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Post by batman on Sept 30, 2022 6:50:35 GMT
Have to get my predictions for next week's by-election in early because I'm off on holiday!
EASTBOURNE, St Anthony's : LD 59 C 27 Green 10 UKIP 4
BIRMINGHAM, Sparkbrook & Balsall Heath E. : Lab 64 C 20 LD 8 WP 5 Green 3
BOURNEMOUTH, CHRISTCHURCH & POOLE, Highcliffe & Walkford : Ind 50 C 28 LD 12 Lab 10
CEREDIGION, Lampeter : Lab 51 Ind 29 PC 13 LD 7
MENDIP, Butleigh & Baltonsborough : LD 54 C 46
SHROPSHIRE, Bridgnorth W. & Tasley : Lab 41 C 38 LD 15 Green 6
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 30, 2022 6:58:57 GMT
Have to get my prediction for next week's by-election in early because I'm off on holiday! EASTBOURNE, St Anthony's : LD 59 C 27 Green 10 UKIP 4 There's a few more than that one. Someone beat Tony to the first post. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 2, 2022 8:21:47 GMT
Eastbourne: LD 71 Grn 14 Con 13 UKIP 2
Birmingham: Lab 68 Con 12 Grn 9 LD 8 WPB 3
Bournemouth: ChInd 50 Con 23 LD 19 Lab 8
Ceredigion: Lab 45 Ind 30 PC 20 LD 5
Mendip: LD 58 Con 42
Shropshire: Lab 48 Con 31 Grn 11 LD 10
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Post by robbienicoll on Oct 2, 2022 12:20:08 GMT
There appears to be 18 by-elections during October.
- 6 by-elections on 6 October
- 5 on 13 October
- 5 on 20 October
- 2 on 27 October
7 by-elections are for District Councils, 1 of which was last contested in May, 2 in 2021 and the remaining 4 in 2019
4 are for a unitary authority, 1 last contested in May, 1 in 2021, 1 in a 2021 by election with the last election in 2019 and a further 1 in 2019
4 are for Metropolitan councils, all of which were last contested in May
2 are for Welsh councils, both last contested in May
1 is for a County Council last contested in 2021
Conservatives defend 7 seats, all following the death of the previous councillor
Labour defend 7 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 4 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 2 seats, both following resignations
Greens defend 1 seat following a disqualification
Christchurch Independents defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
With all SOPNs now published, there are 17 Liberal Democrat candidates, 16 Conservatives, 15 Labour, 10 Greens, 2 TUSC and 1 apiece for the Workers Party, Plaid Cymru, UKIP, Christchurch Independents, Fareham Independents and Residents for Guildford and Villages together with 3 Independents contesting 3 seats
- a total of 69 candidates for 18 seats.
Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Oct 2, 2022 12:24:29 GMT
Eastbourne: LD 68 Grn 18 Con 11 UKIP 3
Birmingham: Lab 70 Grn 13 Con 8 LD 7 WPB 2
Bournemouth: ChInd 51 LD 21 Con 18 Lab 10
Ceredigion: Lab 42 Ind 32 PC 18 LD 8
Mendip: LD 61 Con 39
Shropshire: Lab 49 Con 25 Grn 14 LD 12
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Post by kevinf on Oct 5, 2022 12:44:05 GMT
Eastbourne
LD 50, Con 25, Green 15, Lab 10
Birmingham
Lab 60, Con 20, Green 15, LD 4, WP 1
BCP
Ch Ind 50, Con 25, Lab 15, LD 10
Ceredigion
Lab 45, Ins 35, PC 15, LD 5
Me dip
LD 55, Con 45
Shropshire
Con 41, Lab 39, LD 12, Green 8
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Oct 5, 2022 13:32:36 GMT
