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Post by andrewp on Oct 6, 2022 13:29:59 GMT
I think Lampeter is a bit of a wild card this week, with the loss of a very longstanding incumbent, it could produce a very different result, although most of us have gone for quite conservative predictions... Well , quite, and with a Ceredigion specialist appearing just at the deadline and with a plausible but very different Lampeter scenario, I fear the worst there for the rest of us. The other Meurig forecasts look pretty well in line with the rest of us, so the overall result could be ... interesting. I noticed everyone went quite safe with Lampeter. I did too. I was very tempted to go with a big Plaid win, until I found out that the Indy had some more local links than I had previously thought. So I went with Labour holding , even though I think they might be the 3rd most likely winner. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Oct 7, 2022 8:52:11 GMT
13 entries to open the month, with welcome returns from iainbhx and casualobserver and a maiden appearance from meurig, but unfortunately missing greenhert. All on time, with kevinf receiving 10 faults for having a phantom Labour candidate instead of UKIP in Eastbourne. Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath East, Birmingham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 32% (andrewp) to 85% (Richard Cromwell). Highcliffe and Walkford, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole: 100% Christchurch Independent hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (meurig) to 35% (andrewp and iainbhx). Lampeter, Ceredigion: 11 Labour hold, with meurig Plaid Cymru gain and casualobserver Independent (Cowles) gain. St Anthony, Eastbourne: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 25% (kevinf) to 57% (johnloony). Butleigh and Baltonsborough, Mendip: 100% Liberal Democrat gain, with majorities ranging from 8% (batman) to 22% (peterl). Bridgnorth and Tasley, Shropshire: 12 Labour gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 3% (batman) to 46% (Richard Cromwell). Kevinf Conservative hold with majority of 2%. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yBUmoA9qN81R1g5Iag2RkLODoGtZjSv0w-Ii3odJfLc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck as we wait for BCP to declare! The exception to the 100 cap rule is in place in Lampeter, namely that over 50% of entrants scored over 100 so the cap is nullified. Quite an excellent start for meurig! |
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Post by kevinf on Oct 7, 2022 9:11:07 GMT
Congrats to meurig on a winning start.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 7, 2022 9:58:04 GMT
Congrats to meurig on a winning start. Yes well done to Meurig who clearly knows his Welsh elections better than the rest of us (lowish bar it seems) and that spreads over at least to include Shropshire! Clearly we could have done with his expertise on the Prediction Competition before, given that he has been around on the forum since its beginning and indeeed I believe on the old forum before that (not that I was there so I can't be sure!). |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 7, 2022 10:36:32 GMT
13 entries to open the month, with welcome returns from iainbhx and casualobserver and a maiden appearance from meurig, but unfortunately missing greenhert. All on time, with kevinf receiving 10 faults for having a phantom Labour candidate instead of UKIP in Eastbourne. Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath East, Birmingham: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 32% (andrewp) to 85% (Richard Cromwell). Highcliffe and Walkford, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole: 100% Christchurch Independent hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (meurig) to 35% (andrewp and iainbhx). Lampeter, Ceredigion: 11 Labour hold, with meurig Plaid Cymru gain and casualobserver Independent (Cowles) gain. St Anthony, Eastbourne: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 25% (kevinf) to 57% (johnloony). Butleigh and Baltonsborough, Mendip: 100% Liberal Democrat gain, with majorities ranging from 8% (batman) to 22% (peterl). Bridgnorth and Tasley, Shropshire: 12 Labour gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 3% (batman) to 46% (Richard Cromwell). Kevinf Conservative hold with majority of 2%. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yBUmoA9qN81R1g5Iag2RkLODoGtZjSv0w-Ii3odJfLc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck as we wait for BCP to declare! The exception to the 100 cap rule is in place in Lampeter, namely that over 50% of entrants scored over 100 so the cap is nullified. Quite an excellent start for meurig! I am fascinated by the workings of this rule when there is a total catastrophic bit of prediction. In the event 5 managed to be under 100 and 8 above that. Had the two just above the 100 ( in this case Tony and Peter) done slightly better and kept in the 90's, the 100 cap might have applied and the main benefit would have been for the 6 doing worse than that who woud have saved something like 10 to 20 faults each. As it is the main beneficiaries are those of us who "only" had 70 or 80 faults and thus gained a significant advantage. So I'm not complaining, just intrigued! |
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Post by robbienicoll on Oct 7, 2022 11:27:00 GMT
