13%
LDEM	8%

Devauden, Monmouthshire

LAB	41%
CON	36%
GRN	12%
LDEM	9%
IND	2%

Tillingbourne, Guildford

GRN	37%
LAB	22%
CON	21%
LDEM	19%
Residents	1%

Portchester East, Fareham

LDEM	51%
CON	23%
LAB	19%
IND	7%

Thorpe St Andrew North West, Broadland

LAB	53%
CON	30%
LDEM	17%

[andrewp]

Broadland. Thorpe St Andrew Nw Lab 36, Con 32, LD 32
Fareham. Port Chester East . LD 57, Con 25, Fig 10, Lab 8
Guildford. Tillingbourne. LD 29,Con 23, Green 23, Res 20, Lab 5
Monmouthshire. Devauden. Con 35, Lab 34, LD 17, Ind 10, Green 4
St Helens, Moss Bank. Lab 58, LD 30, Con 12

[meurig]

Broadland
LD 38 Con 32 Lab 30
Fareham
LD 52 Con 24 Ind 14 Lab 10
Guildford
Green 38 Con 28 LD 23 Lab 9 Res 2
Monmouth
Lab 34 Con 29 Ind 24 LD 7 Green 6
St Helens
Lab 66 LD 20 Con 14

[Robert Waller]

Broadland: Con 38; Lab 36; LD 26

Fareham: LD 59; Con 26; Lab 10; FI 5

Guildford: RGV 29; Con 23; LD 31; Grn 11; Lab 6

Monmouthshire: Lab 33; Con 32; LD 13; Webb 15; Grn 7

St Helens: Lab 64; LD 26; Con 10

[yellowperil]

Broadland, Thorpe St Andrew NW: Con 30, Lab 39, LD 31.
Fareham, Portchester E: Con 23, Lab 9, LD 58, Ind 10.
Guildford, Tillingbourne: Con 22, Lab 5, LD 24, GP 24, RGV 25.
Monmouthshire, Devauden: Con 32, Lab 38, LD  12, GP 7,Ind 11.
St. Helens, Moss Bank: Con 12, Lab 58, LD 30.