Sparkbrook & Balsall Heath East, Birmingham| LAB | 90% | | CON | 5% | | GRN | 3% | | LDEM | 2% | | Workers Party of Britain | 0% |
Highcliffe & Walkford, Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole| Christchurch Independents | 46% | | CON | 23% | | LAB | 18% | | LDEM | 13% |
Lampeter, Ceredigion| LAB | 54% | | IND | 23% | | Plaid Cymru | 14% | | LDEM | 9% |
Butleigh and Baltonsborough, MendipBridgnorth West and Tasley, ShropshireSt Anthony's, Eastbourne| LDEM | 45% | | GRN | 21% | | UKIP | 20% | | CON | 14% |
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 5, 2022 19:43:02 GMT
Birmingham MBC, Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath East: Lab 71 Con 12 LDm 10 Grn 5 WPB 2
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole UA, Highcliffe & Walkford: ChiInd 55 Con 20 LDm 17 Lab 8
Ceredigion WUA, Lampeter/Llanbedr Pont Steffan: Lab 42 Ind 35 PC 13 LDm 10
Eastbourne DC, St Anthony's: LDm 60 Con 25 Grn 12 UKIP 3
Mendip DC, Butleigh and Baltonsborough: LDm 58 Con 42
Shropshire UA, Bridgnorth West & Tasley: Lab 46 Con 38 LDm 11 Grn 5
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 5, 2022 20:01:17 GMT
Eastbourne LD 50, Con 25, Green 15, Lab 10 Birmingham Lab 60, Con 20, Green 15, LD 4, WP 1 BCP Ch Ind 50, Con 25, Lab 15, LD 10 Ceredigion Lab 45, Ins 35, PC 15, LD 5 Me dip LD 55, Con 45 Shropshire Con 41, Lab 39, LD 12, Green 8 - You have a phantom Labour candidate in place of a Kipper - whether you think the Kipper would get 10% may be another issue. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 5, 2022 21:02:14 GMT
Birmingham: Lab 72.8; Con 16.3; LD 6.1; Grn 4.0; WP 0.8
BCP: CI 53.9; Con 24.9; LD 12.0; Lab 9.2
Ceredigion: Lab 37.0; Cowles 32.3; PC 21.3; LD 9.4
Eastbourne: LD 62.7; Con 17.3; Grn 13.8; UKIP 6.2
Mendip: LD 58.2; Con 41.8
Shropshire: Lab 41.0; Con 33.2; LD 21.1; Grn 4.7
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Post by andrewp on Oct 5, 2022 21:46:55 GMT
Birmingham. Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath East. Lab 60. Con 28, Green 5, LD 5, WP 2
BCP, Highcliffe and Walkford. Christchurch 58, Con 23: LD 12, Lab 7
Ceredigion. Lampeter, Lab 39, PC 30, Ind 24, LD 7
Eastbourne. St Anthony’s. LD 63, Con 20. Green 12, UKIP 5
Mendip. Butleigh and Baltonsborough. LD 55, Con 45
Shropshire. Bridgnorth West and Tasley. Lab 45, Con 32, LD 18, Green 5
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 5, 2022 22:40:36 GMT
Birmingham, Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath East: Lab 66, Con 23, Green 5, LD 5, WP 1
BCP, Highcliffe and Walkford: Christchurch 50, Con 25, LD 15, Lab 10
Ceredigion, Lampeter: Lab 40, PC 30, Ind 20, LD 10
Eastbourne, St Anthony’s: LD 68, Con 25, Green 5, UKIP 2
Mendip, Butleigh and Baltonsborough: LD 60, Con 40
Shropshire, Bridgnorth West and Tasley: Lab 39, Con 35, LD 19, Green 7
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2022 1:34:19 GMT
Birmingham, Sparkbrook & Balsall Heath: Con 17, Lab 68, LD 8, GP 5, WPB 2.
Bournemouth Christchurch Poole, Highcliffe & Walkford:Con 24, Lab 9, LD 16, Ind 51.
Ceredigion, Lampeter: Lab 40, LD 9, PC 32, Ind 19.
Eastbourne, St Anthony's:Con 23, LD 67, GP 6, UKIP 4.