I am fascinated by the workings of this rule when there is a total catastrophic bit of prediction. In the event 5 managed to be under 100 and 8 above that. Had the two just above the 100 ( in this case Tony and Peter) done slightly better and kept in the 90's, the 100 cap might have applied and the main benefit would have been for the 6 doing worse than that who woud have saved something like 10 to 20 faults each. As it is the main beneficiaries are those of us who "only" had 70 or 80 faults and thus gained a significant advantage. So I'm not complaining, just intrigued! Yes this had crossed my mind too, it's not the best example of the rule working which would be more for instances of everyone bar one or two going over 100. Luckily you're all so good it doesn't happen often! |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Oct 7, 2022 13:04:41 GMT
Thursday October 13th 2022
EPPING FOREST DC; Waltham Abbey South West Conservative 54 Green 46
GLOUCESTER DC; Tuffley Labour 52 Conservative 35 Lib Dem 13
HARTLEPOOL UA; Throston Labour 49 Independent 29 Conservative 12 Lib Dem 10
LEICESTER UA; North Evington Labour 45 Conservative 31 Green 12 Lib Dem 9 TUSC 3
STOCKPORT MBC; Edgeley & Cheadle Heath Labour 72 Green 16 Lib Dem 12
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 7, 2022 13:25:07 GMT
Could robbienicoll perhaps check the Bournemouth scores, given the discussion on the local elections thread? |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 7, 2022 13:55:33 GMT
Could robbienicoll perhaps check the Bournemouth scores, given the discussion on the local elections thread? Yes, I knew my quick rough figures were different from Robbie's , and I had just assumed I'd made a few small calculation errors and took his as gospel, but yes it's the transposing of the digits in the Con result, isn't it?Nobody could believe a Conservative in Highcliffe could do that badly, I think.  |
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Post by grahammurray on Oct 7, 2022 13:58:38 GMT
Could robbienicoll perhaps check the Bournemouth scores, given the discussion on the local elections thread? |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,532
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Oct 7, 2022 15:58:09 GMT
I didn’t realise that there was a cap of 100 points on the prediction competition (and thus I didn’t know that there were circumstances in which the cap can be lifted) but I don’t think there should be.
Where is the list of rules for the competition? I can’t find which thread it’s in
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 7, 2022 18:28:19 GMT
Thanks to Robbie for updating. I think rightleaning won the week in the end, did he not? |
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Post by rockefeller on Oct 10, 2022 6:20:18 GMT
LEICESTER, North Evington - CON 39% LAB 37% LD 11% GRN 10% TUSC 3%
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,368
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Post by batman on Oct 10, 2022 10:52:16 GMT
EPPING FOREST, Waltham Abbey SW : C 53 Green 47
GLOUCESTER, Tuffley : Lab 52 C 35 LD 13
HARTLEPOOL, Throston : Lab 54 Ind 21 C 18 LD 7
LEICESTER, N.Evington : Lab 44 C 42 Green 6 LD 5 TUSC 3
STOCKPORT, Edgeley & Cheadle Heath : Lab 74 LD 15 Green 11
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Oct 10, 2022 16:36:35 GMT
Epping Fot: Green 61 Con 39
Gloucester: Lab 54 Con 34 LD 12
Hartlepool: Lab 48 Ind 27 Con 14 LD 11
Leicester: Lab 57 Con 28 Green 7 LD 6 TUSC 2
Stockport: Lab 76 Green 15 LD 9
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Post by kevinf on Oct 11, 2022 13:37:13 GMT
Epping Forest
Con 51 Green 49
Gloucester
Lab 50, Con 40, LibDem 10
Hartlepool
Ind 40, Lab 38, LibDem 12, Con 10
Leicester
Lab 44, Con 24, Green 17, LibDem 13, Tusc 2
Stockport
Lab 70, LibDem 20, Green 10
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 11, 2022 20:22:29 GMT
Epping Forest: Grn 57.2; Con 42.8
Gloucester: Lab 44.2; Con 39.1; LD 16.7
Hartlepool: Lab 52.9; Horton 24.9; Con 19.6; LD 2.6
Leicester: Lab 49.2; Con 38.7; LD 6.1; Grn 4.5; TUSC 1.5
Stockport: Lab 75.5; LD 17.1; Grn 7.4
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Oct 12, 2022 10:45:55 GMT
Waltham Abbey South West, Epping ForestEdgeley and Cheadle Heath, StockportThroston, HartlepoolNorth Evington, Leicester City| LAB | 69% | | CON | 9% | | GRN | 16% | | LDEM | 5% | | TUSC | 1% |
Tuffley, Gloucester |
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Post by mattbewilson on Oct 12, 2022 12:23:46 GMT
Epping Forest Con 51 Green 49 Gloucester Lab 50, Con 40, LibDem 10 Hartlepool Ind 40, Lab 38, LibDem 12, Con 10 Leicester Lab 44, Con 24, Green 17, LibDem 13, Tusc 2 Stockport Lab 70, LibDem 20, Green 10 that would be one of the best scores the greens ever had in Leicester |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 12, 2022 18:49:41 GMT
Epping Forest Con 51 Green 49 Gloucester Lab 50, Con 40, LibDem 10 Hartlepool Ind 40, Lab 38, LibDem 12, Con 10 Leicester Lab 44, Con 24, Green 17, LibDem 13, Tusc 2 Stockport Lab 70, LibDem 20, Green 10 that would be one of the best scores the greens ever had in Leicester They were doing really well at one point in the not too distant past until their 'leader' left and went to Brighton (of course). |
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