Mendip, Butleigh & Baltonsborough:Con 42, LD 58.
Shropshire,Bridgnorth West & Tasley:Con 33, Lab 44, LD 20,GP 3
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Post by casualobserver on Oct 6, 2022 3:14:18 GMT
Eastbourne: LD 65; C 23; G 10; UKIP 2
Birmingham: Lab 65; C 19; G 9; LD 6; WP 1
BCP: ChInd 48; C 24; Lab 14; LD 14
Ceredigion: Ind 40; Lab 38; PC 16; LD 6
Mendip: LD 59; Con 41
Shropshire: Lab 42;C 35; LD 14;G 9
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Post by rightleaning on Oct 6, 2022 4:05:59 GMT
Birmingham, Sparkbrook & Balsall Heath: Lab 64, Con 19, LD 8, GP 6, WPB 3.
Bournemouth Christchurch Poole, Highcliffe & Walkford: Ind 54, Con 22, LD 18, Lab 6,
Ceredigion, Lampeter: Lab 38, PC 32, Ind 20, LD 10,
Eastbourne, St Anthony's: LD 64, Con 24, GP 10, UKIP 2.
Mendip, Butleigh & Baltonsborough: LD 56, Con 44,
Shropshire, Bridgnorth West & Tasley: Lab 42, Con 34, LD 21, GP 3
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Post by meurig on Oct 6, 2022 7:47:14 GMT
Hoping for sone beginners’ luck
Birmingham
Lab 64 Con 22 LD 8 G 4 WP 2
Bournemouth
Ind 38 Con 32 LD 16 Lab 14
Ceredigion
PC 58 Lab 19 LD 17 Ind 6
Eastbourne
LD 68 Con 16 G 14 Ukip 2
Mendip
LD 55 Con 45
Shropshire
Lab 48 Con 32 LD 12 G 8
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2022 8:37:55 GMT
Hoping for sone beginners’ luck Birmingham Lab 64 Con 22 LD 8 G 4 WP 2 Bournemouth Ind 38 Con 32 LD 16 Lab 14 Ceredigion PC 58 Lab 19 LD 17 Ind 6 Eastbourne LD 68 Con 16 G 14 Ukip 2 Mendip LD 55 Con 45 Shropshire Lab 48 Con 32 LD 12 G 8 Well, the first bit of luck is making the deadline with a few minutes to spare... The second bit of luck might come if you have inside knowledge of Lampeter.... |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 6, 2022 9:14:24 GMT
Hoping for sone beginners’ luck Birmingham Lab 64 Con 22 LD 8 G 4 WP 2 Bournemouth Ind 38 Con 32 LD 16 Lab 14 Ceredigion PC 58 Lab 19 LD 17 Ind 6 Eastbourne LD 68 Con 16 G 14 Ukip 2 Mendip LD 55 Con 45 Shropshire Lab 48 Con 32 LD 12 G 8 Well, the first bit of luck is making the deadline with a few minutes to spare... The second bit of luck might come if you have inside knowledge of Lampeter.... I think Lampeter is a bit of a wild card this week, with the loss of a very longstanding incumbent, it could produce a very different result, although most of us have gone for quite conservative predictions... |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2022 9:34:51 GMT
Well, the first bit of luck is making the deadline with a few minutes to spare... The second bit of luck might come if you have inside knowledge of Lampeter.... I think Lampeter is a bit of a wild card this week, with the loss of a very longstanding incumbent, it could produce a very different result, although most of us have gone for quite conservative predictions... Well , quite, and with a Ceredigion specialist appearing just at the deadline and with a plausible but very different Lampeter scenario, I fear the worst there for the rest of us. The other Meurig forecasts look pretty well in line with the rest of us, so the overall result could be ... interesting. |
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Post by meurig on Oct 6, 2022 10:51:00 GMT
We’ll see if I’m coming up roses or looking like a right prat tomorrow. And I will try my luck the rest of the month too.
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